Komal Sri-Kumar Predictions
President of Sri Kumar Global Strategies
Track Komal Sri-Kumar's public market predictions and forecast accuracy. Each prediction is recorded from the date it was published to its estimated deadline, then graded correct or wrong based on the outcome.
- Rankings only reflect predictions tracked on this site and do not represent a predictor's full record.
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[8:14] I expect as well that there are going to be two hikes, of which one occurred today and the second one will occur not in October meeting, but in the December meeting. The end of October Federal Open Market Committee meeting will be barely four days before the midterm elections. Typically, the Fed does not hike just before the elections and I don't think it'll happen this time, either. The second hike, I think will take place at the December meeting. So, yes, I I am in the camp expecting two hikes in calendar year 2026.
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[28:10] So, as you look out into 2027, uh that is not the end of it because the Fed has to increase interest rate. Keep in mind the dot plot that was put out this afternoon showed no no interest rate increases in 2027. I think that is unrealistic. They show that inflation comes down to the 2% level, their target, only in 2029. And yet they are assuming no increase in interest rate in 2027. And that to me doesn't make any sense. I think they'll have to keep increasing interest rates unless they get cooperation on the fiscal side.
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[23:21] Do you expect this number to be higher or lower next year? I expect this number to be lower next year because even the rich be even the affluent are probably going to cut back on the spending as you go into much higher oil prices and much higher prices of all the goods and services.
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[27:32] You're going to see inflation stay elevated, especially because the Iran war and the closing of the East-West pipeline in Saudi Arabia is going to put upward pressure on oil prices as well. Those are going to be significant. They have not been reflected yet in the consumer price inflation numbers. They will come out for September, October numbers.
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[7:34] I would say that the direction of oil price is higher, even though there are fluctuations in the short term. So, the impact on inflation is going to be upward because there is no short-term correction coming down of the oil price anytime soon.
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[14:46] By just setting up task forces and waiting for another 6 to 9 months to make a decision he's going to make the inflation situation significantly worse by the beginning of 2027.
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[17:17] So, I think we have September, I'm going to say they should hike up by 50 basis points because they've been so inactive for such a long time. But, is that going to happen? No, it will not. At most, you're going to have a 25 basis point increase taking place.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
The Fed raised rates by exactly 25 basis points at its September 15–16, 2026 meeting, bringing the federal funds rate to 3.75%–4.00%, matching the prediction's 'at most 25 basis points' ceiling precisely. (https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a1.htm)
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[35:12] My view has been and it continues to be that unless Kevin Walsh changes his policy and provides us some guidance on how he's headed, there is going to be more volatility. We saw that today. And I if he is not going to change the way he acts, we are going to have lot more volatility during the months to come.
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[13:42] I agree with market expectations. I have been saying on your show, David, as well as in my writings, even before the Iran war, that the Fed should be increasing the interest rate to keep inflation under control... interest rate increases perhaps more than one is more likely than interest rate being kept the same or even cut as the president would want it to happen.
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[14:24] even if oil price doesn't go up it is going to take a while for inflation to come under control. All of those say to me in answer to your question that interest rate increases perhaps more than one is more likely than interest rate being kept the same or even cut as the president would want it to happen.
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[33:23] this year I think as you because of the fear of inflation the second half of the year I think we will see the growth rate uh coming down under pressure uh coming under pressure because despite the fact that today we had some very good retail sales numbers employment has continued to be very strong but typically when you have a shock that registers itself suddenly it does not happen gradually
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[35:17] the absence of forward guidance in my opinion is that there is going to be more uncertainty, more volatility in markets uh which you would not have had if the Fed had given you proper guidance in the past.
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[9:59] My expectation is that the tapering of the balance sheet, what is known as quantitative tightening is unlikely to resume anytime soon... I don't think it is going to happen anytime soon
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[6:55] instead the inflation is moving away toward the 3 to 3 12% range
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[35:25] and energy I think has clearly more uh leeway to go up because oil prices are going to increase further. So I think they are going to do well.
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[35:48] Healthcare is an area which should do well.
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[35:50] technology, AI, be very careful where you invest. They've gone up substantially and they are the ones who can be vulnerable to a decline.
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[6:28] So my expectation more rather than less. I'm going to expect one more cut in January to take place.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
The Fed held rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% at its January 27-28, 2026 meeting, not cutting by 25 basis points as predicted. The FOMC voted to maintain the target range unchanged, pausing after three consecutive cuts in the fall of 2025. (https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260128a.htm)
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[17:24] 2026 I expect the inflation rate to be anywhere 3 higher than 3%.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
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[17:58] And my expectation is you you are moving toward a recession in 2026.
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[31:40] I expect before the end of 2026 we'll be at 5,000.
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[5:29] I think happen again on Friday with the Fed's favorite measure the PCE core inflation rate which is going to show an increase
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The BEA released the July 2025 PCE report on Friday, August 29, 2025, showing core PCE inflation rose to 2.9% year-over-year, up from 2.8% in June 2025 — confirming the prediction of an increase. (https://www.bea.gov/news/2025/personal-income-and-outlays-july-2025)
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[12:09] you're going to have higher inflation in the coming months of this uh half of the year and perhaps at the beginning of 2026
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
The prediction that inflation would be higher in H2 2025 and early 2026 proved wrong. CPI fell from ~3.01% in September 2025 to 2.74% in November, 2.7% in December, and further to 2.4% in January and February 2026 — a clear downward trend, not an increase. (https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_01132026.htm)
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[23:08] I think there is still an increase coming in the price of gold and I've been saying that when it was at the beginning of the year it was about 2600 an ounce and we are about $800 higher and I still find it very attractive in terms of where they can go
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
The prediction claimed gold prices would 'continue to increase from current levels around $3,400 per ounce,' and the period high reached $4,556.3 (a 35.1% increase from the $3,373.8 prediction date price), far exceeding the bullish claim of continued increases.
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[0:00] You are going to see the equities which rallied yesterday and today they are going to tank again in a big way.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
The prediction claimed equities would 'tank again in a big way,' but the period low of $5433.24 represents only a 1.7% decline from the prediction date price of $5528.75, which does not constitute a significant crash, while the period high reached 5% gains, contradicting the bearish forecast.