[16:39] you can be sure in the next couple years. This DEM cycle will reverse the volume demand will continue up but the pricing will go down and you will see a crushing of Micron's earnings.

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[26:27] So I do think eventually this real rate move will end and then inflation will catch up to nominal rates. And I do think that this modest dollar rally is going to roll over again. So I think gold's a buy on this pullback.

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[22:28] and why I think they're certainly not cutting but I disagree with the market and thinking that they're going to hike I think Kevin Worsh is just going to sit tight for a while... these task forces may go through year end. So that gives me another reason why I think they're doing nothing this year.

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[29:31] I think the yen is just way way too cheap and the BOJ is going to have to do something and and maybe continuously raise rates this year which will eventually bring that money back.

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[19:46] But now I think that they've been thrown out to the point where they're dirt cheap with generous uh dividend yields and I do think a stabilization in their businesses that I think are be will be reflected when we see uh earnings coming uh over the next couple weeks.

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[22:41] We are about to be at a deficit for gold. Again, six-year running for silver for current demand. Not even talking about extra data centers or electrification, resupplying defense departments around. None of that just is current demand.

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[15:00] I think under Wor, he's not going to be able to dial that back. He's not going to be able to take away the end of QT because I don't think it's in the best interest of the US Treasury. It's not in the best interest of managing the inflation of the country in managing the cost of servicing the massive debt that keeps growing that the country has.

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[13:26] the Fed cannot control real assets as we're talking about gold now and silver and copper and aluminum and rare earth and uranium oil. It has it has no ability to control the supply chain at any level. So the idea of it being an arbit any central bank of of inflation by the tightening of some money in the long end is is is a bit it's it's a bit arbitrary.

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[20:51] So if I'm investing just on the sheer logic of all of that, the numbers, the supply and demand, the the value and and where it's coming from, I'm not going to buy treasuries, I'm going to buy gold. That's just that that just makes sense.

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[28:56] it's going to try to challenge a new level on the upside with the major area being at around 4190. And the fact that's about 130 from current pricing, so short-term, I would look for gold to continue to track higher.

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[31:43] I don't see gold going below uh 3920. I think that this set of bottoms would be where we have really strong support

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[5:56] I think the most likely path going forward is that we're going to see the Fed do a whole lot of nothing for some time to come.

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[27:07] I think the market starts betting that the Fed's at least going to go on the sidelines, which would take the 2-year Treasury down. So, I would say the shorter shorter tenure 10 ten years from here because they've blown out so much would be a good place to be.

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[30:17] I did say a few weeks ago publicly that I thought that um that we were definitely coming to the end of the consolidation era where a lot of the many of the tourists had been washed out of the trade and gotten to the point where it was feasible that uh that this was time for fundamental players in the space to come to come tiptoeing back in.

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[8:24] if you want to look at the trade for the next six nine months, it's really that stagflation trade, that slower economy, midterm elections, the fiscal you're you're really going to see a fiscal uh control put in Washington. In other words, less deficit spending, slower growth, sticky inflation, and and that's a really good recipe for um Agneo Eagle, AEM equity, GDX, and the gold miners. It's pounding the table by down here.

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[11:21] you could see some of the trades like healthcare names like the the sectors that do well if Democrats win are starting to outperform. And so just look at look at look at healthcare versus the semiconductors since the quarter end month end that that June 30th. Um healthcare is really starting to dramatically outperform.

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[33:27] I think gold's within the next couple years, gold is going to be 6,500 and uh that that's a great riskreward right here.

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[30:24] the gold miners could like triple from here and they would still own if the gold miners triple from here right now all the gold miners combined gold and silver are worth I think 700 billion dollars right so if they triple you Oh, they're not not even half the size of Nvidia

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[36:32] that's why we have like a I think a guaranteed credit crisis in the next year, year and a half, two years.

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[41:24] in the end, the Fed's going to be forced into some type of yield curve control just like the Bank of Japan where the you can have you can force the banks to buy more treasuries, but the Fed's going to have to come in and buy more treasuries some point in the next year and a half, two years.

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[24:54] I think is going to guarantee us a huge inflation bounce in the third, fourth quarter

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[3:42] Well, I'm in complete agreement with Jeremy Grantham that we're in the greatest bubble in stock bubble in US history. and he he thinks you're going to have a great crash. The stocks are going to decline 70%. Or more. Um, I'm not sure that will happen, but I know this is the this I agree with him that this is the greatest bubble

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[20:32] Google's depreciation expenses are going to rise from uh what was 17% up to up to 35% by 2028. So they're going to see the depreciation expenses double. Um so this is the problem is that you have a gigantic uh uh market cap that's being fed by these uh the mag seven hyperscalers. Uh and yet uh it doesn't look like right now the way things are trending that they're going to get the cash flows that they thought they were going to get.

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[19:18] I believe some of these companies will end up going bankrupt. I mean, Oracle has um their debt is two and a half times their sales from last year. It's just enormous amounts of debt that has been poured on into this market.

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[16:28] I personally I'm expecting gold to jump around within $500 of where it is right now for the next year.

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[4:57] I think you know, the gold and silver and copper prices have got to go up, and I mean that over the long term, the next few years.

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[26:16] It might be frothy right now, but if I look 2 years out, uh it's cheap.

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[6:08] I've been of the belief for the last couple years that uh 3 to 4% is the new inflation normal uh no longer 1 to 2%. And I still think that's the case.

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[6:37] I think the Fed's going to do nothing. I think inflation is going to vaccillate between these two sides.

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[12:28] I think at the end of the day, oil prices won't be sitting in the 70s. It'll be sitting more in the 80s and '90s uh as people realize how difficult it is to to manage the situation with Iran.

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[23:11] I I I I mean I still think we inevitably retest 5%. Which is where we we got to in the in 2023.

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[23:19] I I I I think we're in a bond bear market. I've been saying that for years. We're in a bond bear market. It is global and it follows the epic possibly the greatest financial bubble in the history of bubbles in terms of dollars when we had $18 trillion of negative yielding bonds. This is the flip side of that and I think it continues in the years to come.

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[2:57] I do think that there is a a major transition taking place here away from MAG 7 and uh I I do think that uh that's notable considering those stocks have been the leaders over the last 15 plus years.

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[18:58] I think going forward from here the anything else trade is going to do better than the AI tech trade.

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[34:06] I also do think you have a big picture story of stockpiling that is going to happen for the next couple years in a variety of different commodities as no one wants to get caught short like they did with the strait.

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[8:07] I'm still bullish on a lot of things. But I I want to explain myself and and that's why I'll get to the to the slide deck if that makes sense.

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[13:39] demand for compute is still going up. We don't even know, but let's say five or six times a year and and supply is just not staying not not not keeping up. And so, the question at some point it will and every time I talk to investors they're like, you know, when do you think that'll happen? It doesn't seem like it's happening anytime soon. But let's just say that we don't know when it's going to happen. It seems to us a ways out. That's why I think you just have to stay fully invested.

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[15:47] I'm a I'm a little worried um about them. And then the last one is just what I would call that the software companies. And I think they don't have a moat is I guess my point. Most of their profits, Adam, uh to your to your point, actually just come because they jacked up prices. They're not even increased volumes that much.

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[25:17] the valuations of the top 10, you may not see the numbers, are almost the same as their um as the their average over this time period. So, the average is about 20.8 times forward earnings, and they're about 21.6 times. So, there's not a some kind of valuation distortion, Adam, and that's why I think we can be, you know, really comfortable um just riding this wave.

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[29:20] Uh, absolutely. Um, and and in prior quarters, right? We've talked about the AI, what we call the AI 2.0 trade. Mhm. You need the old world, uh, to supply the new world and, um, I don't think I included the price of copper in here, but, uh, that's just that's just one example and I and I think it's sustainable that that kind of demand, um, and and shortage because this CapEx build out is, uh, is really tremendous

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[36:51] Well, let me let me tell you who I think is a little bit too hot. Um, and and that's um Anthropic. So, Anthropic has uh, you know, Claude and I think there are some It's sort of I think the emperor is naked here a little bit. Um, so, uh, Anthropic is facing these headwinds. Number one, yes, corporations are spending on AI, but they're they're they're cost-conscious consumers. So, they're trying to cut their costs. Number one. Number two, is there's a lot of competition in the model space. Number three, you now have people in the industry and in the government saying they're not to be trusted

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[5:04] My belief, and I can bore your audience if you want with all arithmetic, is that the US dollar will duplicate its performance in the decade of the 1970s, which is to say it will lose 75% of its remaining purchasing power the next 10 years.

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[5:19] And gold, I think, will maintain its purchasing power. Gold will today, as it has always done, buy you a very fine men's suit. Maybe not at a hotel this expensive, but at a reasonable place. It'll buy you a very fine men's suit, an ounce of gold. And 10 years from now, it'll buy you a very fine men's suit. That same men's suit in US dollars will probably be a $15,000 suit in 10 years.

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[6:00] The market share of gold and precious metals related securities in the United States relative to other savings and investment assets is 1/ half of 1%. Figuratively, this is a pimple on an elephant's behind. The four decade mean market share is 2%. If gold reverts to mean, gold and precious metals, related securities reverts to mean, demand increases four-fold in the largest savings and investment uh asset uh country in the world. And that's what I think is going to happen.

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[28:13] The shortage that we have coming up is structural. The shortage that we have coming up will be a consequence of by then $2.5 trillion dollars of underinvestment. And you can't solve that with an armistice. You have to solve it with uh a $2.5 trillion capital input. And you can't input that in a month or two months or three months... The price response that you saw in calendar 2026 from $55 to 115 was artificial and temporary. The structural imbalance that you're going to see coming forward is structural.

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[21:44] We haven't actually fostered off into the productivity side of that yet. That's probably another year out. So I'll probably update this in the next year or so

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[6:02] Stocks may retreat another 10 15% but they're already shape cheap trading under three times cash flow and we would recommend investors take advantage of the next uh the the correction that we see uh unfolding in the next week or two.

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[7:25] So right now we're in the view that we're going to be $80 average in Q4.

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[8:04] I think in 2027 we're using an average price of $90 uh per barrel for the year. It'll be you know probably have a 20 bucks swing. So 110 at the high and 70 at the low.

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[20:57] I believe that this is you know this back and forth tit for tat between United States and Iran um is just something to drag out for a number for a number of weeks maybe at the month a month or two and then I think they'll get back to the bargaining table

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[21:58] could you argue that there's going to be 10 million barrels that don't come out from the straight? I think by the end of the year that's maybe going to be three or four million and I think the world can adjust to a 3 or 4 million um you know less production.

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[32:44] you've still got, you know, forecasters saying demand will grow by a million barrels in 2026 and 1.2 2 1.3 but historically we've grown by between 1 and 1.3 million barrels per day when you do not have an economic slowdown... a million barrels of growth this year is not is not unreasonable.

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[6:45] I think we may have bottomed. How's that for being certain? I think we may have bottomed in late June on the gold price and kind of recovering right now. But bottoming is a process and and that doesn't mean we're not going to necessarily go lower than we we got uh when we dip right below 4,000. But I think we might have gotten beyond that and we have from a seasonality standpoint a few more weeks of uh a weakness in the market, bottoming in the market before we go into the another uptrend in the fall.

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[9:27] I think the majors right now are they offer as much upside potential as a junior mining play even an exploration company and and with much less risk because they are making so much money that has yet to be recognized by the broader market because they've got stars in their eyes with AI and everything else and have been distracted from uh the companies that are actually out there making money.

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[10:06] Yeah, they will lever it uh eventually. Um and they will work their way down the food chain. We have to acknowledge the fact that most of these companies have gone up three or fourfold from where they were 18 months ago. Uh so we've already had a fairly nice move. not nearly uh much in comparison to where we're going.

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[22:43] Silver is a, you know, like I'm excited about all the bullish cases for uh just about every metal out there right now, but silver is special. Uh it is leverage. I've always said it's going to leverage gold. Why? You don't have to get too deep in the weeds because it always has. So it always leverages gold. is going to do it again.

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[23:08] the difference now is that within the next few years if not already uh industrial demand is going to absorb every bit of newly mined supply. Above ground supplies have been taken off have been eliminated by many years of annual supply deficits. So if you have monetary demand driving that at the margin of demand for a metal where the supplies are not there and you have industry is bidding against investors and industry absolutely needs the metal at virtually any price. That's that's that's a good dynamic to be in as a silver investor.

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[19:15] copper is the most certain of the bull cases out there. It is uh the most if anything could be assured I think that is because we're we're seeing a demand curve for copper like perhaps nothing we've ever seen in any other commodity in modern history and it's running smack dab against uh very severe supply constraints.

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[25:46] No, I think there's a there's a bull case for many years. I think the the fact that western investors are are involved in the market uh brings that volatility where we're going to have periods that are going to test excuse me test your convictions.

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[3:12] central bank buying is still there. It's still strong. I think it's actually going to be stronger this year than it was last year. And uh and it's supporting the market.

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[8:33] I'm still a little bit bearish on price. We're we're getting near the bottom on silver and we have a maybe another 10% to go on gold somewhere thereabouts. That may or may not happen.

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[8:35] We're we're getting near the bottom on silver and we have a maybe another 10% to go on gold somewhere thereabouts. That may or may not happen. Nothing is guaranteed. Uh we can have world events happen you know tomorrow, next week, next month that that throw all the charts off and the and metals will go upward because of uh uh global events of some magnitude. But if everything stays relatively calm, um, status quo as it is now, uh, you you could be looking at a zone of silver, uh, in the, uh, 50 to 54 range, uh, which will be a great buying opportunity.

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[13:16] if you bought, you know, five grand and in FOMO, uh, January at $171, um, peak an ounce for a maple. Well, now you can buy them for roughly 92 bucks or whatever they are and uh, start accumulating like crazy because it's going to go back to 171 and beyond.

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[27:41] The hyperinflation will eventually arrive because look at what the debt is doing in every country. It's going through the roof and that's printing money and it's going to come back to roost in Main Street with groceries, you know, all taking a hike in the near future and it will continue to accelerate till it's people are really going to notice um in uh in the coming year.

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[31:46] I do expect to see some real market problems in September and we'll have to have another conversation in August, I guess, to get another update on what's going on next.

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[4:37] Sure. Uh I think that there are so many different factors. So we could list them off over a long haul but there are a lot of different factors that that just don't support any softening of the rate position. I mean there just there's nothing you could point at that say yes this will definitely move rates down.

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[27:20] There is no question that pressure on home prices will continue throughout Ontario and British Columbia through the whole of this year and into next year and that the best outcome in 27 would be it just stops falling and stays flat. Uh the idea of an immediate rebound is not sensible to me. I I I just don't see it.

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[28:09] this is the the idea that there's going to be a rebound in home prices in Ontario in 2026, I think, is a a it's a significant error.

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[26:23] I I I told everybody that there'd be more units sold this year than last year. I told everybody that in January or February uh because we're going to go from 32-year lows, 32year lows in sales in 2025 to 15 or 12 year lows in sales in 2026. But for the real estate industry to suggest that that's some kind of buoyancy or some kind of uh happy days are here again is absolutely crazy.

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[29:04] We will see continued foreclosures and power sales in residential real estate in Ontario and British Columbia. They will continue. They will grow throughout this year.

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[34:34] No chance of a change. No, no chance of a change for the rest of this year unless inflation really really takes off in Canada. like there there is no there's no chance

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[19:43] There is no question that even if they buy all 2200 of these units in the next 3 weeks that there will be no new condo projects started in Vancouver this year or next year or likely the year after.

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[7:46] I'm not expecting anything at all at the July meeting.

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[10:18] 76% just north of 76% they don't see a cut in 2026 and just north of 17% think that we'll have exactly one cut. Do you think we'll see a cut at all this year or is that... Well, I don't think the next move is going to be a hike.

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[0:00] I I don't like to get into the numbers game, but you know, I I could see 10,000 gold and $300 silver. I don't think that's an unrealistic. By the way, and people had put out these numbers, OH MY GOD, he's crazy. Every super cycle we've been through in the one in the 70s and one in the 2000s, the price go of these commodities go up by 7x on average

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[0:00] I I don't like to get into the numbers game, but you know, I I could see 10,000 gold and $300 silver. I don't think that's an unrealistic. By the way, and people had put out these numbers, OH MY GOD, he's crazy. Every super cycle we've been through in the one in the 70s and one in the 2000s, the price go of these commodities go up by 7x on average

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[9:28] physical supply will ultimately win relative to physical demand in terms of bringing those values up.

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[1:20] There's a lot of value in pure play silver miners. Um, when I say pure play, I mean silver miners that are very close to the silver the itself that don't have to process other types of metals in their deposits. So things like ya gold and silver which is pure play um and even first majestic in Mexico that's been quite depressed.

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[2:29] Future utilities are buying it at 95 100. So therefore it's going to go up to that level.

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[2:35] The miners who mine uranium in the western hemisphere have underperformed the price. So it's one of the few areas where the miners have actually significantly underperformed a very stable to increasingly higher price. That's an opportunity. [...] things like UEC have such good upside potential.

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[2:09] there are tremendous opportunities in copper and in junior copper developers around the world because we are heading into a massive scarcity and supply of copper for not just future demand but current demand.

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[17:04] we targeted oil to go back to the 70 or 80s level a couple months ago, and that's kind of what we're seeing. Can it get to 81 82 if there's continued aggression? Sure. But we're basically in that in that sort of ban.

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[18:17] That's why we're not going to see oil prices come back down to the 60s or even below that that we saw pre the period of this war. That's why I think we stay in that 7080s range.

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[17:20] the inflation numbers that just came out that the Fed was looking at, the headlines were scared about are going to creep down because they're not pricing in what was $110 to $138 oil for that aberration in that quarter. And then going down to 95 110. They're going to start to price in that 70 80 level, that's going to bring numbers down.

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[13:43] there's basically a 5:1 appreciation of gold relative to purchasing power, relative to inflation versus cash. And it's five times to two times versus if you invested in treasury bonds [...] it does continue to have that value [...] it definitely not just keeps up with debasement, it actually outpaces debasement.

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[14:13] if you go down the curve in terms of supply and you get to the major minor and then you get to the developing minors that multiple becomes 15 times for major minors and it becomes 100 times for the appropriate right jurisdiction well-managed junior miners.

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[37:47] everything we're talking about, whether it's east, whether it's west, those are a decade away, right? Or close to I think decade's the right way to think about that. Uh a decade away.

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[4:35] My base case right now is actually a period of correction, consolidation, and the next big move will be higher. That is my expectation. Not my prediction. I don't know the future, but that's what I think is the most likely thing. But if that's true, correction and consolidation, you know, last time in 2020 when we first hit 2000, it lasted 3 years.

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[13:06] I do have a very bullish thesis on oil sort of medium to long term, but I think in the near term, the odds favor a shopping opportunity.

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[17:01] Right now, Spot has been below uh the long-term contract price pretty much all year... That never lasts. The spot will, you know, it's more volatile. It'll go, it'll shoot higher and lower, but it always comes back to the long-term price over in time. And right now it's been below long-term contract for months. So I think there's potential for a snap move up in spot which does tend to move the stocks.

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[1:03] I actually think we might be in a little early this year. Um, I I tell my readers if nobody really calls a bottom in the market. If you do, you're lucky. You're not good. That That's the bottom line.

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[1:44] So far, it looks like that's holding. You know, we put a little breathing room between uh 4,000 and us. That seems to be a pretty good floor for the price right now.

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[2:12] it looks to me like it's going to be a typical market response where we're going to get into a stronger fall.

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[14:57] when they get back to work in Labor Day, after Labor Day here in the US or after the end end of the summer, they're going to look back and they're likely going to see the gold price up 5 or 10%, these mining stocks up 20 or 30%. And they've just missed those gains through sheer inattention.

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[14:57] when they get back to work in Labor Day, after Labor Day here in the US or after the end end of the summer, they're going to look back and they're likely going to see the gold price up 5 or 10%, these mining stocks up 20 or 30%. And they've just missed those gains through sheer inattention.

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[10:43] you see gold heading as high as $6 to $8,000 by the end of this cycle.

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[11:35] We think that the number is a good number in terms of where gold should be based on our valuation models and we're looking at somewhere in the range of you know plus or minus 5% because of where we are going to tread with this uncertainty around rates for the next 6 to 12 months.

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[16:35] dependencies just on fiat currencies are going to decline over the next 5 years. And the majority, near 90% of them are going to continue to hold or increase their gold holdings over time.

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[16:35] dependencies just on fiat currencies are going to decline over the next 5 years.

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[7:33] We're big believers in the junior space. We think we're hitting a secular bull market and we wanted to figure out what's the way that we can capture the most money for our shareholders and this is what we came up with.

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[23:13] And then the final question I had is if TSX Venture Index simply goes back to where it was in 2011 at 2500. And it was at 3500 in 2007. But if it simply goes back to 2011, what increase should I expect in my junior gold stocks? Because remember the TSX Venture Index is 60% juniors, but it's also got 40% other stuff that tend to be bigger companies or non-mining companies. And so I was looking what kind of beta does Claude think I should apply to the move? And so it estimates anywhere from 1 and 1/2 X on a conservative basis to 2 and 1/2 X in a bull case. And therefore it gave a multiplier from anywhere from 3.6X to 5 and 1/2X if the TSX Venture simply goes back to where it was in 2011. So I don't think it's too far out to assume that it's possible that you could get a 5X return if we get a bull market, which it does seem starting to materialize.

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[22:41] And so then I said, 'Run another model and assume that half of the warrants we have be just remain out of the money, that they'd never hit anything, those companies somehow, uh you know, never have their time in the sun during a bull market, and then show me what the numbers would be.' And so you can see we've highlighted on the left side here, but in the 5X case it's a billion and 10X case, it's it's 2 and 1/2 billion.

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[27:57] We're going to have to decide on individual sets of warrants if we're going to exercise and sell immediately or for other positions if we're going to exercise and hold. We have the benefit with how much equity we have in our portfolio that the capital is already there to exercise and hold a majority of those positions.

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[31:57] We have good reason to think that this this one is not going to fizzle.

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[32:42] We don't expect to have a tax bill this year. Maybe not one next year.

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[3:03] I don't want to sugarcoat the fact that I think there's still a lot of negativity ahead on average for the national housing market.

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[10:02] What I think we're going to see even more of in the future is people who bought with these high prices and high payments are going to end up selling in distress.

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[15:29] What I think we're going to see is just more of that pressure build over the next year, especially as more and more of the existing owner population converts to the higher mortgage rates.

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[20:02] I think we could just continue to see this low demand that we've now seen for four years. I think we could see it for another four years. Now, it'll improve a little bit over those four years, but I don't think we're anywhere close to buyers jumping back in.

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[12:39] This is the first time that we're actually really starting to see price points that are 2017, 2018, 2019 price points for sale on the market. And uh this is actually something I did myself two or three months ago as well.

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[38:33] If you see a big downward forecast like in Colorado, 6% in a year at a state level is a huge downward forecast. Washington were minus 6% as well.

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[4:31] we're not going to see sub $50 silver I don't think in our lifetime you know that's maybe sounds like a bold prediction And you know maybe intraday it might break 50. I doubt it. But uh you know we've been basing out here in the mid-50s for the last uh you know couple months now.

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[4:56] the world needs to wake up to the fact that silver's $60 and it's never going backwards.

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[16:13] Don't forget it'll be there again. We're going there.

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[1:05] gold actually sounds like an outstanding investment for the next 6 to 12 months in my view.

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[1:45] producers great place all the the big ones are you know like theos of the world newmonts of the world those are all solid um operators that have multiple assets I don't think you're going to miss much there

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[2:01] silver is in that range a lot of people watching the 50 level I learned the hard way that you don't put a single price and say that's where I buy it because you can miss both ways It can frustrate you if you go to 45. It can frustrate you if it bottoms at 60 and and you missed it. Um, so I would be careful there, but I think we're in a accumulation phase of all these assets.

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[3:15] if you look into even um agricultural commodities today, they're acting like oil was 8 n months ago. Oil was in a consolidation period. Basically charts went sideways for two to three years. If you look at most agricultural commodities as a basket, they've also been behaving that way. I would suspect that we're getting close to a breakout there as well.

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[15:39] Copper that hasn't done that yet. You know copper is kind of sort of like in that where silver was at 40. And I expect copper to go crazy here. So, it's almost like the best analogy I keep using is it's almost like a a beach ball being held up against inside of the water and you know eventually right now we're seeing that some I don't know a little kid just forcing it down but eventually that thing just keeps going

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[8:34] natural gas is another one that very few people talk about and it's right now with the situation in in the Middle East and so forth has been taken away. But if you look at the structural demand coming from data centers and all what are we going to use for source of energy? It's natural gas. There's nothing around it. Like you can't get nuclear quickly. You won't probably get um uh wind, solar. I mean all these things the the only solution in the near term is going to be natural gas.

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[8:15] I would rather be long energy than be short the equity market. I think it's an easier call.

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[2:58] I think we've seen the lows quite honestly we but we need to bounce around you know the market the investors institutional investors need to get used to this kind of new pricing regime that we're in and it may take 6 months it may take 12 months uh you know who knows

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[16:58] I don't know how long it's going going to take to get back to triple digits, but I'm confident it will.

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[31:18] maybe we'll hit 120 gain three times before it breaks through to go to some other level

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[24:15] I think we're two years into a 10-year bull market. I I look at this bull market similar to what I said earlier about the 2002 to 2012 rally. Um and we're in one of those corrections

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[3:37] No, I think it's a breather in the bull market and one of the things that I think is different this time than let's say in the 2011 runup when we had gold moving that was largely driven by speculation... So yes we see these daily volatilities due to the news cycle but long term I think we continue to see that evolution of gold trending higher.

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[15:08] I think again long-term silver is really um looks good when we get around to AI... going forward, we're going to continue to have that industrial use for silver... when I look and say, you know, it's it's it's come from, you know, in the last, you know, couple of decades, it's come from five or $6 to 60. Uh the silver investors longterm have been rewarded.

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[12:47] Yes, I believe so. Well, we've seen you know Equinox and Orla do their moves. So, it's about being product up. As you get these companies which have two or three minds now becoming eight and 10 mines, then we're going to continue to see portfolios move up... I think we're in a space with this gold price... But with the fact that most mining companies are operating with all sustaining costs between that a,000 and 2,000 range at these current gold prices and even what may be projected, there's still good margin in the industry.

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[23:26] we'll have that out in the uh the fourth quarter of this year. that will inform the feasibility study and with that we'll start the permitting process... and our disclosures were targeting uh late 2029 for um production that's only 3 years away which in this business is not is not that far away

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[23:54] when we get under 60 55 to 60 I I would think that would be pretty much a low and I would be looking to be pretty aggressive

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[32:50] if you've got a 5 to 10 year time horizon, you've studied the gold market and you think everything I think and know means that gold will be higher and the commodities generally will be higher in 5 years.

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[8:49] I think we're in the sixth inning. I believe the gold bull market, at least for me, the gold bull market began in the year 2000. I think we've got 10 years left. So, we're in the sixth inning. Understand that in most financial markets, the best part of the move, the hyperbolic move, comes towards the end.

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[9:23] I believe specifically, and I said this the last time you and I interviewed, that the dollar will likely lose 75% of its purchasing power over 10 years, which suggests that the gold price in nominal terms, US dollar quoted terms, could be a triple over 10 years.

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[9:23] that the dollar will likely lose 75% of its purchasing power over 10 years, which suggests that the gold price in nominal terms, US dollar quoted terms, could be a triple over 10 years. It's not a bad move.

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[17:36] my suspicion, since you asked me, is that US interest rates will stay nominally strong and gold will be nominally weak, perhaps for the balance of 2026, but that doesn't matter. Structurally, the dollar's toast.

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[20:49] Copper will be higher in nominal prices and higher in real prices 5 years from now, absent a depression, guaranteed.

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[9:55] right now, we're using more copper than we produce. And you can only use more copper than you produce when you have surplus inventories. We're about 3 years away from being out of inventories.

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[16:58] The shortage that's coming to us in 3 years is structural and you won't be able to end it with an armistice.

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[21:02] Demand for uranium over the next 10 years is structurally higher. No hate, Easy money's been made. The certain money is ahead of us.

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[23:33] The government will tell you that the dollar is losing its purchasing power to the extent of 2 and 1/2% a year. The real number for your family is eight.

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[6:08] There's a parabolic up chart. You need to sell parabolic up charts because they resolve to the downside.

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[28:04] my call on that front is that that war will come back after the midterms. It's a finely balanced thing. I can change that view if the evidence changes for the moment. I think there's at least a 50 versus other lower percentage outcomes. Therefore, my base >> Iran after the midterms. >> Iran after the midterms. Yeah, absolutely. I don't believe that's in any way done at all. This isn't sorted.

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[39:04] He dismisses markets pricing 45% chance of normalization before October 1 as too optimistic, noting ships run dark, ship-to-ship transfers hide traffic, and geopolitics will escalate after midterms—Hormuz will never fully normalize as countries build alternatives.

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[19:24] I I think uh, 200 plus was was was rich. Uh, maybe that's been reflected now in the in the stock price pulling back. Uh even buying it though at 150, you know, you're still there's a it's not the ultra bullish end of the right tail of the curve, but you're you're not in the middle. You're not in the fat part of the curve. I'd say you're still, you know, uh in the more optimistic uh grouping. I think I think at 100 bucks, you'd be more in that fat part of the bell curve.

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[8:48] we might stay here for a little bit, but I do believe we're going to get to 6,000 by the end of the year.

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[17:01] Our prediction in the beginning of the year was that silver will get to 120 from where it ended last year. Of course, it got to 121 in January. We're all very happy about that. Um and it has since traded off significantly. We still believe it will get to 120 by the turn of the year.

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[2:52] oil prices went up to 138, you know, in the beginning of the war period, now they're they're down in the mid70s and we had said they'd be in 70 80 bically for the rest of the year and and we're basically in the 70s.

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[6:14] inflation numbers that were just posted in the last one or two prints are going to come down.

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[5:17] I think I I maybe I'm being a contrarian on this, but I don't see rate hikes and I I think you're on the same page with me there... even if that were to happen, which I do not believe

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[11:23] we think it would be healthy if they took a break here, but we still like them as long-term.

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[19:52] I think a lot of the a lot of the move in gold, I think, had become overextended. I think the long-term positive outlook for gold is still there, I think. But the way to manage I think or the way we think about managing our exposure for clients is just making sure that you know we're not too far mispositioned at the wrong time because if you're full weight in gold into the high and you then have to ride it for you know a year or two years like we could be in a multi-year correction now for gold because we had a big run.

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[7:22] Inflation is not going away. But that it's not going to be in that sort of high 3 4% range when we see the next prints.

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[11:05] I think we could even potentially see an easing of rates. I don't think that's going to happen in the next meeting or the next two meetings.

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[14:11] I don't see them going to a QT I don't see them stopping um what what is already in motion which is effectively QE um but not called QE

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[21:56] I can see a situation where four or five years from now they own, you know, basically just a little float of treasuries to maneuver in international markets and the rest is all other currencies, their currency or gold. And I think that's where we're going with some of these banks.

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[2:14] you look at price, you look at value, you look at sentiment, all of those things are just unbelievably lopsided right now, which as a contrarian uh it's difficult to imagine a better setup.

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[3:39] if you looked at gold backing just for the dollar, just for the dollar, we're not talking about the growth in global money supply, but just the growth in the money supply of the dollar for it to for us to have 100% backing, you would be looking at a $21,000 gold price. But you know for 25% back in you're looking at you know 56 5700. So where we are now we are very very under value.

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[5:36] doesn't mean silver won't be higher a year from now, but just a short-term top.

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[1:00] the valuations of the equities are at at very low levels much much closer to the low all-time lows and even to the averages... I would 100% absolutely look for opportunities right now if you're new or underinvested in the is I would absolutely invest now

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[11:30] stocks like Franco and Wheat and and Aigo um selling at on a historical basis uh very very low multiples right now... compared with Franco's historical price to an EV, it is now well under its average. well under its average in the lowest uh lowest 30 percentile on a price of cash flow it's in the lowest 20 percentile so yeah the valuations are very very good I would absolutely start buying now

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[3:41] Obviously, we still had a 5,500 in January. Our prediction at Prince sites was for 6,000 by the end of the year. Before that happened, we we still stand by that.

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[4:56] we expect to be able to selfund our growth. There's no need for external capital, right? And it is a function of the balance sheet strength. We ended the second quarter with $425 million cash on hand, significant cash generation from Siggoia. Mato is expected to become a significant generator of cash flow once we have delivered the expansion in Q4.

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[7:37] that project is on track for first gold pour in Q4 and then a stage progressive ramp up throughout 2027. We expect to be at 4,000 tons per day um at the CIP plant by the first half of next year and then exiting 2027 at 5,000 tons per day.

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[7:55] 2028 would be the first year when the CIP plant runs consistently at 5,000 tons per day which in turn should enable Mamato to produce 500,000 ounces sorry uh 200,000 ounces and then Siggoia and Mamato would be at 500,000 ounces combined

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[9:36] tour Peru is the next one we expect to build the FID expected in Q1 of next year which then obviously follows on the heel of Mamato which we expect to deliver in Q4 of this year

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[13:46] Toro Peru will be construction ready by the end of this year. And from a permitting point of view, we already have the environmental license. The only thing that's required is an amendment of the mining license... we expect to have that project fully permitted by the end of the year and that would then put us in a position to make a construction decision in Q1.

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[16:16] we are fundamentally positive on the outlook for gold given you know the debasement trade like the fiscal uh outlook across the western world is is is not not particularly rosy right and um you also still have an elevated level of geopolitical tensions they don't seem to be abating anytime soon so you know I think all of that is positive for gold as a you know diversifier risk in portfolios as a safe haven asset

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[19:26] mining is still inexpensive trades at a discount to its peers fortunately we have a lot of catalysts ahead of us uh associ with each and every one of our assets that should help us close that gap, right? Uh so we have an exciting 12 months ahead of us.

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[10:02] price is down, valuation's down, sentiment weak. I mean, that is just the perfect setup for a strong move.

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[4:45] the in the CPI number could be weak uh for July and August

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[4:51] I think a lot of the pressure on the Fed to raise rates will perhaps be removed.

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[27:47] The AI stocks I think are just grossly overvalued. based on based on future earnings but may or may not come... we're going to get that scale back and that's going to affect the prices of um you know the companies that that that are you know building the data centers where it's a major part of their business. So I we've already started to see you look at Nvidia or um Microsoft or um Amazon all these companies their stock prices have come down 15 to 20% over the last month... I think we're going to continue to see that.

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[23:27] countries that found themselves suddenly squeezed for oil, not that the price went up, but that they couldn't get it. Um, mostly in Asia, those countries are going to be more willing. They're going to they're going to see building an oil reserve as a as a priority and an urgency... I think all of those countries are going to build up reserves of oil and that of course means more more demand and higher prices.

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[18:14] I would say I'm more bullish on an oil rebound. It may go lower before it goes up, but if we're talking second half of 2026, I think we see oil uh come higher, significantly higher from where we are now, and certainly from where I think we might go lower.

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[4:53] I have a feeling that even if oil itself carves out a bottom here, that won't stop the stocks from going lower on the narrative. And the narrative right now is there's people talking about an oil glut... So, um I think there's potential for oil to go lower and even if it doesn't, I think there's potential for the stocks to keep going lower as we speak.

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[20:20] The spot price kind of it's like a rubber band that shoots above and below the long-term contract price, but it never goes too far for too long and then it snaps back and it has been consistently below the long-term contract price for months. So I think spot has a has another snapback coming which would be upward and that will be good for the stock.

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[17:02] I think I think we have uh an a problem with underlying inflation. I think underlying inflation is around 3%. I think if anything it's accelerating rather than uh rather than decelerating. Um I think the risk uh of uh an acceleration of underlying inflation is greater than the risk of a deceleration in underlying inflation.

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[26:44] I don't think the Fed is going to hike in 2026. Um, I am I am uh, you know, out of step with uh, with the bond market in that in that view.

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[27:31] My base case is the economy grows above potential in 26. and for the remainder of 2026.

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[5:48] I think there's less pressure on the US Fed to lower interest rates. I think ultimately they will, but I don't think they'll have to in calendar 2026.

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[5:48] I think there's less pressure on the US Fed to lower interest rates. I think ultimately they will, but I don't think they'll have to in calendar two 2026. That means relatively strong US dollar.

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[6:25] I think the economy in the second half of 2026 is going to surprise people for it with its weakness.

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[6:37] I expect as an example the copper quote to be flattened down.

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[17:04] I believe make no mistake that over 10 years the gold price the nominal gold price is going to be markedly higher than it is today.

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[17:22] I think right now that the oil quote and the oil stocks are in freefall and the oil market is a better market than any other natural resource stock. So if I looked at what I'm likely to allocate to the most over the next six months, it's likely to be the oil and gas business.

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[22:06] I believe that both the royalty and the streaming companies have the best 10 years that they've ever had in front of them in terms of allocation.

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[0:00] you're in the fourth turning and it it's probably going to get worse before it gets better. And if it gets worse, then that likely means the dollar goes up and starts destroying and and being more of a problem uh for all these other currencies.

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[34:07] I think the trends are going in the wrong way. Um, and part of the reason is because I think we've had this shiny object called the Middle East for quite some time.

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[34:51] what that means is the market has gone from expecting a Fed rate cut to likely expecting a Fed rate hike in the next who knows in the next couple quarters or something like that.

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[26:29] it's because we have to realize that although we import a lot of stuff into to the United States. We export a lot as well and we're exporting to those countries who are getting decimated by by the dollar going higher and higher and higher. So, at a certain point, the dollar is destroying our trading partners. The dollar is destroying our customers.

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[25:45] And like I said, we're at 162 right now. And that works until you run out of FX reserves. Now you got a problem. Now you got a big problem. You can sell treasuries. You can sell gold. But at a certain point, you might have to take the only asset that's on your balance sheet if you're Japan, and that would be yen. to sell to get those dollars that you have to have and in that case the yen just you go into a death spiral

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[3:42] we think the odds are more likely that the Fed is the next thing the Fed's going to do. We don't know when it's going to be, but we'll likely cut, not hike. And the market right now is expecting a hike.

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[9:17] there's a real probability that the time we finish up this year, we're going to be closer to 1.8 to 2% GDP growth versus 2.3 to 2.6, right?

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[23:17] Yeah that's going to unwind later this year. Is that your thesis? I I I think I think absolutely.

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[30:02] I think oil will start heading higher in about a week's time and I'll explain to you what I mean by that because in a week's time we will be after both July 4th as well as the funeral

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[33:50] Poly market right now is giving only a less than 20% chance that Iran is going to walk away from theou negotiation. I would give before the end of July. I would say the odds are at least double that, if not triple.

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[6:19] you're looking at 5 6 7 8 9% inflation for the next decade.

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[3:46] Let's just say they're on the same page. They're on the same page. And what is the page? The page is it's all you know the whole world revolves around the president now... you've got three spokes or three legs on that stool of needing loose money. Government runaway deficit, um industrial buildout and AI buildout. You you've got to have a printaththon.

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[21:12] it will reach a certain level of which I think is about three and a half thousand, but you know, it's not fate. Now's the time to think about DCAing again... The bottom of this, I believe, will be three and a half thousand, maybe a little lower, but who cares?

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[22:45] over the next 10 years, gold will go on a nice trend because the value of your dollar bills that you put in is going to go that way and the value of your gold in real terms will probably go sideways, but in numerical terms will be going that way.

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[27:01] platinum is ridiculously cheap in my book and padium so why not

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[10:22] So America won't will be relatively strong. Yeah. But the buying power will go down. But the buying power of everything else will go down more.

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[10:41] it looks like um you know, America's going to bomb Iran imminently. Absolutely. Could be this weekend, right? Because you've got all the military stuff going through the roof... we're on a knife edge with Iran. I think oil oil non Middle Eastern oil is kicked up... So that might come up in the next week or two. Could be on the weekend.

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[12:34] my prediction is you'll see stocks down the S&P up to 50% within 3 months and the Nasdaq up to 60% and it'll happen so fast, then you'll panic and sell and then it'll bounce against that to say you're wrong and then it'll crash 80 to 90% in the next 2 years if history has anything to say about this.

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[12:34] my prediction is you'll see stocks down the S&P up to 50% within 3 months and the Nasdaq up to 60% and it'll happen so fast, then you'll panic and sell and then it'll bounce against that to say you're wrong and then it'll crash 80 to 90% in the next 2 years if history has anything to say about this.

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[5:15] we should see the markets go down very strongly into October or late this year. And And that's what I'm looking for now.

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[33:06] we should see a sharp 40-50% crash in stocks by the end of this year. That would be the sign that this bubble's over

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[24:03] Bitcoin is going to crash. I've been predicting it's going to go down to at least 30,000 by the end of this year, maybe lower and then the next stop will probably be 250, then 500.

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[24:14] it's going to be closer to a million dollars 10 to 15 years from now and then it will be big enough to be bigger than gold

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[27:20] If I looked at this chart and had no idea what it was, I'd say this is five perfect waves up and now the next low would be around 800 to 1,100 for gold right back at that 2015-16 bottom on your chart. ... that says gold's going to be down 60-70%.

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[28:21] Gold is not going to be the safe haven. Uh, the Treasury bonds of the US is going to be the safe haven as they were in 2008.

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[28:56] bond yields, I'm telling you, I'm expecting a Treasury bond yield and we've already seen 0.4% so many years ago in the last downturn, 2008-2009. We're going to see Treasury bond yields go down to zero or lower.

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[29:27] when that gets washed out, we're going to see zero inflation for the rest of our lives in the developed world.

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[30:09] Housing's going to go down not as much as the stock market, but 50-60-70% and David, that is what's the worst thing for the economy.

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[30:38] real estate will never be the same when we come out of this downturn, okay? Because real estate lasts forever, unlike stocks and other investments, and and basically is the baby boom dies out, there's going to be not enough investment to keep real estate will actually have negative net demand trends because baby boomers will start selling faster than millennials are buying

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[2:42] we don't we're not at the point where again the stock market is topping right here and now. That's not what I see... I I I think it's going to happen. I mean, it's um there's no indication that the market has stopped at this point.

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[29:13] we can see the Russell 2000 the small cap index has actually not has been outperforming the S&P 500 over the last uh two months I think and it's starting to show that you can see some of these um these uh small cap stocks and whatever starting to perform better and that rotation will go on.

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[29:31] I think there's a good chance we've seen a stock market top in Microsoft for instance and u other stocks as well for in also like that. But you're going to see that they will bounce somewhat into that before they then will continue their bare market decline which I think they're in.

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[30:10] At some point people will realize that inflation is not here. There's no inflation... So there is actually a disinflationary impulse from this... there's no inflation coming. This is completely wrong. Completely wrong.

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[44:56] his boldest calls for a year from now — including a bursting AI bubble and Bitcoin below $20,000.

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[43:43] Dollar forecast: DXY to 93–94 short term, then a run toward 120+

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[44:56] his boldest calls for a year from now — including a bursting AI bubble and Bitcoin below $20,000.

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[0:00] Yeah, we still think the risk of a 1998 style correction markets is is still pretty high over the next one and two quarters.

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[5:37] we think there is still material risk of the Fed uh tightening monetary policy over the medium-term. Let's call it in the first in the next one to two quarters.

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[10:09] the net result of these five task forces are are are doubbish... if you don't mind I can kind of walk you through what we're thinking in terms of those task forces and why we think the Fed has to be you know more tight now more more hawkish now so that it can ultimately create the scope for that

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[23:24] you're talking about a a 10-year nominal Treasury yield that is a a fair value of about, you know, five and a quarter, somewhere about 5.9 somewhere between five and five and 3/4 to 5.9%... you're talking about a a bond market that could easily reprice to somewhere well north of 5%.

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[4:38] We're currently annualizing at 8% on headline CPI on a three-month annualized basis. That's going to come back down and and we're going to be off, you know, we're, you know, the markets have appropriately priced that that's going to come back down

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[11:25] you know the Federal Reserve will have a serious inflation problem in 2027 if they go from today to tomorrow which is where we think they're going tomorrow which is more easy

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[3:25] it is still pointing to a little bit of a precipitous fall here. This is This is a high momentum move, and based on this chart, it is showing that we could see gold slip 38 3600. It might happen very quick... This chart is pointing to like in the next week or two, we could see gold slip right to 3600.

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[10:23] it is pointing to about $40 per ounce. And And that's why I'm excited cuz I love silver in that way cuz it is extremely volatile... I love it if we can get silver down to these levels. It'll be like back the truck up because it'll be a very short-lived window. It may only tag 40 for minutes or maybe even hours and rebound, right? That's what this chart is kind of pointing to. It's going to be a a couple big red bars, and then it's probably going to bounce right back up into the 60 range.

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[12:22] Based on that, we should see it come to the 618, and if it finds support and bounces, we should see it drop to the 100% measured move, which if we look at that, is about $45,000 for Bitcoin... it actually looks like a pretty straightforward downward trend. It's a bear market. It's bouncing on Fibonacci levels. It's starting to give way today... the odds are it's going lower at this point.

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[14:57] Yeah, I think it does end up positive. It doesn't mean that we can't have a tough couple of months over the summer as it we we're going to have earning season soon. And uh like I said, there's a lot of uh you know, positioning problems within semiconductors as you know, where like everybody's very overweight this space. So, you could see some correction in the the you know, month, a few weeks to a month. But, I think at the over the course of the rest of the year, I think it'll do well because I think this capex spend trend and boom is going to continue into 2027.

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[15:18] So, you could see some correction in the the you know, month, a few weeks to a month.

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[7:34] I don't think the capex to be honest with you is going to stop a slow down anytime soon uh year or next year.

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[15:28] I think this capex spend trend and boom is going to continue into 2027. And when these hyperscalers are announcing earnings, you know, later in July, I think they're all going to really reiterate reiterate their their capex intentions for 2027.

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[35:08] They are forecasting that bond yields have peaked with the inflation number that peak that that came out really hot last month. So, there's they expect that inflation's going to cool off as we go through the rest of year. That's going to bring down bond yields, which is going to be a positive for the underlying economy

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[35:08] They are forecasting that bond yields have peaked with the inflation number that peak that that came out really hot last month. So, there's they expect that inflation's going to cool off as we go through the rest of year.

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[35:40] we're we're very positive on yield sensitive, rate sensitive industries like housing and to some extent financials. And bond yields coming down as inflation sort of cools off through the rest of year, I think it's going to be positive for the broader markets as a whole, not just tech.

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[26:17] I think we're about to see in the next 3 years with Apple, we're going to get really surprised by the pace of innovation by this company, not just in iPhones, but also with AI-related software features that are going to be part of what's going to drive a massive upgrade cycle in iPhones and other devices. And then beyond that, I think Apple is going to be a serious player in home robotics.

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[36:45] the way I see these models progressing over the next years that ultimately they're going to get commoditized because you know, they all the new models as they come out they kind of leapfrog each other.

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[27:15] I think we're headed back to uh an ongoing of the trend that took gold from 1300 to 5,500. There's nothing that made that movement. Listen, maybe it got a little bit ahead of itself on the way up, but there's nothing to me that says this is a long-term retracement here.

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[26:25] I think we're continuing to see uh pressure on uh labor costs in the mining industry, but fundamentally, I think we're still sitting in a place where uh gold mining companies are going to be generating record levels of free cash flow this year. And you know I expect next year and next year I think you know this is a very healthy environment um on for margins in the gold mining business

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[4:44] targeting that being done kind of by the end of the summer, but that's, you know, at the end of the summer, we'd like to be in a position with uh really all of the communities with these long-term uh project agreements in place and the environmental assessment approvals that then really allow us to move on with confidence into finalizing feasibility study, detailed engineering, permitting, and moving towards that construction decision. which we'd be targeting kind of beginning of 2028.

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[12:01] the S&P 500 is up on average about 12% with a 75% hit rate. And the reason for that is the stock market doesn't care about geopolitics. The stock market doesn't care about politics. The stock market cares about earnings and stock prices follow earnings over time.

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[3:16] the hyperscalers and the mag seven guys really struggle this year down into today 174 basis points so red and that's 12% behind the S&P those stocks have probably bombed out sold pulled out, they probably should rally

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[4:37] I think Q2 is going to be going to be pretty good, David. you know Q1 was plus 25% yearonear you know the consensus was plus 12 or 13 so the actual report was 100% better than street you know consensus it was above what we had expected to the estimate for Q2 is north of 20 we're expecting something north of 15 yearon year

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[19:42] our forecast for this year for core PCE is three spot three. Worst just guided us to that exact number two weeks ago.

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[20:16] So right now as we're sitting here two-year yields are about 50 basis points above the effective federal funds rate that suggests the Fed is likely to hike rates right fed fund futures market is pricing a cut sorry a hike in December... Our guess is, this is just our best guess is uh they do nothing here, at least in the near term.

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[24:34] We don't need the Fed to cut rates here, right? Real GDP is probably going to grow two and a half. Economy is strong, consumer resilient, right?

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[29:51] We're up 10% in the first 6 months. Our target range is 7,400 7,800. We're in the middle of that now. That's why I think you don't chase it here and and you buy pullbacks. We'll get some, David, right? It's a midterm year. We'll get some V this summer.

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[23:58] My guess is we have an inline to slightly higher number. And what I'm really interested in, if that's the case, is back to what we just talked about. I want to see what two-year and 10-year yields do coming out of that number tomorrow.

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[6:58] I think it's probably got a couple more years to go. You're right in that, you know, big tech capex spend has driven a lot of of GDP, right? And but but it's been real.

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[29:54] my sense is that we are just going to now from $70 a barrel, maybe we go to 67 or whatever, 65, but I think that from there, we're going to just edge higher. Um, and that's going to continue to be sort of the uh the trend for the next several years.

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[33:50] I I'm still very bullish energy and I think this is a tremendous buying opportunity right here. Um, so I'm probably going to add to my exposure.

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[20:49] we're going to go from an environment where companies were buying back a trillion plus dollars a year in shares um to now being net issuers and uh net borrowers. So there's a tremendous demand for you know there'll be first a supply of equities rather than you know an expanding supply of equities rather than a shrinking supply of equities which has had the double whammy effect of both boosting um the prices but also the earnings per share metric

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[1:20] I remain very very bullish on the precious metals and that's sort of uh where I've been bullish since uh 2018... I'm quite constructive on gold for the next 5 to 10 years and by default silver

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[13:36] The mainstream public are much more likely to buy mining shares and junior mining shares than the central bank of China will. So that'll be the next wave also in terms of the equity markets catching up to the gold prices.

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[16:00] yes I mean this this pullback has created lots of opportunity um it's created opportunity in the junior mining space where I allocate most of my capital but also for investors want to be a little uh less risky let's say that producing gold producers have also had significant pullbacks many of them are pulled back 30 40% off their highs hit in January February of 2026... yes, there's a big opportunity in the in the mid-tier space as well.

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[23:58] yes, you can make 100 200% on the producers or you can buy a company trading at $50 an ounce in the ground today, which I'm doing junior space. have that company double their resource over the next two years of drilling and eventually try to sell for two three $400 an ounce to acquirer which you know can afford to pay that at some point in the future. That's how you make 10 20 30 even 50 times your money which is what I'm looking for in the junior space.

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[21:34] home building activity is going to remain structurally squeezed... it's going to be an area that I think remains uh difficult uh regardless of what happens with energy costs just because of the structural underinvestment that's been going on over the last 20 years and what's likely to persist.

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[13:15] I think 7800 is a very reasonable target I think 7853 off the top of my head uh uh stands out

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[0:21] I am becoming more cautious as to this top being more than just a pullback and a buying opportunity.

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[3:13] we're broadly following the 1920s. So, we're in a big bull market. We're definitely in a big bull market that culminates potentially in 2029

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[33:35] the cycles are fairly bearish for the moment... I think that we're probably going to be soft into round about September this year, September 2026.

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[35:12] it's very bearish the the smart money uh you know so the smart money in Bitcoin is the money that drives the futures and the ETFs and so on. Uh uh it's looking very bearish and I think we're still down for uh several more weeks into autumn into on Bitcoin.

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[2:51] we could have a more prolonged pullback because of what we did but in the longer run we will base out and reassert we expect continuation rather than this being a top. Same goes for silver and platinum.

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[2:51] we could have a more prolonged pullback because of what we did but in the longer run we will base out and reassert we expect continuation rather than this being a top. Same goes for silver and platinum.

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[2:51] we could have a more prolonged pullback because of what we did but in the longer run we will base out and reassert we expect continuation rather than this being a top. Same goes for silver and platinum.

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[7:50] I think between now and October, the sell in May, I think when we last time saw you, we t we said sell in May, go away... overall this is not uh a great time to be leverage long too much.

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[13:23] my overall opinion is that people should sit on their hands now and get ready to get a bit of a discount window that might be offered in the next month. It could be two months, could be three.

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[27:36] Not buying that at all. I can see the dollar softening.

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[28:20] this is why we are short oil because that has to come down if they to have any chance of not uh materializing some of those hikes that half the committee actually are forecasting. Um, and that's why I think we got this poor moves, you know, quick quick sort sorts and we're shorting the oil price. We've uh been short since the '9s and we've got into I think uh the low7s uh and we might have dipped into the 60s now.

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[36:14] I'm very weak on I'm very bearish on the Korean one and I expect the dollar to have a super spike against the Korean one.

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[39:40] you are seeing foreign professional institutional money leaving and you're seeing the taxi drivers at 55 years old getting properly geared up record margin levels getting long. So I think you know sentiment wise how you should be feeling about the shoe shine boy getting in.

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[17:11] The system that the China uh has put in place is a very slow but deadly erosion of dollar dominance and anyone who doesn't see that is not watching the game turn. It's slow motion uh but it's coming each time it's coming you know uh and it's bleeding away on you.

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[25:55] you've got yourself a head and shoulder with a downside break and a little broadening structure. And you've fallen out of that rising wedge again with a downside target. So I'm not seeing dollar strength being omniresent against all nations

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[6:39] I think oil will probably go back to the levels it was before. You know, people say, "Oh, oh, blah, blah." But it will. And so, I think then then you may want to buy more of it there, right?

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[9:45] I think that from a from a valuation perspective, Meta is is not expensive. I think that they've got great core brands, which they continue to be able to grow, and I think that you can see the fact that AI is working within those brands to generate more and more revenue for them on the advertising side. So, I I I like it because of all those things, but and I think like you know, you you're getting a relatively cheap stock.

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[12:47] I think that they will be one of the top top players. They've got a great cloud business that continues to grow. I mean, the cloud is the Azure's growing incredibly fast, 37% in the last quarter. Right? So, so I think that they are there's this kind of weird sense that they're not going to be anywhere and that that because they have a software business that's going to disappear.

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[17:41] It's an eye glass company that's going to grow at 3 to 5% a year. They're they are they dominate the business on especially on lenses.

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[4:32] oil prices have come down which should stabilize inflation more. Uh so you should probably see yields come down.

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[18:53] The dividend is is where it is. It's not maybe not going to go up, but it's not going to go down anymore. So, I think that's what people used to buy the stock for. So, they have more confidence in that. It's a five and a half% yield now, which is not terrible.

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[19:10] I think Telus is slightly more interesting simply because they're getting a new CEO coming in, I think, in on July the 1st. I think he they he may even cut the dividend and do all those sort of things because, you know, but I think that that would be it's a little bit more of an interesting story from that perspective.

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[22:25] Yeah, I think you could add here to the stock. I think you'd be fine adding to the stock. I think it'll do well over the next, you know, couple of years.

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[27:59] I think it it's worth buying here. Um, CE makes flight simulators. So for people, you know, civil and, you know, these plane companies... I think the defense side there's a real, like I said earlier on, like there's a real push around the world on the defense side and Canada's made a big effort to kind of increase defense

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[32:25] Oh, I wouldn't buy Campbell. I mean, I think like look at the numbers, right? They've just been there the numbers over the last uh little while have been horrific, right? And their snack business has been terrible.

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[35:50] I'm not sure why Nike is having all this trouble, right? So, they've got a great brand, a brand that's global in nature. you know, they've they've been able to manage their cost structure over a period of time. I just seems to me that there's something along the way that's been gone wrong for them and I I'm not sure what it is to how to explain it. Like it just seems like to me that every every time they do something, it's it's not the right thing.

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[37:59] I'm a big fan of platinum and palladium because I think they're really badly priced. I think they're very cheap and I think they're very um mispriced... if I pick up gold, I think I will be slapping myself saying, why why wasn't I buying platinum and palladium?

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[37:59] I'm a big fan of platinum and palladium because I think they're really badly priced. I think they're very cheap and I think they're very um mispriced... if I pick up gold, I think I will be slapping myself saying, why why wasn't I buying platinum and palladium?

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[2:13] I believe was on the cards for next year and is now at least postponed and maybe delayed forever.

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[9:06] I don't think a four or a five handle for the year, which is what I was saying previously, but I don't think a four or a five handle for the year is is likely at this point. I I I think probably you're looking at somewhere in the twos. Might you get a three handle? It's possible, but probably a two.

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[23:19] the the component of the producer price index, the PPI, the specific component that includes things like computer chips, memory, uh that has been going parabolic again for several months now. And so anyone who who has familiarity with the supply chains in the technology sector knew that these price hikes for things like laptops was coming and has arrived and is probably going to continue.

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[37:43] Again, we're going to see negative prints on headline CPI. It's I mean, it's just it's it's going to happen.

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[38:18] we're seeing home price declines expand beyond just the sunb belt.

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[38:09] this great rental reinflation that we were going to see in 2026 ain't happening. In fact, we're seeing the opposite of that.

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[5:52] I my my base line case is probably around $85$90 a barrel. That wouldn't surprise me whatsoever.

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[25:42] I I I would I would say that the chances of them lowering that, meaning gooseing in in their eyes is pretty low. Well, as you saw in the chart, I think it's non-existent.

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[0:00] look out. Gold goes to seven, you know, silver goes to 200, Bitcoin goes to 180. I mean, that's that's kind of what I see.

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[0:00] look out. Gold goes to seven, you know, silver goes to 200, Bitcoin goes to 180. I mean, that's that's kind of what I see.

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[0:00] look out. Gold goes to seven, you know, silver goes to 200, Bitcoin goes to 180. I mean, that's that's kind of what I see.

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[4:22] I feel like we're carving a bottom here in Bitcoin. A lot of the good uh analysts that I follow in the the economic or the models that I follow, there's one in particular that's very useful called the power law model, um suggests that, you know, we're close to the bottom, if not at the bottom. So, you know, whether we end here at 59 or 58, or we whip down to 54, I I don't think we're going to see a number that starts with 40.

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[31:31] I'm here to say I don't believe that's going to happen. In fact, I think it's probably the same equivalent chance that between now and the year end, they're going to actually cut rates.

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[3:48] our expectation is that the prices will start rising again in the final four months of this year into 2027 because the macroeconomic and political environment that drives investment demand hasn't gotten better. And our expectation is that while there is there has been some temporary improvement economically and politically, we think that by September things get worse again.

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[3:27] we're looking at lower prices for platinum and platium. We're more uh negative about the price prospects for platinum platium, although we do think that the prices at some point in the next few years could rise sharply.

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[34:48] we think that the price, you know, the price has broken below 4,100 a couple times over the last few weeks. It's down below it today. We think that there's a lot of technical selling pressure with a target around 3,800 and I wouldn't be surprised to see the price spike down to that level.

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[34:29] Gold and silver. Gold and silver I am most bullish on. Again, you know, we think that the prices consolidate over the next few two months uh but then rise in the the final part of this year.

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[3:22] right now, the chart of gold is looking like it wants to go to to about $3,600. That is going to be a sweet spot in terms of if it drops down to this level, to me, it's fair value or it's undervalued.

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[11:28] this is a long way down from where we are. This is $40 silver. But what it does, Jeremy, is it actually goes right back... All of those people who chase returns are chasing performance and trading on emotions. The market loves to try to put them under pressure and try and get them back out before they go.

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[10:54] The chart for the dollar is actually pointing to a rally up to about 109. That's a 9% move in in it, which is going to hurt precious metals.

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[26:15] look at the mega caps they the magnificent 7 they have been going down. Utilities have been going up. Big smart money is they they can't just liquidate because they have to stay actively investing... So they move to slower sectors... we are definitely seeing money looking for safety, smart money, and it's coming out of the Magnificent Seven, which to me is an early warning sign.

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[9:40] Yeah, know I could certainly see that happening certainly with oil prices having come down um in the last month or two already. That's going to be the big swing factor in the headline number which is what these numbers are. Um and and so I think there were some other factors that are probably keeping the CPI up a little bit lately. So I think yeah, we could see a little bit of slowing from the 4.2% rate, which is, you know, pretty high for as these things go um in the next month or two.

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[11:34] my guess is that uh uh we probably won't see $100 barrel on oil again soon. Uh but it may not go back to the 5060 where it was prior to the war.

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[20:57] I think maybe you get at one at most two quarter point rate hikes in the next 6 to 12 months from the Fed. And if if that's really all you're looking at, um, that's just not that big a deal.

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[25:02] my guess is probably not at this point simply because to some degree things like gold are sensitive to rates uh and certainly real rates in particular if those are going to go stay higher, you know, where they are go up, um then gold typically would not benefit from that. you would only see gold uh maybe getting another tailwind if rates were going to go down if the economy really slows down substantially.

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[25:56] I don't think it's going to um have a big boost given that basically all the tech AI stuff has kind of taken the you know the attention and the kind of the speculative money has gone away from those alternative u you know digital assets uh that they used to get you know a few years ago um that now people are more interested in in some of these uh you know tech AI related stuff rather than than Bitcoin and things

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[27:13] Uh yeah, I'd be surprised if there was a recession this year or in the next 12 months.

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[28:14] I think there could be a gradual you know weakening but nothing that would be to the level of a recession in the next 6 to 12 months.

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[23:09] Um, you know, my guess is that, you know, the tech space is still going to be the driver of what happens in the market. Uh, the sort of tech AI, you know, and kind of the adjacent areas and then kind of everything else.

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[24:14] I think the kind of the maybe call it the easy money part of the cycle is passed. Um and you're going to get into the kind of the choppier more volatile part of the uh kind of market cycle coming up in the next 6 to 12 months.

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[17:00] I think inflation is going to stay relatively high and be sort of somewhere close to what wage growth will be. I think right now real uh you know inflation adjusted disposable personal income growth is about zero year-over-year. So there's basically been almost no increase in in real disposable income.

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[33:41] even housing inflation rental you know prices in aggregate have been slowing down quite a bit for a couple years now um and I think that's probably going to continue as well um just from you know less demand from from you know lower immigration and the fact there has been at least some building going on

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[28:10] bonds for an asset class have been dead for 5 years. And I think without a a a meaningful change in fiscal policy and a meaningful change in monetary policies uh in in the western world uh I think bonds stay dead.

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[16:28] I've argued with you in the past and um and I've written a lot of pieces in the past couple of years highlighting that there's a lot you know very exciting changes occurring all across Latin America political change corporate governance changes uh growth of local pension funds all of which argue for a rerating of local assets that are deeply deeply undervalued.

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[27:02] I think the highest odds are, you know, you're going to be in an inflationary boom.

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[35:51] I think I think it's a story for the next 12 months. Yep. I think it's a story for the next 12 months because the the yen is now so cheap and the JGB yields are uh are starting to move higher. More importantly, the BOJ is starting to raise rates uh and starting to sound a little more inflation hawkish.

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[24:06] if you're playing the infrastructure development trade, that's got another year, 18 months to it, maybe two years, but that's going to end. And that whole infrastructure side of the trade is going to go away, and you're going to have to move to the revenue generation side of of the trade.

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[16:55] S&P 500 earnings are expected to grow north of 20% and and you know, that's all fine, but you know, when you take a look at the five hyperscalers, they're talking about spending, I'm looking at my notes real quick, 760 billion this year. They're going to only expense about 211 billion of that. So, the depreciation bill that nobody's paying attention to is coming due over the next couple of years, and that's going to impact earnings growth as well.

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[8:56] Trump may even lower interest rates before the midterm election, which of course will bring down the dollar and bring gold prices up. He's going to do everything he can to pump this up.

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[12:14] We believe there's going to be a bust. They're doing everything artificially to prop this market up.

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[5:48] I believe this is there's no end in sight. There's going to be a false flag event, something that reignites this war.

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[32:26] Bitcoin 30 to 40,000 and it will settle around there. It might go under 30, but I don't think it will.

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[32:32] Gold 3 and 1/2 thousand. It will go in and it will find its level, I believe, around there. It might go a little bit lower. It might shake about a lot. But, when all is said and done, that's where it will be and that I'll be DCA'ing in then.

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[32:55] this particular um storm, which is one of of um month end, quarter end, half year end, year end, all at the same time, which is the end of June, that should rectify itself in July and then we should be off to the races again.

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[25:53] I think there's a great shot that we see 4500 on this next up leg, if not higher. Okay? But I will start to look at 4500 as a place to potentially lighten up my position

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[21:55] I don't think I think oil is going to the mid-50s. I have no interest in buying it. Uh I'm still short. I'm certainly I have a level in which I will cover uh and re and re-short again.

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[26:55] Uh, I think it's got a great chance to go down to 7200. Uh, I think the highs are in. I think the next resistance would be about it would be at 7520 would be where I would be reselling and adding on to my position.

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[18:00] I think we get at least one, maybe two before the year's over. Uh, I think that they're warranted. I think that they're due.

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[5:29] interest rates really if you would just let them trade freely David and let the free market determine what they are the 10ear notes are now just under 5% they were almost at 5% I think they're going to end up near near 6% by the end of the year

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[30:19] I would also look at, you know, the dollar, the Dixie doesn't trade enough for me to want to get involved with it. But if I were going to trade the Dixie, I would sell it here.

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[21:25] we've got midterms coming up, which is termally ter normally between now and midterms, the markets are lower anyways. You throw a rate a rate hike in there, you could see some pretty serious selling.

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[6:05] I'd be long oil at this point. Uh but as volatile as it is, if you want to be long oil, the way to do it is through, I think, oil stocks or by uh doing spreads with um commodity options. And I'm putting that theory into practice myself. I'm long a lot of oil stocks, and uh I actually have bull spreads on for oil at this point. I think they're going to work out well.

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[17:01] I think um what's really cheap is the shares of the companies that produce it. So, I think that's the best way to play it because Look, let's go back to the last peak of the oil or energy boom, which was in 1980. And in 1980 about 20% of the S&P was oil and gas and energy generally, 20%. Today, as we speak, it's 4%. So, uh people don't I mean, the market is just not interested in oil and gas stocks. And as a kind of uh the Catholics would say an outward sign of inward grace is the dividends that they're yielding. I mean, some oil and gas stocks are yielding 10% or more in current dividends, and they're safe dividends. And if uh if I'm right about oil and gas themselves trending higher over the short term, forget about the long-term of history, those dividends are going to go up.

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[23:20] I guess of all these things, and not just because it's used to create urea, uh which is nice. Um I guess I'm most favorably towards natural gas at these current prices, around $3.

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[22:05] I think the play is really to buy the commodities themselves at this point. And particularly corn. I think corn is the cheapest of the commodities relative to its cost of production.

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[26:04] Yeah. I think so, because sulfur is uh largely a byproduct of refining fossil fuels. So, um it would seem that sulfur prices, which have gone up a lot, cuz a lot of it comes from the Middle East, uh are going to descend and the costs involved in creating fertilizers will go down. So, yeah, that's a reasonable play, and I'd be friendly towards these uh fertilizer companies, absolutely. Both of the ones you mentioned.

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[30:49] I'd say that the bull market in gold is still in motion. And this is just another fluctuation along the way. Listen, at the very beginning of the bull market uh in 1976, gold had reached $200 an ounce, up from $35. And then it collapsed down to a I remember well cuz cuz I took it This was the first I mean, it it really treated me well cuz I I took advantage of that collapse. It went down to $103.50. And then subsequently it rose to $800.

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[32:14] so, I've concentrated on the mining stocks, which actually are very underpriced now relative to everything else. Uh gold is not a not a good speculation at this point.

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[37:58] But, but my answer to the question is, they're going higher because from the early 1980s, they were in a long-term bear market. They went from, say, 15% to negative numbers, which, frankly, I thought was metaphysically impossible to have negative interest rates, but it happened because that's that's all controlled and distorted in the economy we're living in today. Well, since 2022, they've been going up. I think they're going to go up much higher because the Federal Reserve is forced at this time to buy most or a lot of, anyway, the US government's debt.

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[7:47] for years uh I've been predicting something I call the greater depression. I think we've already entered upon the greater depression, which I define as a period of time in which most people's standard of living drops significantly.

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[48:04] Uh copper is something that people have been watching. So, I'll say it's $6 right now. Um And And of course, if the world is electrified, which it's going to be, uh uh copper is the way to do it.

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[7:27] I think that Bitcoin is uh not done going down, I'm afraid. And typically these corrections of Bitcoin are in the 75 to 80% range. So if you just take 125 and you go down uh you know 3/4 of that, what does that put you? Somewhere around uh 30 35. So I absolutely expect Bitcoin to be below 50.

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[22:31] I don't think gold is, you know, going to make new highs and I think it will probably be sideways to down over the next year or so.

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[21:10] I think the US dollar is going higher. Uh so especially if you are um comparing gold to the US dollar, right? There are other economies that look at gold in terms of their currencies, but in terms of the US dollar, I think this bet is flatout wrong. And I would be uh intrigued by the opportunity to take the other side of that.

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[22:22] as we head into these more challenging times that gold is going to be preferred, continue to be preferred over Bitcoin.

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[23:48] I think that you know we'll probably be sideways to down for a little bit here but I think by the end of the year in 2027 you know we'll see new highs in equities.

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[0:00] we're going to likely see a major correction until at least the second half of 2027, if not 2028.

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[4:01] I think that we're going to continue to see inflation be sticky, if not a problem, as real world assets get repriced

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[0:43] well-known investor in the gold space, Pierre Lassonde, has said, "Just on the M2 money supply alone, we're talking about $17,000 plus dollars per ounce." And that's his prediction over the next 5 years.

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[15:23] Are we going to get back to anything close to that? I mean, I I apparently before this Singaporean tanker, uh, was hit, you had 70 crossings. So, I mean, could we get to 100, 110? Probably. I'd be surprised if we get all the way back up to 130

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[18:30] I do think you will see a meaningful acceleration of adoption of clean energy technologies. Solar panels, batteries, electric vehicles. Um you we've already seen spiking exports of those goods from China to the rest of the world in the last few months. I think that that's only going to continue.

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[18:45] I think a lot of countries who have been wary of taking Chinese EVs into their country are going to relax that. I know in Canada where you are, you know, Mark Carney had already agreed to allow in about 40,000 or so Chinese EVs in January. I think that's going to be just the tip of the iceberg.

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[17:59] One, they're going to see more infrastructure in the Gulf to circumvent the Strait of Hormuz. Obviously, the Emirates are building more pipeline capacity to Fujairah. I'm sure you'll see more Saudi capacity. I think you'll see many more pipelines built over the coming years.

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[3:23] Whether or not this is going to, you know, uh break break down the the the ceasefire and the MOU, I don't think so. I think that what caused this deal in the first place, David, is that Iran had successfully weaponized the Strait of Hormuz against the United States, had coerced the United States to back down. And so, I don't think that there's really any political will in Washington right now to to re-re-initiate hostilities with Iran.

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[13:57] we could see it pull back to roughly about 6,000 on the S&P 500 down to about 5,500. And so, that is from, you know, the current price today. That is about 18 to a 24% uh pullback in the equities market.

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[14:39] If we take a look at this one from a a zoomed in perspective, this current leg, it is showing that we could see about to 7100 down to about 7,000. So, if the S&P 500 pulls back here, we got about a 3 and a half to about 6% drop. And that'll be a healthy correction.

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[11:22] The next downside target for Bitcoin is $44. Sorry, $44,000. That will break this low from back in 2024. It will be a big cleanse. It's about another 17, I think, percent haircut

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[24:09] I I would say Bitcoin has the most downside potential. If we if we take a look at the the Bitcoin monthly chart, this chart is pointing to a very significant drop... The downside move, this sell-off, and this bounce is pointing to 16,000, which comes back down to a previous low in 2022. So, I think that has the most percentage- wise from where we are right now. I mean, we're looking at another 72% haircut from where it was.

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[33:05] It is still showing that we're going to see a very precipitous drop in gold, silver, and miners. uh they're they're going to continue to unwind, I think... is saying we could see GDX, for example, come all the way down to 69. It could come all the way down to about uh 58. So, from where it's trading right now, we could see another 20% haircut fairly easily.

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[34:34] I feel like the dollar is putting in, you know, one of these types of bases. It's had an unwinding event. Now we we've put in one of these bases and each time we see a big leg higher. And so I think we are on the verge of seeing the US dollar move up... You can see these moves previously when we came out of this type of pattern. 20% move, 20% move, and 20% move.

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[41:30] they might not have a good summer, but 5 years from now they won't remember this summer.

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