[2:41] does it change the long-term trajectory of Russia being a declining power and me much more concerned about what a chaotic catastrophic Russia looks like rather than a menacing one? No, I think that's in the 5 10 year time horizon and it's one of my higher conviction views to be honest.

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[15:10] Germany which was already struggling just barely above recession levels anyway. This is almost assuredly going to push Germany into a recession.

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[5:33] we're going to have a supply shock the likes of which we haven't seen since the 1970s.

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[27:01] I think it's due to come down another 15 or 20% particularly against the Asian currencies.

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[28:22] does this mean the dollar is going to go down another 7 to 10% in 2026? That would be on the high side, but I would say 5% would be my guess of what we see at the end of the year.

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[1:45] So, I kind of see the path of the stock market being like that. probably will end up at a lower level at the end of this year than where we are today.

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[19:42] My guess is that gold probably will start to do uh do well over the coming uh months and probably years.

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[14:48] Even if the war ends, we know that a lot of uh countries are going to be looking to increase their stockpiles of oil. So, they'll still be buying for that uh reason. It'll probably still be a geopolitical risk premium associated with oil. So prices could fall enough to help us avoid a recession, but they're not going back to where they were in February.

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[4:26] And uh I think it's going to go down between 40 and 55.

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[3:49] that I believe is still coming in roughly October, one year after the bubble popped

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[11:35] And I expect that that's going to happen despite diminishing returns um for at least the next 20 years because we only have 4% of the world that has exposure to Bitcoin.

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[25:30] I think that outperformance is going to continue for the next several years so we are definitely looking and with the markets all down because of the of the uh Iran situation and the oil price, we are looking for opportunities in in foreign markets.

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[17:16] the crop yields, uh, you know, 6 months from now will be undoubtedly softer. I'll use the word soft, which is a nice a nice um a nice neutral word, but they'll be softer uh than maybe anticipated.

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[4:11] I believe we will see some slowdown in purchase activity again. It's a big big country. There's all kinds of different markets, but I would suggest on average we will see a slowdown in in new home purchase.

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[22:02] condos and town homes obviously because that's that's rental stock. You don't see too many single family rentals. That's a much lower percentage of single family are rented. So they are the most impacted. Condos absolutely like it's just it's it's it's a horror show out there. Uh but we have to anticipate that there's going to be some there could be some price improvement eventually. not now, not this year, maybe not even next year

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[26:10] I don't think so. And that's only because I I have a pretty rational belief that the war in Iran will end whether it ends in two weeks or whether it ends in a month and a half. Um with the midterms looming in the United States, I believe that eventually we'll see an end to that war.

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[25:22] But I am absolutely certain that by 2028 we will see a return to reduced immigration numbers something like 325 to 375,000.

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[27:21] Well, right now the math favors renters. I mean, rents are falling. They'll continue to fall. They'll continue to fall all this year. They'll probably continue to fall into next year.

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[14:00] we actually think uranium is one of the winners will be one of the winners coming out of this just like it was in the 1970s and '80s as countries respond to massive energy shocks.

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[7:10] I personally believe that we are going to go through a period of significant disruption to to the job market. I think that's going to be a combination of uh a lot of natural pullback of things that got overheated and bloated uh and companies that use AI as an excuse uh and and sort of a cover if you will to uh you know do um uh draw downs in their employee base.

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[37:33] I say it's going to come online faster than skeptics think, but it still will take a long time. Um I think the first half a million barrels a day will be easier than most people realize to bring online.

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[21:01] So basically what you're saying is more layoffs will happen before this gets better unless something dramatic changes because again we're not seeing the benefits that we were supposed to be seeing at this point from one big beautiful bill.

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[7:36] natural gas in the next five years you're going to have a real great bull market.

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[33:08] the dollar just in this. You're going to have counter trend rallies, but you're just in a massive secular decline.

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[19:38] Yeah, I think the market overall is going lower, but there are places in the market that are that are outperforming dramatically.

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[10:40] this year a real bounce and and a slowdown. So that's real stagflation

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[14:40] then all of a sudden recession risk rises sharply this year and the Fed's going to have to cut.

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[10:23] the ability for oil to globally to come down is going to be very sticky because of all of the damage that Iran has caused across the entire ecosystem and the the and the and the supply chains of energy. So in other words really sticky inflation

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[16:18] industrials, materials, and energy, those those three groups in in the 1968 to81 period, they were like 50% of the S&P's composition. 50-0. In recent years, they got to like 10, maybe even a little bit lower, 9%. Only 9% of the S&P was in industrials, energy, and materials. And now that's maybe up toward 13. Are we going back to 50? No, but we're going back to like 2025

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[0:00] And I still think this will turn out to be a 10 to 15% correction. And we're halfway through that and that it it could could happen in this week or or next week.

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[17:59] and uh uh you know I'm I'm still using 7700 uh by by the end of u of the of the year

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[23:04] Um China invading Taiwan. That that was what was on the timet, right? But it's not on the time table anymore.

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[0:11] Gold is now trading more than it should be by historical levels. But that doesn't mean it couldn't go to $10,000 an ounce or more because who wants to hold the dollar?

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[0:36] The Iranians are going to make this an asymmetric war, a long war. That's bad news for us here in the West.

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[3:59] Certainly before we get foreign exchange controls, which I also think are on the way, that'll make it impossible for you to diversify even if you're able to.

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[20:44] I think that these mining stocks are, believe it or not, still undervalued. Gold slightly overvalued. Mining stocks still very cheap. I think they got a big run in front of them still.

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[32:41] I think rates are headed up now in another big cycle. it's going to take them back to and above the levels we saw back in the 80s.

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[29:03] I think the Iranians are going to come out on top of this. The uh I don't think the US or the Israelis really know what they're doing here.

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[8:43] I think that it's going to be very hard for the market to break through that ceiling between now and the midterms. Um, wouldn't shock me at all if we go back up to kind of those highs or or if we just go sideways for a while. But I think it's going to be very hard to break out of that, you know, sideways channel uh between now and the election.

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[29:56] We think gold probably goes down and touches its 200 day moving average. Probably the same with silver, but that might actually present an opportunity to buy some, um, add some.

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[29:56] We think gold probably goes down and touches its 200 day moving average. Probably the same with silver, but that might actually present an opportunity to buy some, um, add some.

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[34:02] But I do still think that that's where the capital will come. I do think that the United States will outperform the rest of the world. Um, and I don't I don't think it's over yet.

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[8:55] The inflation story is still going to remain with us uh even when this war ends.

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[9:02] Uh higher commodity prices are a new reality even though we'll we'll come off uh these highs when this officially ends.

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[9:26] Well then interest rates are still going to remain high.

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[8:27] and I don't think and I've argued that we're not going back to $65 oil.

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[18:12] I do think that the LG crunch around the world is going to continue and that natural gas prices in the US are more likely to catch up to the upside to global prices rather than the reverse.

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[23:18] I do think though that uh over the next couple years gold is the most important reserve asset in the world and that um it will resume its rally as will silver.

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[23:18] I do think though that uh over the next couple years gold is the most important reserve asset in the world and that um it will resume its rally as will silver.

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[8:08] I don't think this is something that takes us to new highs because of that major worry.

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[6:13] It plays out with a um a decline in the value of the currency that becomes unmanageable and disorderly uh which is followed by a collapse in that currency and then a reset, some kind of new currency system is created going forward. So, we're we're deep into that process now. I would say that we're in the death spiral part of that because uh the the numbers are just so immense.

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[7:01] And at some point, well, the what comes next is called a a crackup boom in the Austrian School of Economics. That's when a critical mass of people realizes that it's the government's policy to inflate away the currency. So, they just dump the currency. When they get paid, they convert that money into real stuff and then the currency falls off the table, which is the same thing as saying the price of the real stuff goes through the roof. And you know, look at gold and silver. We're kind of there right now.

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[33:15] I think the uh the commodities bull market has legs um because we're making so many plans as a civilization and a lot of those plans require an awful lot of various kinds of commodities.

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[38:43] So, the price is going to gap up at some point into the, you know, when the phase change happens. And so today's price, even though it's an all-time record, is going to seem, you know, pathetically cheap, cheaper than dirt.

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[39:26] And uh so you know there's a decent chance that uranium becomes much more expensive in the not too distant future.

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[35:09] No, I think inflation's heading back to 2% or even lower.

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[11:26] And now my prediction is that it's back over $50 headed to 100 again. It's never going to go back under 50 because of all the inflation that we've seen in the past.

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[9:59] and uranium is not reached its previous high of $120 a pound. Uh I think it's around $85 a pound. So, there's more room to grow with the uranium stocks as well.

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[13:35] Plus, we'll probably see that with the March CPI coming out that'll be I think substantially higher.

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[19:04] So, I would just tell anybody out there, if you've got money, sure you want to put it into oil, that's going to pay off for you, oil and gas, but don't walk away from precious metals because in the long run, they are going to go through the roof.

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[31:55] Whatever you do, invest in anything that comes out of the ground. Food. If you grow it, it's going to be a lifesaver. The world is not going to have enough food. We know that now.

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[28:06] I think the dollar ddollarization is unstoppable.

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[33:34] And I don't think we're going to move in a fundamentally new direction until the bottom falls out of the market. And I think that's coming.

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[0:20] I think we're going to see at least a 30 to 40% pullback in silver.

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[0:23] I think we're going to see a big 20 plus% pullback in gold.

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[11:43] Based on the chart pattern right now, the first major level is 140.

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[0:12] I think in the background I'm seeing the path to deterioration of the labor market and paradoxically the less visible it is the worse it's probably going to be.

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[13:25] I think we're heading towards very strong deflationary environment which however could be countermanded by political and fiscal actions.

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[17:09] Um and I think platinum comes next. So in this way it was predictable that platinum will catch uh fire too.

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[33:09] So I would expect that we would have at a bare minimum a year from now a six handle on the unemployment rate.

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[8:08] given current debt levels, the things that we've all studied for 20 years and given oil at 100 and malinvestment and shaky credits, uh there is absolutely no chance the Fed's next move is going to be tightening.

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[1:58] I do think that inflation is is likely to stay higher for longer.

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[12:58] I think that there is a a very important macro trade, if you will, that is emerging here, that could be quite significant, which is basically betting that rates are going to go substantially lower.

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[28:12] I think copper is about to break out in a big way.

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[21:44] we're going to see most likely a big move towards in my view um you know comp countries starting to use gold uh as a currency either through a gold standard uh fix uh you know a fixed state of their currency with gold um backing gold in in a certain way with with their fiat currencies.

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[10:05] Tariffs will very much be a story um for the months and probably years ahead. Uh as you mentioned, the Supreme Court struck struck down the AIPA tariffs uh deeming that they uh were not within the president's authority to impose. Uh however, the president does have plenty of other authorities to impose tariffs and he's signaled u a willingness and desire uh to to make use of them. So we can expect more tariffs imposed under for example section 301 uh section 232.

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[8:47] even if we go into a recession, I think uh long-term interest rates on Treasury bonds will go higher, not lower, and that will break the pattern of the f the first 40 years of my career. And I think that's what's going to happen.

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[19:59] I think that we are in a multi-year period. We're not we're probably in the in the second inning at at uh is probably the latest that we are in the game of this nine inning, you know, baseball game analogy of foreign markets outperforming the United States.

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[21:09] I think gold will continue to be a strong performer.

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[23:07] private credit is a total unmitigated disaster and it's going to get worse

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[38:20] you're going to see some pretty wild redemption requests come June of 2026.

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[5:50] So oil's going to go up in price because the the paper and futures markets will eventually catch the physical markets. The the physical markets up here, David, and the paper markets down here, right? And and eventually the paper market's going to be bug mugged by the physical reality and the price of of the futures will go up to match the physical.

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[10:29] They're not going to crush Iran. Point number one and Iran will in with a high probability continue to control the strait and and that means that functionally it'll it'll be closed.

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[21:33] I think this could be the death nail for sanctions. I think the sanctions regime will start coming off.

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[38:20] Yes, I I do. I I I I maintain that I think the top of the the cycle will be remember I I changed that from a point estimate of 6,000 to a range of six six to 7,000.

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[24:37] Now, they're signaling to us over the next 5 years a decline in the dependency on fiat currencies, the dollar and the euro in particular.

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[32:39] the gold price can fall to $4,000 or it could fall to $3,800. It can actually fall even further and still be in a long upward trend. We think that the gold price probably will trade stay above 3 $3,800 4,000 in the near term and that the price will probably consolidate with a slight upward bias over the next year uh and move slightly and move somewhat higher in starting in the last four months of this year and going into 2027 and possibly going into 2028.

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[26:34] I think that you probably will see at some point over the next month or so oil prices coming back down.

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[4:45] I'm in the camp that the current one will probably end up being around a 70% drop, maybe plus or minus 4 to 5%.

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[9:06] I think the dollar is going to probably start trending back up here maybe to around like 105 106 somewhere in in that ballpark. Maybe a little maybe a little higher maybe like 107 or something.

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[9:20] yeah, I think it has more to go. I mean, it's like it hasn't ever gotten the level. Like, for example, uh when when the when the min gold miners hit such highs, we basically cut those in half uh right at the end of the year, beginning of January 2nd, 3rd, and 4th. And we did the same thing with silver. Same. We owned Heckla. We cut that in half on the silver miners because it it tripled in a year. And so, it was a thing to do. Well, all those have come back now, you know, and you have a lot of retail in those stocks. In energy, you don't have as much retail. They're not chasing those things. Uh, it's more of a steady climb where people are starting to realize that, hey, you know, we're we're going to need we're going to need this and it's going to no matter what, it's going to be a while before they get this thing resolved in terms of getting back to normal. Uh, it may never go back to normal for quite a while. So, I think you have to stay with energy in here for the time being.

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[9:08] going forward I think commodities will outperform uh stocks uh over the next probably 5 years at least.

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[9:48] one of the takeaways in my big picture macro analysis is that we're going to see the next leg up in inflation

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[6:47] in the longer run over the course of this year, I think oil is going

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[25:57] I think gold now is on the way back to probably the 50-day moving average, maybe slightly above 5,000

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[24:28] I wouldn't be surprised if gold actually would want to come back down here maybe below yeah maybe below $4,000 at some point. maybe testing this whole uh uh support that the the top from last year April 3,500

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[29:32] it usually always ends with a total um uh panic sell off at the end of a crypto winter. We haven't seen that yet.

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[4:49] the dollar loses 90% of its value every 20, 30 years or so. And there's no stopping that train. There's going to be more government spending. There's going to be more inflation.

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[12:04] You just buy Bitcoin, you wait five years, and you look back five years later and all of this stuff is noise.

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[25:42] we may be getting few more months of sideways or downward action

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[38:48] I think um a lot of people all over the world are going to realize gold is just a much better um money than the dollar and you'd rather not be financing the US government as it does all of these crazy insane criminal uh things around the world. So I think we'll see more demand for X aut

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[42:43] for us, the most likely scenario would be uh Cuba making economic concessions to uh Washington to secure regime survival.

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[7:47] I I think the markets are already looking past the war and I yeah I I would think that the emerging markets uh uh Europe, Japan, Korea, you know there's there's still lots of opportunities there with low lower valuation. m multiples. So I I would stick stick with a go global.

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[19:54] I honestly think um the war is going to go on for a very long time and I hope that I'm wrong.

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[32:12] The long-term real price of oil will be lower from here. um especially if the top is already in.

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[21:03] 2025 was year one of the US underperforming the rest of the world I think the US uh returns last year which were pretty good um ranked in the 60s. I think I think there was 50 or 60 other markets around the world that outperformed the US last year. U most of emerging markets did, Europe did, Japan did, etc., etc. And so, uh, we think we're in the very early stages of this. We think 2026 will be year two, uh, where the non- US markets outperform the US.

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[41:45] And then third, and by the way, we watched the China 10-year government bond to get a sense of how China's doing on that deflation fight. Right now, it's at 1.85%. When we first wrote about this 6 months or so ago, it was at 1.6%. We think it's going to be over 2% by the end of the year.

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[12:35] And guess what? Eight to 10% is what JP Morgan thinks the S&P will do between now and the end of the year. Their year-end target was 7500. They lowered it to 7200. We're at 6600.

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[26:44] We think the energy markets will probably split in two um with a western hemisphere and an Asian hemisphere.

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[27:09] um emerging markets for 2026 and 2027 are forecast to have higher EPS growth than the United States.

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[22:15] the first crash is the fastest and hardest. Stocks will go down 40 to 50% in two to four months. In other words, it's they're going to go down 80 or 90 because bubbles don't go down 50% like normal bare markets

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[12:17] gold is not going to go up after just streaking from from 2,000 to 5,000 in the last 3 years. It's part of the bubble

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[19:20] I used to have my target for a 50% crash in gold now to get back to normal levels it's going to have to crash 70 to 80 okay

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[17:04] gold once we crash here and come down to reality that means gold goes down to maybe a,000 $2,000 instead of 5600 here recently

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[14:08] I'm projecting that TLT could double or a little more in this crisis when everything else including now gold and silver uh go down

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[1:54] I also think gold like you're saying is still going to head down to that 3500 level.

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[4:39] I would expect gold to trade back to let's say potentially 46 to 4700.

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[6:46] I think we're still on pace for $10,000 gold. It just may be a couple years away.

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[9:10] I still have a low-end target here of $50 to $54

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[11:05] I think there's a swing trade here for upside B on GDX back into the 94 range.

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[20:43] My guess is we'll see somewhere in that $3,500 range, but it will be very short-lived. And so, you know, the idea is is that the wash out of the weak hands... My guess is 3500ish give or take. It won't last very long and we will be back towards 5,000 within 3 to 6 months.

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[22:49] the dollar is likely going to weaken further here. And this is just in that bigger ddollarization scenario which will take years to play out, right? But slowly the dollar likely goes lower. And I'm I'm a bear on the dollar.

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[27:49] And so I still am looking for that move to 80 to 85,000 before all is said and done.

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[28:53] So what this tells me is that the stock market, the S&P could easily trade back down to 5600 by year end.

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[3:04] I think the fundamentals that drove the metal prices higher still uh still in place, still intact.

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[5:42] I look at our deficit is going to only only widen if you look at u some of the new applications and and uh you know silver batteries silver the the silver carbon uh Samsung batteries, solid state batteries um uh coming in 27. Well, they're actually coming for gadgets in 26, but the real um you know, the real demand I think we'll we'll see out of that coming in um in 27.

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[9:25] it does appear to us, yeah, that we could be in for a bit of a retrenchment in the markets just based upon fundamentals

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[10:44] I think you know to see a global recession uh can all of a sudden becomes quite probable

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[9:31] you've got uh increasing energy costs that's going to cause uh increasing inflation

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[9:42] I've got interest rates actually going up quite a bit

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[0:22] there's a a good bit more market weakness that potentially may linger here for a while.

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[6:09] what markets are expecting, this will be a fairly short-lived event and then we're going to get back to business of growing the economy.

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[30:25] So, you can see this market rally back above the 200 day moving average next week. Uh get back to 6720, 6750 in there, that wouldn't be surprising at all.

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[0:11] I think this is the year I finally get to my $40 barrel call in crude oil.

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[0:15] I'm not a fan of gold. I think initially goes to 4,000. That I haven't said that in decades. I fully expect silver to go back to near 50 and gold initially to buy to drop down to 4,000.

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[0:18] I fully expect silver to go back to near 50 and gold initially to buy to drop down to 4,000.

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[0:24] I still think Bitcoin is going to head towards 10,000.

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[0:06] Like this is the beginning of the third 50% draw down in the S&P 500 since 2000.

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[17:19] I fully expect this number to be close to to zero by this year, if not next year.

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[6:51] My call of $6,000 is standing because I expected a correction and it's early in the year. So by year end to go to 6,000 would require that that market sentiment of bullishness that's been prevalent for quite some time uh still remains and I don't see a reason that that changed

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[11:11] those uh numbers will go up and we're looking probably at a 5 to 8% inflation problem for a period of time as that goes through the supply chain.

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[38:37] I think we're looking at um you know a longer cycle and a more painful cycle than we did in '08.

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[10:14] Prices of gold should be skyrocketing along with silver. It's going to happen. It's it has to happen.

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[34:16] China is going to take the lead in AI and these American companies that they've overinvested in are going to go bust. Not all of them, but many of them. And that's going to crash the markets even more.

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[30:00] China is going to lead the world in AI.

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[0:00] So inflation is going to continue to accelerate. Inflation is going to go into the double digits and who knows it may even go into the triple digits.

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[1:49] I think we might actually hit 50 trillion before Trump finishes his term. So that'd be about 11 trillion more in debt over the next 3 years.

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[2:03] I think we could be on the cusps of, an official recession

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[8:00] Unemployment is going to spike and inflation is going to spike even more.

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[12:35] I think it's going to be a US dollar crisis, a sovereign debt crisis.

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[14:52] I think the Dow could go down to less than two ounces of gold in, you know, in le in the next 5 to 10 years

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[36:58] I don't think gold's going to stay under 5,000 for long.

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[9:23] And then when Trump loses in 2028 and we get a Democrat in 2029

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[0:00] I think gold by the end of this year is back to $3500 per ounce.

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[0:21] I think silver is going to be back to about $50 to $54 per ounce by year end.

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[3:43] I would expect a draw down in the next 3 to six months back to $70 a barrel.

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[23:25] I still think it can go up as high as 80 to 85,000.

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[34:14] you will see in my opinion possibly by year end 5600 on the S&P.

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[33:23] I think that's where things are going to move more and more. So, I'm looking at the defensive names that pay dividends versus shying away from some of these memory stocks like Micron, which I think will eventually crash 50 plus percent to the downside.

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[12:03] which means we continue to price this in as a shock rather than a structural change.

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[3:51] companies like BYD or Xiaomi which have been hit hard uh by weak sales over the last couple months, but we actually think especially in the case of BYD that sales are going to go up because they just launched some new models and last Friday they just launched new battery technology where they can charge a full car up in about 10 minutes.

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[14:44] which is why we're very bullish on the Chinese um semiconductor companies.

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[20:35] a lot of countries uh to offset the risk of a plummeting US dollar are willing to put R&B in their reserves

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[21:47] I'm actually quite optimistic for the Chinese equity markets over the next 1 to twoyear periods.

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[23:29] I think these Chinese technology players are going to continue to grow over the next 1020 years.

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[4:46] I think we can get a 20 to 30% draw down in the gold miners from the highs because of those diesel costs which are up 70% off the December lows

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[8:37] We're going to go from three K uh three cuts expected to zero and maybe even hikes coming in later in the year as inflation really bounces

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[23:02] Nvidia a year ago, a year, a year from today probably is down 50%. Because everyone's in the same crowded, stupid trade

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[28:50] by 1981 49% of the S&P 500's composition was in materials industrials and energy 49%. We're right now maybe 14. We're nowhere near I Are we going back to 49? No. But are we going at 25 30? Yes.

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[34:27] next 30 days, um, Trump's going to try to bring out the fire hose, but you still have a lot of problems in the Middle East around like normalization. So, getting long the VIX, the VIX getting long volatility

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[5:46] I'm actually still buying today because I think the gold price is going a lot higher than than where it is today considering the amount of debt deficits.

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[2:14] I believe that this uh conflict that has escalated with the US and Iran will continue to drive uh central banks out of the dollar

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[18:48] I think three years we we'll see many investors come into the old mining stock space and so that's kind of my time horizon for those.

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[25:48] we're going to get a rally maybe starting in the next week or so that goes through April and then we're going to get into summer, which is premidterm elections. I'd expect a lot more chop and volatility during the summer, get through till we get through the midterm elections and then a rally into year end.

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[0:00] I expect a pretty nasty collapse. I expect something similar to 2008.

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[3:01] a year from now, oil is trading at $69.

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[10:17] it wouldn't surprise me at all if we were down in the next, you know, let's say 6 weeks 8 to 15%.

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[10:05] I do believe gold is going to break to the upside again. I think gold's in a consolidation pattern which will break to the upside along with silver.

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[24:07] I thought the grain I think the grains are bottom. So, I'm certainly bullish the grain market.

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[24:13] I'm certainly bullish cotton.

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[6:16] I have been a US dollar bear and um I acknowledge that right now the US dollar is going up of course but I don't think this lasts.

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[0:00] You don't need to be a statistician or an actuary or, you know, a CFA level three to know that the front page of the Wall Street Journal is now every day showing another private credit fund under stress. And so, you know, I think we're on the doorstep of of a credit event.

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[19:25] This is a bad time to be buying semis. Forward returns from this point in the cycle are horrendous... I think forward returns looking at 12 months, 24 months are going to be pretty poor for some.

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[35:52] The risk you should be concerned about right now is not recession, depression, interest rates going down. Owning bonds, having 40% of your portfolio in bonds does not hedge you against that risk.

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[11:20] I tell you this is the way you should think about it so the world production oil total you know oil production in the world is roughly around 100 million barrels per day okay and as you all know by now like 20% basically flows through you know the Persian Gulf. So which is about 20 million barrels per day. The you the typical sort of rule of thumb measure for Wall Street's you know energy you know oil analysts is this like you know if you lose suddenly okay 1 million barrels per day in terms of production that usually is associated with let's say a 10 to 15% increase in oil price. Okay. So right now we've gone from let's say $60 to $90. So that's a 50% increase in oil price from the from from the low.

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[25:20] My base case is that he loses the House. Okay. That they they they they hang on to the Senate but barely.

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[18:46] I think it's going to last long enough for the market to go down. Okay. And then that market going down will force Trump to basically tackle.

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[26:04] we think there's a huge pricing error in Adobe. They've got their earnings in a couple days. We've written about it extensively on our Substack. You can read our thesis there. The the market is saying well AI is going to essentially do away with traditional software as a service companies like Adobe. We have a totally different opinion than the sell side on that and we've extrapolated that on our Substack. We think it's just a remarkable business with remarkable earnings and there's no indication whatsoever in our opinion that the the dominant thesis that AI is going to do away with it is going to really materially impact the company going forward.

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[27:05] One of our best investment ideas is Harley-Davidson actually. the reality is you can buy the company's tangible assets for about.7 cents on the dollar right now. I'm talking all the inventory, factories, manufacturing, and a brand that's over 100 years old. the yield on Harley-Davidson right now is 16%. And that's before capital appreciation. So, let's say the stock went up 4% in the next 12 months. You could make a 20% yield on that.

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[6:53] M&A is going to be a big big theme next year. People say it's heated up, but it has nowhere near run its course.

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[7:37] They will, when I say they, I mean the big royalty and streaming companies will do more by way of transactions in the next seven years than they have in the last 40.

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[3:32] I actually believe that and there is now sufficient capital to follow up on good drill holes on good work. We're coming into a very very very exciting period throughout the value chain and mining. But I think two years from now we're coming into a particularly exciting period in the exploration side because there's been such a der of discoveries leading up to now. There's good results coming now and when a good deposit gets found, it will be bought for eyepopping multiples.

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[22:27] given the likelihood of the deterioration in purchasing power for the dollar and by the way the Canadian dollar for 10 years, I think if you look over the next decade, the gold price, at least the nominal gold price will do well.

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[22:29] So, I think that the high for oil is going to be in for at least for a couple months. And I I I can say that with a lot of conviction because we we study capitulation moments um scientifically and the move today is is um very very unusual. So yeah, I think the highs for for the year are probably in

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[29:09] Uh I think the sevies are going to break sometime in the next 6 months because of this whole artificial intelligence capbacks over overpromising.

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[14:23] Personally, I think silver is headed higher. Um, it's broken above. This is the next minor level of resistance at 8751 and it's at 86.98. So, not that far. And then, of course, this is major resistance at 97 to um $100 per ounce. I think silver is moving higher.

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[16:02] gold is going to keep grinding on up and silver which is the you know the FOMO gold will be all over the place until further notice and then may just go on another big run when gold goes above 6,000 as I feel it's likely to do.

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[24:25] So what I think is going to happen is that you know we're going to have Bitcoin down to around $40,000 within due course.

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[8:33] the stock market is in a bubble. It's in bubble territory and and it wasn't in bubble territory in 1978. The the PE ratio was eight. Now it's you know up in 29 28.

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[19:52] I thought we had an inflation problem just around the corner and the inflation genie would never be put back in the bottle. That's that's what I thought.

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[27:39] We've already said that the price of gasoline has gone up about 50 cents on average in the United States in the last few weeks and and it will go up. It'll continue to go up because as you just said, we had a West Texas Intermediate crude hit a hit a 52- week high today.

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[45:53] the American public is very negative on this and I think the Republicans led by Trump will take a real beating in the in the midterm elections so there's a political the political fallout will be big

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[2:39] we already we're already above 90. We've been above 93 94 in the last few days. pull back a little bit, but I think we're going to start to we're going to continue to see this climb continue. Hopefully um less volatile, but I think this year we'll we'll continue to bring a fair bit of volatility.

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[14:24] I think the start the smart money is going to start commit to come in over the next few quarters.

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[16:45] And that's why I say this is this is going to be the sector to be in for the next couple of years. I think we're going to see some things that is is going to shock a lot of people.

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[1:43] Now I'm calling for $500 silver. Is another 5x. That's possible. Oh, yeah. Uh look at the gold silver ratio. Uh traditionally has been 1 in 10 for over 2,000 years. Gold is trading 5,000 1 in 10. Silver is 5,000 $500.

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[5:04] I think if if we speak 12 months from now, we'll have a totally different situation. Now, it's still debatable whether the price discovery is in Shanghai or in Chicago in 12 months. everybody will agree it moved to Shanghai.

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[5:34] energy is unlikely to be cheap going forward. That's going to likely also have a a shift on inflation.

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[7:25] We got to lower rates. There's no way around it. And you know the economy requires that rates need to be lower.

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[8:37] I I think it's going to happen. I I think it sort of does not this is why I'm very sort of sympathetic with the idea that we're going to see more inflation because that's going to drive inflation and I do think they want inflation

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[13:39] I think we're in the very early stages of that. you know you may see some volatility that would be normal 20 30% pullback yeah sure that's normal that would probably happen now the direction of the trade the direction of the investment thesis I think it's long and it's got long legs in my view

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[27:04] I I I think we're going to see silver prices establish itself in triple digits.

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[27:42] I actually think that you know prices of metals are going to be elevated for the next 5 to 10 years.

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[25:55] you're going to have a scenario most likely where rates go lower and the dollar goes lower.

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[35:16] Because historically always does and I think I like to bet on history and when I see the price of derivatives like call options are not Yeah. you know, reflecting the the the possibility of that happening because as you can see, it's it's actually quite explosive what we tend to see.

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[36:08] Once energy starts inflecting, you see natural gas, diesel prices, all that going up. You're going to see ammonia prices going up. You're going to see fertilizers going up. Eventually, what do you see? Corn prices going up, cocoa going up. All these things are going to go up in price

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[3:36] At this point, I kind of think that's what's going to happen. And I think we'll fall back down into this range.

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[12:27] I would think the markets will want to run uh somewhere all the way up to we could very easily see it the S&P 500 run up to like um 600 and or 6,945 somewhere up here.

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[13:09] It might want to come right back up into resistance. That's around the 25 500 level. And percentage wise, I don't think it's all that much. It's probably one and a half or 2%. Yeah, it's about 2% upside and then we're going to run into resistance from there.

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[20:24] we still might see another couple green bars for Bitcoin, uh, because I think it's going to follow the stock market, but I do feel like things are going to fizzle out and we're probably going to see it head lower.

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[27:15] I think silver has potential to pop to about 140. That would be the next upside target based on technical patterns.

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[19:07] Well I I the damn six months for I doubt it the next six months.

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[7:41] I think the Chinese market is quite interesting. It could be one of the better performers.

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[5:47] I believe gold and silver are still in long-term uptrends

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[27:52] I don't think the Fed's going to cut much. I think that's a bit of a contrary opinion right now.

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[39:20] I think this is going to be a reasonably good year for uranium.

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[2:18] I mean, I if people think inflation's coming down over the next couple of three years, I think they're going to be very disappointed.

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[17:14] It'll go 3x in the next two years.

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[20:40] And then a year or so's time after that, it'll be oil and oil's going to go ballistic. Not soon, I don't think. But it will go ballistic at some point

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[15:56] we follow copper and uranium closely and and basically for the same reasons supply demand issue. Uh, there's just not enough supply in the big picture for either metal going forward... when you add all these factors up, we we're very bullish on copper

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[15:56] we follow copper and uranium closely and and basically for the same reasons supply demand issue. Uh, there's just not enough supply in the big picture for either metal going forward... when you add all these factors up, we we're very bullish on copper, we're very bullish on uranium

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[19:14] gold stocks have not moved relative to other asset classes. If you pull up a chart of gold and uh I mean yeah, gold and gold stocks, you'll see that gold stocks really haven't broken out as a group relative to the gold price... That is still ahead in my opinion and I'm investing accordingly.

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[6:12] And again, I'm looking at a downside move by mid year back to about 6,100 on the S&P. That would be our first major technical support.

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[7:10] my guess is is even though we'll have plenty of bounces eventually we do find our way all the way down to 5600 or so on the S&P

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[8:30] We could be in a year or two, even if the economy slides into recession. Oil could be $100 per barrel. That would not shock me one bit.

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[10:53] I'm unbelievably bullish on Bitcoin here... you look at a scenario where we could be seeing a big relief rally all the way up to 80 to 85,000.

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[12:15] I actually still think Bitcoin is going to eventually go lower... probably sub 50,000 down the line.

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[22:30] It broke above this 5100 little resistance here. It has upside to about 5,400... you're probably headed to about 5400 in the next days or week or so.

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[2:37] I suspect gold's going a lot higher. I have no idea how high it will go. That will depend a whole number of factors, geopolitical, economic, monetary, and otherwise.

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[16:48] I think there's going to be a great unraveling of all of these Treasury companies the minute we get a severe market correction which is well overdue in the NASDAQ and the S&P like it we're at historical valuations we haven't seen ever in terms of these markets so you're going to get a big correction someday

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[24:46] It's not a problem that's going to be solved by increased supply over the next 5 years. It's going to be solved by higher prices. That's that's how you're going to solve this problem. Much higher prices.

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[6:15] my advice has been, and it's been on record, that we were going to potentially ek slightly over 50,000. There'd be a celebration by the don't worry happy crowd on Wall Street. Little did I know that the attorney general would create a new stock sale signal for the next generation with her Dow 50,000 comment. But you're right, it's rolling over. I believe the major top has been put in and I believe we're going to go into a more consolidated sideways to down movement for the rest of the year in the stock market.

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[13:12] That's why I believe there's still a retest of those lows that were made in the high 60s in silver and around 44 4500 on gold.

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[13:12] That's why I believe there's still a retest of those lows that were made in the high 60s in silver and around 44 4500 on gold.

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[25:18] That's basically a 20% draw down from here. Um I think we could hit that whether we close there or not.

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[27:31] I think the I think the labor market recession continues

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[28:28] I think that the recession that we're currently in might not be acknowledged for a few years, but

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[25:54] I don't think the Fed is going to be able to put that genie back in the bottle. meaning what what's that 2% or less? I don't think it's going to 2% or less.

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[32:41] I think it's going up. I think I think it's going it's going it's going up. It's going to it's going to drift up.

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[35:29] 92% no change. Okay. So that's that's where I am. I'm I'm with the market. I'm with the market.

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[17:57] Do you think silver could hit $200? Oh yeah. I can't guarantee it, of course, but I think I think 2026 just because David silver is the metal of the in information age.

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[11:06] So that's why I think we're in for the collapse of the US dollar. As a worst case scenario, I hope it doesn't happen, but I'm prepared for it if it does happen.

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[6:10] So you have AI kicking in right now. Unemployment is going to go through the roof as we all know.

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[0:00] the Fed's forcing rates down to three or four. That means buyers of the US debt today are going to get paid back in money that's worth a lot less than they're paying for it today. That feeds the hard asset trade.

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[18:57] I think it's going to be very very hard for rates to go up from here. And so I think rates are going to be capped at this four or 5% max level for a long time and likely be suppressed lower

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[0:00] I think the next year and a half you're going to have new highs and recent new lows in the market both.

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[18:32] Well, I I would be surprised if silver didn't come down to between 50 and $60.

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[18:51] I'd be surprised if gold, you know, didn't come back to the low 4,000s

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[2:52] I think we do here at Reventure, Adam. I mean, we have downward forecasts for about half of the US housing market in 2026 based on current data, based on the current data and inventory and days on market. That's not really yet factoring in this recent sales report. And if this demand continues to trend negatively uh like we expected to over the next couple months, I think we're going to probably have to revise down our forecasts in quite a few different states and cities.

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[4:51] I think probably by the middle to the end of 2026, Reenture might have some buy signals in markets like Austin, uh potentially some markets in Florida where the values have really gone down a lot already.

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[4:28] with that in mind I think 6,000 is within reach in the next 12 months but it does obviously depend as well how deep the correction is going to be.

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[34:12] if we talk again a couple of years from now, I would imagine that we're seeing uh oil trading at least up into the 80s, perhaps in the '90s.

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[30:06] I'll be very very surprised if gold gets below 4,000. Okay that that that's my view

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[32:14] I think it's probably closer to 50,000. So, I will be looking to take profit on my short Bitcoin position probably around 55.

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[40:14] sell NASDAQ. Okay. I'm long NAS I'm short NASDAQ

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[40:17] long Nifty50. I love the India story. I think India is an amazing story. It's the fastest growing economy in the world.

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[6:17] as a result, the long end of the curve is, you know, seeing JGB yields move higher and higher and higher to react to the fact that the BOJ isn't doing anything

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[11:14] Well, I I think in the past, if you look uh with Chinese New Year, uh the traditionally could sell off and before it, but uh we traditionally rally right at once they reopen. So, I I I think these are just short-term impacts and I don't think it really changes the long-term fundamental of the market.

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[24:12] We see one of the largest ever short positioning in TLT in history. Well, I'd be long fixed income.

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[26:02] I have the long Canadian dollar is very crowded indicating the Canadian dollar has a decent chance of going down which means dollar up.

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[26:09] I have the euro long as very crowded indicating that there's a decent chance that the euro goes down which means dollar up

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[0:04] rates are still going to come down this year

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[3:20] now we are we transitioned around the end of last year where we were saying okay in 2026 that ideal portfolio is is going to transition to an overweight and commodities and commodity related businesses uh to pair with your overweight equity position

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[3:47] The first part of the year we expect to be a Goldilocks environment where inflation is still tamed from those factors we talked about last time. Those three factors are still holding inflation down.

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[4:01] but we do see an economic reaceleration with the fiscal expansion due to the one big beautiful bill and uh in lower rates as well.

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[6:34] I think it's going to be about 670 close to 700 billion from the hyperscalers in 2026 capex. So that's almost like it's approaching 2 and a.5% of GDP.

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[10:09] when I do the numbers I think that mag seven buyback tax could very well be down 80 billion this year

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[15:59] which is out of what we could probably be getting 1.2 trillion of buybacks in total for S&P 500 this year. So, which is growth over last year.

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[31:32] we expected oil to bottom in Q1.

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[33:37] I think we're going to overheat later this year and commodities are hard to disrupt. If you're gonna if AI is going to go exponential, you need to own hardware in commodities

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[1:54] Silver though looks very dangerous to me. Okay. So, I would just say if you've been longing the trade, either take profits or find a way to hedge your position. I do think we are in a secular bull market uh in commodities and in the precious metals complex. So, this is not to say that the bull market is over. It is to say that we are right for a very significant near-term pullback

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[9:24] So, from now till the 2020 elections, I'm probably bullish on gold.

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[21:26] emerging market bonds uh are looking local currency because the US dollar is in a bare market and that's going to continue

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[0:00] We are headed toward a weaker economy. That suggests that the stock market could actually suffer because of earnings weaknesses.

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[8:59] It looks like the unemployment rate will probably tick up a little bit, but it's all it's at very low levels.

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[34:14] My floor is probably around $4,300 right now. That's a lot lower than it is now. Yes, it is. But my ceiling is probably around 5,500.

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[36:15] And March is an active COMX delivery month. The other 432 million ounces mostly will be rolled into May over the course of February. And that will have an up uh that will apply upward pressure on the silver price especially in the last two weeks of of of February.

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[6:56] it wouldn't surprise me if you see yields north of 5% um or more.

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[9:31] I expect China, the Chinese stock market and historically haven't been a fan of Chinese equities. I think that's going to outperform the the US uh again in uh in in 26.

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[11:40] do I see the dollar lower? Yeah, I do.

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[5:56] I think oil prices are headed up.

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[5:52] I think inflation is sticky and probably heading up.

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[31:11] I think small caps will outperform large caps. But it's not so much because I'm bullish on small caps. It's because I think large caps are going to do worse. Small caps might be flat and large caps are going to go down. So I think small caps will will outperform large caps.

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[0:04] Copper's going to do what silver just did, but it's not done it yet. It's just starting.

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[0:16] Bitcoin's going to go into a Bitcoin winter for I can't tell you how long, but nonetheless, here we are. It's finally done it. We're finally doing it.

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[23:16] I think it's incredibly unlikely that Bitcoin will outperform.

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[31:34] And then in I 18 months, two years, oil's going to go mental.

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[33:14] I think the NASDAQ is going to is in a boom and probably the early stages of a bubble, but it isn't in the bubble. Yeah. And it will do its bubbly thing sometime in the next 18 months to two years. And when it does, it'll go up like a rocket.

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[17:47] my estimate is that 5% sustained real GDP growth is optimistic. Uh I I'd pick a lower um figure than that.

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[22:16] if you have me estimate our interest rates going to go structurally up over the next say 10 years I would say probably not. Uh my base case would be choppy sideways for quite a while.

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[36:24] I think it's probably, you know, if you if you check in two years from now, it's probably higher than it is now.

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[10:41] I think that that could be a good way for him to um for worse to come into office if indeed Powell does stand pat uh through the end of his term.

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[0:00] 2026 is the year of the shakeout. There will be places to hide. It's just they'll be fairly defensive in nature.

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[6:18] potential chair WH if he's confirmed um will not necessarily be battling inflation, but battling its its evil stepsister, disinflation.

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[4:50] So a year from now, gold is going to be more expensive than it is right now. The same thing for silver.

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[5:27] Gold and silver breaking out is a similar warning that the sovereign debt and dollar crisis are going to hit and they might hit even this year, but I would say either this year or or next year.

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[23:19] I'm very bullish on energy right now and agricultural commodities. I think they're going to move. I think gold and silver are just leading the way.

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[23:19] I'm very bullish on energy right now and agricultural commodities. I think they're going to move. I think gold and silver are just leading the way.

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[23:26] But it's, you know, it's it's not just precious metals. It's industrial metals, right? It it's this is going to be a commodity boom.

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[23:36] I think the emerging markets are going to be the big winners. The brick countries are going to be a lot more uh prosperous when they no longer, you know, have the burden of supporting the US.

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[27:36] I think people are going to start throwing in the towel on Bitcoin this year. I think you're going to see an onslaught of selling coming out of the ETFs.

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[0:00] Our assessment of this move in silver in particular is that it's going to a new reality. I think silver's going into several hundred dollar, may even go as high as 500. And I think it will do it by summer this year.

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[32:52] Last three months we've been arguing it's got to continue up though. Get above 7,000 which it did today but probably even more probably at least get into February before it decides to roll over again. But we think it's a broad topping process of major proportions. is going into a massive bare market

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[0:00] We're nearing a climactic end to this and uh the system may not make it that far because of this uh rush to just get rid of the money

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[9:58] And believe me, there's going to be another zero in our lifetime. And and and that will be tenfold. So you say, "Well, it can't be 10fold. That's impossible." But it did it. It went from 20 to 200 to 2,000. But here we are at $2,000. And it could be now what what I'm saying. It could be 20,000.

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[15:34] I think it may quit being effective enough where it might as well be disbanded because uh because if our dollar quits working either be or the or they send we send less money to them something's going to happen. But I think it's going to be uh uh the destruction uh you know you know of the dollar that will then translate into the ineffectiveness of NATO

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[7:57] when we do correct, this 4,300 likely becomes your next base point, right? That's where you're going to hold on to the major gains most likely

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[14:02] I still think it's going to 10,000. The question is in what year?

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[25:54] this to me is like likely going to be a continued big rally here to the upside. But great breakout on oil. I'm a big bull on oil

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[33:51] But if we're looking at the price of gold secularly or the price of silver secularly, the miners are going to rip. But again, know your entry, know your exit.

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[23:38] I think the oil price is going to 85 or 90.

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[24:00] I'm buying uh what I think is a company five years ago, five years from now, that will be worth two to three times what it's worth today

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[4:59] we should expect air strikes either this weekend or very soon afterwards.

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[13:11] So one major conflict that we will see in 2026 that will surprise people is the increasing belligerence between China and Japan

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[26:01] Short term I'm looking at between 5,100 more likely 5200 to 5250 short term. I'm talking about before the end of this quarter.

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[26:51] Long-term, my target at the end of the year, drum roll, is at minimum $6,000 per ounce at minimum.

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[28:16] Short-term. Again, my short-term target is about $115.

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[29:54] In terms of my endofear target, the way we've seen it explode, I'm looking for 160 to 180 by the end of 2026.

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[8:05] MAG 7 would underperform as the carry trade unwound.

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[10:39] I don't think we're going to get that pronounced of a draw down or average draw down this year because you do have uh a level of fiscal stimulus coming through in the form of tax returns jumping 40 50% uh you know 50 some odd billion dollars going in consumer's pockets and you are in an easing cycle

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[20:54] the weak dollar is going to be a theme for the next two years.

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[24:11] sometime between now and then, um, you're going to have an opportunity to buy these businesses at better prices, much better prices. We think probably towards the fall of this year

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[24:26] We're strong through April, very weak into the election, recovery year end.

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[17:28] when I bought it at 135, I underwrote it for $300 based on free cash flow and deliveries over the next five years.

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[8:50] should see, you know, sec- um sec- you consecutive outperformance quarter over quarter moving through '26.

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[12:50] if we can spend 2026 in GDP growth over two maybe three.

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[20:30] I think we're going to see a lot of weakness in the job market because AI is taking jobs and I don't think CEOs want to fess up to that.

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[25:22] I think semi capex has to accelerate and I think you'll see that. I think wafer starts will accelerate

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[28:11] I think natural gas in this country um probably has a pretty good outlook.

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[3:47] So the markets are likely to gap lower, potentially even lower from today. And I think we could see bargain hunters step back in and buy things back up. So again, it's a news-driven move. I you can't really trust news-driven moves. And um same same with price gaps. The gap in prices should rebound. So, that's what I'm expecting to happen uh probably Tuesday and Wednesday as the market stabilizes and recovers from this little news-driven bout of selling.

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[14:34] Now, it's not a whole lot of upside from where it is right now. It's about um as of today, you and I are speaking, it's about 4 and a.5% to the upside. So, uh, that's 7,225

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[7:17] I think metals are probably going to be lower than where they are. I think stocks are going to be sharply lower.

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[7:34] I think we're getting closer and closer, like weeks potentially from a major market top.

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[7:38] I think we're also potentially just a couple weeks potentially from a precious metals uh top

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[8:22] I think the dollar could actually hold its value because I think we could see a lot of other currencies. I think we see a lot of other commodities and equities markets sell off as well.

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[20:56] So if we were to just take a look at this last big consolidation in silver we take the low we move up to this standout reversal this this pivot high and we come back down to this low it's going to give us our two levels that we always follow or that I always follow. Those two levels are the 618. That's the 61 um% extension. It's called the golden ratio, the Fibonacci golden ratio. If you move to that level and price has a little bit of a hiccup, which it has, we almost always go up and see price hit the one level, which is 100% measured move. And so that is at the 106. So that is what I'm expecting to hit most likely this week

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[34:57] It probably bring us down into 65 $60,000 per Bitcoin based on this bare flag.

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[32:43] I don't think this loosening will allow the Fed to get back the genie of inflation back in the bottle and get down to the target of 2%. I think that's the real problem and that's going to be a big problem for Trump

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[39:39] with all this pressure Trump is putting on them, the Fed has pivoted towards loosening. And that means that the stock market bubble will probably stay with us.

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[38:43] that's good for hard commodities. So, keeps a secular bull market going in gold, silver, copper, platinum

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[4:45] it implies that yes we could see a pullback uh in the S&P 500 like we did today because the top 41 uh uh AI related stocks comprise 47% of the S&P. So you do have this huge concentration and if that sector gets weak that becomes problematic for the S&P

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[5:47] I think the Russell 2000 is going to continue to work its way higher.

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[12:06] the technical underpinnings right now suggest decline should be somewhere between 3 and 7%.

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[20:48] I think housing prices are in fact going to be coming down uh slowly but surely that will erode the confidence in the spending habits

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[13:16] And in the first half of the year, we have inflation dropping towards 2.25%. the street's still at like three, you know, for the second quarter. That's way too high.

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[15:24] we're higher than Wall Street on real GDP growth. You know we're at 3% for year-over-year for the upcoming quarter. That's another acceleration.

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[37:05] is our biggest uh incremental US equity allocation last in December to get set up for this year was the Russell 2000. So we like the Russell 2000. We also like micro caps. IWC is the ticker for that. We much prefer that than the S&P.

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[13:01] 5,000 is the big psychological level in gold. I I do expect gold to to to take 5,000 um probably in the first half of this year of a high price of 5,400, which basically is a 30% yearon-year um gain.

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[13:39] basically expect gold to to average 4500 this year

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[17:07] I do see silver reaching 90 probably averaging 65. Um that high price is a is a 26% yearon-year increase.

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[0:00] So, silver hitting $100 next year, would that surprise you? >> No. In fact, I expect it to happen.

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[0:11] we're on the edge of a massive depression. The most basic reason for it is the debasement of the dollar.

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[20:15] no matter what the Fed does in the short run, long-term interest rates are headed up back to the levels that they were in the early 1980s, which most people have forgotten, even the US government was paying 15, 16, 17% for for to sell tea bills. U back in the early 1980s, uh we're headed back there just because of the debasement of the currency.

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[20:46] I think in the next three or four years, it's reasonable that we're going to see even official numbers show inflation's running at 7 8 10% maybe more.

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[25:45] It's going to fall apart because because all these governments in Europe like the they're all bankrupt anyway. So, this is a shell game.

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[29:56] I think they're all going higher. They're all really cheap right now, incidentally. They're really cheap.

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[1:00] I would expect and I would not be surprised to see gold touch 6,000 at some point during the year of uh of 2026.

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[1:06] I wouldn't be surprised to see silver hit over 80.

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