[28:03] We could either consolidate or have a a larger correction, maybe down to the 50-day moving average as a as a as a target. So, I'd be a little bit cautious here with exposures. We're still short-term on a sell signal.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[13:16] my takeaway is is that the Fed's probably not going to hike in September. Could they hike by the end of the year? Absolutely.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[7:36] eventually at some point in the next year or two the data center construction will end. We will have built out most of the data centers. Most of that stuff will end. And then you turn into the re revenue generation side of the data centers.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[9:11] when we start to see that switch then we'll switch our holdings in our portfolios more towards the hyperscalers and and you know the guys you know the Microsofts, the Amazons, the Googles, the guys that are benefiting from the actual data center revenue. That's where you want to have your money invested then.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[2:19] I don't think it's going to a quarter of a million this time round um in a hurry by Christmas like someone was saying all that nonsense. I think it will go to 40 to 50,000 before it goes up. and it's a four-year cycle and we're only halfway through that fouryear cycle and it's it will likely pull back.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[37:44] We're in the bottom of a bubble. So ride the bubble. Try to get out before the bust... I think two years is is kind of where we're at. But, you know, when the prices start to go vertical and everybody's saying what a genius they are, I'll be saying get out, but we're not there yet. Not that for a long time.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[4:34] it'd be kind of a surprise if they were to hike in September.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[17:17] When we think about the 10-year Treasury, for example, we think it's probably going to hold uh in this four and a quarter to four and three/4er percent range. We're kind of at the high end of that range right now. Uh if the Fed hikes or it looks like they're going to hike, maybe there's some upside, but we think 5%'s probably kind of the cap there

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[17:42] for now, uh, with more of the hawkish bias, sounds like a a flattening might might be more of a short-term expectation.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[23:06] our House view is that inflation's expected to stay elevated for the next, you know, handful of months and then ultimately decline um in early 2027. uh but expectations from my my colleagues in the Schwab Center for Financial Research are still for it to hold above 2% for the next handful of quarters

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[26:24] So I'm expecting more and more issuance over the next few years.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[7:25] I think it will say probably one uh or um on a on a hawkish side, maybe two uh policy rate increases by the end of this year. Probably one, I would say.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[18:57] the path is to head to, you know, 120% of debt held by the public, or 150% of debt held by the public

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[16:27] you've got 6% deficits as far as I can see. It wouldn't be so bad the level of debt that we're at, but there seems to be no concern at all in the political system to curb those deficits

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[4:10] the committee is already saying that at the end of this year the best they're going to be able to do on core PC inflation is something very close to 3% and that's going to be very similar to where it's been in 2023 in December, in 2024 in December, 2025 in December.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[4:03] Well, possibly before the end of the year, but sooner than later, meaning if it's it could very well be before the end of the year, but if it's mid-2027, it doesn't matter that much. It's coming soon. It's not a 5-year forecast in other words. I mean, gold always goes up. So, if you have a long enough timeline, you can get it right. But, this is something I expect in a relatively short period of time. So, yeah, possibly before the end of the year, but but early next year if not.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[13:04] He's going to raise interest rates, but not in September. Uh he made that very clear. They're certainly not going to do it. They say they're not political. That's nonsense. They're highly political. He's not going to raise interest rates before the midterm elections.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[15:57] but they're probably going to raise rates in November. So, they'll adjust they adjust the prices today. They don't wait until November.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[0:00] I think my price, you know, I'm I'm looking at Bitcoin crossing 200K in, you know, the next, you know, let's call it 18 months.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[28:36] I think you could see, you know, 20 25 publicly traded crypto companies, you know, in the next 18 months.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[23:00] the strong move um of gold from 2,000 to over 5,000 tells me that investors are starting to begin to understand that gold needs to be revalued. Gold needs to be reintroduced into the system.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[28:00] if you look at the valuations, the magnificent seven stocks are still valued I think 10 times higher than uh the average uh valuation of let's say Newman and Bareric. The last time I checked New and Barrack still have pees of around 1011 which is dirt cheap. uh the the the the old um valuation for gold miners let's say 15 years ago was always a P of 25

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[28:00] when the collapse phase so stock exchanges are going down 50 60 70% which could well happen in the next 5 to 10 years.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[35:00] We've been very large investors in nextgen energy. We still own them. It's the largest uranium uh discovery in the last few decades. It will be a mine in the next five to six years. It will be um responsible for the production of 20% of world uranium production worldwide.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[6:32] I'm pretty sure that Anthropic's revenue story will be good through June. And that's because sometime around late June, July, token maxing, which is where people were just spending whatever they what they had no sensitivity to spending. They just spent money like crazy on tokens. Token maxing ended. And now people are a lot more self-conscious. So, I actually think the third and fourth quarters are going to be much more interesting for Anthropic and Open AI than the first half of the year.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[11:40] I think that if if First of all, I OpenTable I think is in trouble. I think the revenue growth has obviously slowed dramatically. It better start reaccelerating soon. And um, if what what I was talking before about token maxing, I think it's going to be harder for these guys to raise capital. I could be wrong. That's what I think.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[19:42] I think the big risk to the market, which is huge, is Anthropic and Open AI, but that risk could be if it if I'm right, it could materialize a year from now.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[28:28] the banking system in the United States, I don't think it's ever been this safe in anyone's lifetime.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[20:12] we do expect to see investors continuing to buy historically large amounts of gold not just for the next 2 years, but uh we we we take our projections about 10 years. We for the foreseeable future, we see investors and central banks adding to their gold reserves.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[2:21] The House is a foregone conclusion. There's the midterm curse. It almost always is an anti-incumbent election. Republicans only have a two seat majority. Democrats are leading by 5 percentage points in the generic polling. And the president has a net negative 16% approval rating... we're obviously going to see the House turn. Probably 20 or 40 seats will shift in favor of the Democrats.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[3:18] I would go uh and I have been saying all year that this is going to go in favor of Democrats... when we look at the trends, particularly those those statistics I mentioned earlier, how unhappy Americans are with the uh with inflation, with the incumbent government, uh with inequality, I think Democrats will pull it off... by the time we get to November 3rd, I think they will uh outperform and end up controlling the Senate to the surprise of the pundits.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[18:44] that also means that you're talking about not implementing those auto tariffs, which notice that he put those on January 1st after the midterm, and he probably won't actually do them.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[9:30] unemployment rate is so low that it probably won't go much lower. So, if we're thinking about 2028 and beyond, you're probably going to have unemployment coming up and you're also going to have this sticky inflation.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[1:45] I think we're still very much in the first chapters of a gold bull market. And as we've said many times, those those bull markets have shakeouts and they have volatility. They have intervention. They have politics, geopolitics, and flatout price fixing. But the the secular direction north and up and to the right for gold and silver, uh, our opinion hasn't changed at all. I think we're still very much in the early stages of an epic run, a generational run.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[9:02] I mean, this is generational wealth will be made in the right mining sector, in the right mining names and the right mining plays.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[10:51] the multiples in equities will be far higher than the multiples in just the gold spot price.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[33:03] there's so much more room for downside risk in this overvalued market than there is upside risk

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[16:35] The the US dollar, which is such a key part of US hedgeimonyy geopolitically uh and financially and militarily, all of those things are changing. Again, it's not the end of Rome or the end of the Dutch or the end of the British empires, but in terms of they still exist, but they're no longer hegemonic. And the same is going to happen to the US. It's happening right now

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[35:20] All are screaming indicators that gold is going to play a much bigger role three two five 10 years from now. I don't know the day or the week that gold spikes to an all-time high. I don't have to know that. just know its direction is north

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[30:20] gold is objectively replacing the US Treasury as a global reserve collateral as a as a central bank asset and and as a better net trade settlement among countries that don't trust each other's currencies but do like to trust gold.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[26:45] our inflation rate to be to be generous, to be conservative, is at least 10% a year. That means anyone listening to this, whatever their wealth, whatever their sophistication, whatever their view on gold, you're losing 10% to the invisible theft of inflation as you're sitting here every year.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[1:19] Our expectation was that the gold price would be in the 4,800 to 5,000 range by the end of this year. So our expectation has been that the gold price would be rising from from the end of August into the end of uh of 2026.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[2:30] we think that there could be a pullback in early September

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[17:38] We're expecting inflation to stay persistently above 3%, possibly move up toward four or 5% on on an ongoing basis at least for the next several quarters.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[31:54] I'm expecting shorter term uh more upside pressure and then longer term sideways to lower pressure. I think that you know prices around $86 a barrel uh are slightly elevated over what I might consider a market clearing price.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[6:31] you're pumping twice as much money into the economy. you're obviously very much concerned about economic weakness over the next few months going into the midterm election.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[2:50] if you look at gold at 4,600, it's still nine You know, it's still basically 900, almost a thousand dollars down from the high. So, uh if you want to look at it that way, it's still 18 or 20% off the high in January. And I think if they'll think about it long the You have to think about gold long term. If you'll think about it over the next uh say 1 and 1/2 or 2 years, you know, and let's say you got an objective of gold of 7 or 8,000, then it doesn't doesn't feel very high.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[9:17] Our theory is is that rates will be generally higher the next 10 years by pretty good margin over what they were the last 10 years. So, let's say that we think uh inflation will run between three and four over time. And there may be periods when it's two and a half. I understand that, but I'm saying over time, if it runs between three and four

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[9:17] rates will be generally higher the next 10 years by pretty good margin over what they were the last 10 years.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[27:39] all of the ingredients are sort of in place for a very high extended market in the US... whether it breaks in early '27 or you have to go another year or two, that's that's beyond me. Uh but but I will say this, once you get it there, that's when you have to take action in your portfolio

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[23:45] when we say in your portfolio that you need you need some commodity base cuz we feel like commodities will do better the next 10 years

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[0:00] my target it was lifted to 8,000 from 7,300. I do see that by end of year market should end the year on a positive note. I just don't think it's going to be an easy uh two or three months.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[3:16] where we go next I think is it's going to prove a little bit choppy between now in the midterms. It it shouldn't be a straight shot continued push higher in the next few months.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[4:02] I don't suspect that tech is going to be probably the best sector over the next couple months.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[4:13] crude oil to me looks like we're going to continue this little bounce that we started in the month of July up higher into probably mid-September early October which is going to be a source of probable discomfort for the markets.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[5:23] my biggest risks over the next few months are that yields on the long end still are likely going to rise and also that crude oil also can probably rise.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[6:03] I think we're entering a time when specifically in September, we're likely going to get some volatility and uh we can speak about that in more detail.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[27:35] the dollar should be headed to the downside over the next year. And if we can keep growth and we can keep interest rates from going up too high, then that absolutely will be beneficial, I think, to earnings.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[27:19] even if we bounce after the yen gets to say 151 I don't sense it'll get much higher versus the dollar. So I I do sense that dollar yen's move will prove shortlived for their own reasons of say gradualism.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[37:29] I think that uh you know that should carry us that should carry us higher in the markets in general over the next couple years even if it's a it's a choppy time in 2026.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[36:34] eventually probably come the third quarter 2028, we'll reach sort of a tipping point where uh you know some of the cycles I look at start to turn down into like 2030.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[16:26] yields likely cannot get too far above 475 on the 10-year uh without causing a very noticeable trigger where, you know, the Treasury will come in and start to buy massive amounts of uh different kinds of securities

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[5:01] personally, I'm bullish on these metals, doesn't mean you should be because what I'm saying, and I mean this very seriously, it depends on on your situation.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[9:24] all this cash now isn't going to increase supply and that's I think why this gold and silver story and the miners has a has longer legs than most people think. It'll be cyclical. It'll be pretty volatile but fundamentally it just takes a really really really long period of time to get gold and silver mines up and running

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[10:50] if you ask me what I thought had the higher chance of a higher return, it would be silver.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[12:06] I think most of us think that Walsh is not going to raise rates. He's probably going to hold them steady when he should raise them and then at some point he's going to look for a place where he can actually cut them because that's the playbook, right?

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[31:50] shipping rates are really high. I think they're going to stay high and therefore it looks pretty appealing to me.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[23:13] getting there and on the lunar surface by 2028 to be able to start the process of living and working there and kind of getting the best spots.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[17:04] As we go from $60 billion a year of defense spend today to $155 billion a year in 2035, that's huge. Like $100 billion dollars year more every single year in defense.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[39:06] commercial trips to the Moon could become a reality within the next decade.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[27:34] There will be a mining type activity on the moon, but over time, it may be maybe 20 years down the road or so, um it'll be applicable for asteroids, for example.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[6:47] And that was all investors needed to hear to bid the gold price up from $4,000 to $4,800.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[15:50] in my life, whenever I see a momentum-driven chart, uh and I'm beginning to see it in gold now, I get concerned uh for the very very near very near term.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[7:49] I would suggest that the deterioration of the purchasing power of the US dollar is proceeding along at 8 or 9% per annum compounded.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[3:43] I would not be surprised within the next 6 weeks if we hit over 5% in the 10-year notes because of this intervention.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[6:19] The interest rates are going much higher and that means that the bond futures are going much lower and the way to play that market in my opinion is to sell the futures indicating that you believe that high interest rates are coming cuz I do.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[11:19] I think we're just in the beginning of that 40 to 60% sell-off that I'm looking for. And I think that we'll see some acceleration once we get out of this next 2-week cycle and after Labor Day, I think we'll see some some acceleration to the downside.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[13:32] I think silver's probably got the biggest. We didn't talk about that yet... I think you'll start to see the flow of money coming in there. We're seeing it kick off with gold, but I think the the lesser buyers and the the the poor man's gold, they'll start participating and start to step into silver here.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[5:34] I think that they're going to continue to go higher. I wouldn't jump to chase here. If I wasn't in, I'd wait. There'll be a pullback.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[14:01] it could rally another 10,000 before pulling back. It will have a pullback at some point, but we are now in the midst of the biggest rally in three years.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[27:12] I would venture to talk that the next time you and I talk, it'll be it's It may not be there when we talk the next time, but at some point between now and then it'll be four or five thousand dollars cheaper than it is right now.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[17:45] I would not be surprised at all if we get back into the '60s or mid-'50s before year's over.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[22:05] I would say to you that it would not surprise me if if December oil, when it goes to comes to contract, is below is not below $70 a barrel.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[8:27] what the Fed is doing here is is going to end up hurting the average consumer because it's going to make inflation spike higher

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[12:31] we've seen cattle has dropped about 20% from its highs. And I think there's still a lot of room to the downside.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[13:38] I think you're going to see him overly hawkish. This is my prediction, right? And because it's meaningless. He can talk a big game because David, they need to be hawkish so that the longer end of the curve that people believe you could control inflation because that's what's going to move out on the longer end. So you're really in this catch 22 here. and then when they have the meeting in mid-September he won't raise rates.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[18:06] It could easily hit 5%. You know, could be for 20 minutes, it could be for 20 days.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[30:14] Nvidia reports Wednesday. Um, they'll beat the number. They'll guide up. I get that. But it's traded down the last four quarters and they've beaten, right? And that's just expectations running up into I'm not going to try to predict it.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[0:07] I would give the bubble in AI less than a year to go and that's why I think pickle ball courts is a fairly sensible idea of how a lot of these data centers will end up being used.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[21:54] the revenue from serious uses w which may be sustained over time looks like about 1/5 of the cost levels that these firms are caught up in. So I expect massive losses to come out of that and when the losses start to become obvious that's when people will panic and get out of the out of the bonds that are involved and so those you know the prices of the bonds will fall and the yields will rise for the the very wrong reasons of a bursting bubble.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[21:50] historically the right move for Bitcoin is to accumulate it throughout the second half of the midterm year and just prepare yourself ideally for a bull run, getting us out into 2027 and and 2028. So, that's that would be what I would focus on over the next few months.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[25:31] I think the the odds of 57k being the low after this rally are significantly higher. And I I would argue that if if we get above the 50we moving average on a couple of weekly closes, then I think you're looking at least at a 50% probability uh that the low is in.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[26:15] if if we're just rejected here at around like 80 81k, then there's still a chance that we go lower and and and you know, search out the realized price uh which is in the lower 50s

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[29:32] if if whale activity does not increase in the short term, I I think that could, you know, that could certainly be the case for for for Bitcoin getting at least one more scare in Q4, at which point hopefully we would see whale activity pick up.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[18:42] arguably maybe we'll have one again at the end of 2026. But the point is is if if we do get a correction in the stock market near the end of 2026

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[23:26] I think the energy sector uh still has has room to run for a while. Um I mean, it might get caught up in a in a correction in the S&P, but I I think that would be relatively shortlived.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[23:36] Gold I I would still remain long-term bullish on. If you do get a little pop up in the dollar in the short term, it might lead to risk assets like Bitcoin and gold and stock market to get a pullback. But for gold, you know, I think there would be a really strong case to be made for a higher low rather than a lower low

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[16:43] I would assume that the Bank of Japan is also likely going to raise rates. probably Bank of Japan's probably going to raise rates in September and they might even raise rates twice uh this year

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[16:38] My guess is that the the Fed will raise rates later this year.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[11:26] in order to get a full-blown alt season as a lot of people would like, it would actually likely require a parabolic Bitcoin rally first. Okay? So it would be a euphoric Bitcoin that's going, you know, far beyond all-time highs that would then, you know, precipitate the idea of an altcoin season.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[11:56] I would not expect this to be a massive rotation into altcoins away from Bitcoin. And if if there is any type of rotation, I think it would be temporary

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[2:41] I think we're going into a bull market. In fact, my thesis is that we're going into a bull market.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[31:33] The last high was 125,000, which is about 80% from here. Um, so I mean, you know, where do you go from there? 150, $200,000.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[26:30] I think there's a very very very good chance but I do want to highlight that we have had periods in the bare market where in 20 days Bitcoin went up 42%

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[31:43] Bitcoin is the least exciting instrument in the next cycle because I think that the in the previous cycles, it was all about getting acceptance and Bitcoin was the king, etc., etc., But now you have actual protocols in crypto that are making a lot of money

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[37:24] I wouldn't be surprised if we went back up to 61 and maybe even 62.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[14:19] I personally believe that it will pass because a lot of people are incentivized to make sure it passes and because there'll be a lot of negotiations as they normally are in US politics before the time and ultimately it could get passed.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[18:40] If you're a Bitcoin holder, it's the best news. If you're a gold holder, if you're a silver holder, it's the best news you've ever heard because they ain't going to retreat. And because they ain't going to retreat, the prices are just going to continue to go up.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[13:02] so the next 25 basis points could be either direction. The next 50 are going to be down. In other words, they can't raise much. They could raise a little, but they can't raise much um because they cause too much havoc.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[22:11] Yeah, I mean you know people you know there was quite a bit of chatter for a while that the dollar was strong and it was only relatively strong. It was really kind of nowhere. The dollar index was 100. Now what is it 98 change? Yeah. 98 99. I mean, it's it's yeah, it'll be under it'll be under somewhat pressure

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[7:28] That that AI paper is not high quality debt. That AI paper is garbage... all of this AI spend, which has got not a shot of adequate return on investment to to pay the debt back or or make any kind of an adequate return. I mean, that that stuff could blow up.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[19:38] yeah, at today's pace, but in three years, it's probably going to be three or four trillion a year.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[29:37] next year we're going to start to see those earnings estimates that that sorry that growth rate of earnings start to slow down. So a lot of the impetus... the rate of change will slow and that should start to slow down the rate of change in earnings

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[27:37] retailers like Walmart are certainly starting to show that the consumer is coming under pressure... the retail consumer is starting to come under pressure. I I would tweak that a little bit. I I think the retail consumer has been under a fair amount of pressure for a while. I think that what you're talking to is it's showing that they're really starting to to crack.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[5:44] we're going to see a rapid appreciation in the valuation of gold miners and silver miners versus gold. A catch-up back to old reality. And even if this rally only carries to the bottom end of what might have been what was the prior range that existed 1980, 1990, 2008, that period. Then you're going to double or more where this spread is right now.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[6:32] Gold goes up X amount, they go up 2X, okay? But there's another implication here.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[7:23] it's also telling you you're about to have a dramatic price advance in the monetary metals themselves, with the miners vastly outperforming, of course.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[24:44] So, if gold you merely match the prior bull markets, it'd be 8,000 to 9,000. Merely matching those bull markets. With these conditions out there, it wouldn't have shocked me to see gold at 10,000 to 20,000.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[0:19] silver could go up to 500 bucks or so, you know, it wouldn't shock me. Silver is the most explosive market I can think of right now in terms of upside potential.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[13:28] While everybody's preoccupied with the semiconductors and AI stocks as the be-all and end-all. And ultimately, they'll lead the downside at some point because they were leaders in the last several years on the upside. They will invert and go the other way.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[9:44] the semiconductors and AI stocks as the be-all and end-all. Uh I think they've seen their high, by the way.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[13:59] Technically, they are at levels this week that if we close out today about where we are now, they break through some intermediate momentum structures... You're well below that right now. They're going to break it this week, the banks.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[16:22] The S&P and the NASDAQ 100 cannot afford basically about an 8 to 10% drop from where they closed last week. If they do, they will be blowing annual momentum trend structures. Very long-term momentum trends... You break that floor, it's over. Bear market commences.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[12:36] I'm bearish on US government bonds, but I know that they'll come in with all the fire hoses they've got to save that beast.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[38:38] I think it's a place to be. The stock sectors related to the commodities that we see in the complex. Uh but, I would emphasize right now on a shorter-term basis, meaning over the next several quarters, I think gold and silver will make you drop your jaw.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[37:44] I don't think it's a short-term thing. I think it's something you should think in terms of a couple years at least. Uh it's a repricing of an asset category.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[34:47] broadly speaking, I think it's a place to be over the next year or two, especially.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[40:02] Silver has vastly underperformed. And, that's one of the reasons I think you're going to see the slingshot effect in silver. And, the miners as well.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[8:27] the price direction of the next 3 to 5 to 10 years where gold is going to 15 20,000 easily.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[0:00] the stock market's going to find a top within the next quarter. Uh and that's not not going to be just an ordinary market top. It's not just going to be like this is going to be a big one.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[2:35] you're going to see that bonds are going to rip. You're going to see also that the stock market is going to find a top within the next quarter

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[19:00] I don't see any reason why it would be a for for the NASDAQ any less than what we saw in the com days... I think you're going to see something in the NASDAQ similar to the to what we saw in um in 200 uh and one 2000 to 2001 because it's um there is really no reason why we would see anything less than this and the and yeah also technical analysis suggests that that's kind of the magnitude that we should see.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[20:57] I think the uh situation is not just 2000... I think 2000 uh the tech bubble burst will be the appetizer for what we what we're going to see... I think the opening of what we saw in 2000 was a straight move down. I think it was four weeks and the stock market was down. NASDAQ was down 30% or something. Maybe be mistaken, but I think it was something like that. And I think this this could repeat

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[24:45] I think it's going to be bad. I think you're going to see something in the NASDAQ similar to the to what we saw in um in 200 uh and one 2000 to 2001... I think it can last for you know 3 years or something like that. It's you can easily see it like that.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[37:45] It actually looks like we could see a price of a around you know 25,000 easily $30,000 per per ounce when we are at the bottom of this crisis

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[37:28] the gold is going to outperform over the next many uh not say decades but many years at least

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[5:06] gold is rallying up into resistance. It's had a very nice move this week, but it was based on news. And that is that always scares me when you have a strong bounce and everybody becomes very bullish and excited. We're seeing people pile into gold miners like like it's going out of style. Everybody's jumping into the leverage plays around here thinking things have turned around and maybe they have, but right now to me gold is is if it has put in a bottom, it still has more work to do.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[10:56] It's a series of bare flags. A drop, a pause, a drop, a pause, a drop. This is another pause. It's just another rally within a downtrend.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[27:44] I'm waiting to see what happens after tomorrow, after the 21st, if that 3-day typical kind of emotional stampede into an asset class runs out of steam and we start to see it roll over next week or if it's going to hold its ground and and push up.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[16:55] this monthly chart, you know, is is pointing to an 8% move. That's what is showing. and it's starting to break out of this huge pattern. Now, obviously, if it goes there, everything blows up.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[19:04] if I was a bond trader, like especially like trading bonds themselves, like TLT, I I think we're going to continue to see see them weaken. I think bonds are going to be struggling. I think rates are going to keep creeping up.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[20:50] just based on the most recent over the last month price action, it is pointing to roughly like 8,100 8,200 for the S&P 500, which is a a pretty decent move from where we are. That's about a 6% move.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[21:19] it shows where this big pattern is actually pointing to. So, it is saying we get to about 8,500, which from where we are right now, that's about a a 10 or so percent move. And that's a really nice looking chart pattern. This is a big move up. It's consolidated in a very healthy manner. Now it's breaking out.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[21:44] the NASDAQ is is similar, not quite the same, but it does have a large bull flag, and it is pointing to about an 18 20% move to the upside still.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[19:20] I think eventually we're going to see the AI bubble, you know, this surge come to an end. High interest rates is not good for all this borrowing, all of this stuff uh for the data centers.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[0:00] I'm actually leaning to the view that their next move will be to cut rates uh not to raise rates.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[4:57] I don't think they'll be hiking and then they're going to get stuck ahead of the uh uh the midterm elections. Uh and then you know it's very rare for them to make a move in December when liquidity conditions aren't exactly that flush and everybody's closing their books for the year.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[5:13] I think there's a real opportunity at the front end of the yield curve uh which is still priced uh you know at least for one more hike. I think that's going to come out. The two-year note is actually a very good place to be. two years and three years uh in that part of the curve.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[7:46] I think that the inflation numbers are going to surprise to the downside for the next several months. I think the economy will continue to grow but below potential which is going to put overall downward pressure on aggre aggregate prices.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[5:59] we've had three quarters in a row where real GDP growth has averaged less than 1 and a.5%. And I think that when we get the Q3 data, it's going to be the same, like four straight quarters of one and a half% real GDP growth.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[9:18] Um but at that point you're going to start to see the unemployment rate hook up.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[9:35] I do think my assumption is that they will be in the next several months and quarters be shifting their attention uh back to the labor market. That's why rates and that's when we get a rate cut.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[0:00] I do believe that we are in the midst of what will be seen to be a very very very long wave in gold and silver that we will see new highs uh in both and ultimately I can see gold going to 30 40 $50,000 without a problem.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[23:06] seeing gold go up another 10fold from here it to me is not uh not just um likely but inevitable.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[26:32] when gold goes over 5500 will say ah yes but the fundamentals are better now than it was the last time. Or for silver when silver goes back over 120.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[26:32] when gold goes over 5500 will say ah yes but the fundamentals are better now than it was the last time.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[12:53] Sunshine is a perfect example of a company that can be a $10 billion story because the exploration at Sunshine um is giving tremendous results.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[40:25] When people say gold prices should be much higher, right? It it they absolutely should. Prices are suppressed. When people again tell me, oh, you know, are you concerned about the price going down? I'm not because I know the fundamentals and I know where we're going next.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[34:32] when the system itself starts crumbling, when the dollar starts losing its value even more than it is today, because believe me, we've lost so much just in the last few years.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[11:48] He he does not. I think it goes higher.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[27:46] the fertilizer situation I believe uh is going to continue this bull market into next year uh because farmers are having a difficult time affording fertilizer which means they're going to use less of it which means that there's going to be less nutrients in the soil which means historically that when harvest comes there's going to be less yield which will result in higher crop crisis. So I think that is ahead for us.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[29:57] Yeah, I I do I do think it'll give reason for another hike in prices that as you allude to uh don't get ratcheted back when input prices fall back.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[23:09] I'm actually somewhat worried about the private credit uh refinancing schedule the next couple years. Uh number one, uh at least retail inflows have dried out. And number two, a lot of the loans that were given in the last 3 to 5 years are going to come due over the next couple years.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[30:58] portfolio that I run, I've about a third in commodities, commodity stocks, so I'm already there in terms of this what I believe is a bull run.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[31:23] to my belief that the the dollar uh will ultimately end up lower um doesn't affect my my belief to also own international stocks and international bonds particularly in emerging markets that would benefit from uh a weaker dollar.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[5:30] We're going to have higher inflation. We're going to have uh greater volatility in inflation. The trend in interest rates is going to be higher. And uh we're going to have um uh generally poor economic performance uh in which the standard of living will stagnate

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[5:39] The trend in interest rates is going to be higher. And uh we're going to have um uh generally poor economic performance uh in which the standard of living will stagnate and uh basically a complete reversal of what we saw over the previous three decades from let's say 1990 to 2020.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[37:27] the real rate is going to rise. And the reason it's going to rise, Adam, is because of what we just talked about. that we have this imbalance between the demands for physical capital and the supply of saving. So, it's going to drive the real rate higher. Inflation is going to go higher

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[40:08] the last element which has not been a problem but is the is the risk premium. And and the thing that that I believe is going to change the risk premium is the fact that the interest expense is making it almost impossible from a political standpoint to address the deficit which means that the deficit direction is worse and worse.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[18:09] my outlook is for even sign a greater uh number uh next year and in the years to come and and federal debt is is already approaching 120% of GDP GP and it's it's on its way to 130% of GDP.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[38:46] the potential growth rate is not going to stay at three and a half. It's going to gravitate down toward two or two and a half.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[43:22] the birth rate which is which is already in a major downtrend will become even weaker at the same time that we're aging

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[5:46] We're going to have um uh generally poor economic performance uh in which the standard of living will stagnate and uh basically a complete reversal of what we saw over the previous three decades from let's say 1990 to 2020.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[35:57] I believe will be the case with yesterday's uh intervention by the Treasury Secretary but ultimately they reduce the long-term growth prospects

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

my comparative inventory model suggesting severe price pressures could materialize by November

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[33:04] I don't see anything like that coming in the next uh you know, the next few days or weeks or even months. That's a that's a real problem.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[21:55] Basically, then there's very little chance gold is going to retrace below 3,000 in today's environment is the underlying assumption that you should be making. Correct. You you you would have to assume that from what I just said.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[27:08] typically in a gold cycle in a commodity cycle I should say sorry David in a commodity cycle which can be long commodity cycles tend to be long gold will lead in the beginning and gold will lead in the blowoff top at the end right because it's a monetary metal... but in the middle of that cycle and I think we've just entered the middle of that cycle now. Um other things tend to lead and historically that includes copper... Copper will be one of the leaders in the middle of that cycle outperforming gold.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[29:26] we know what production will be 5 years from now and we simply don't have enough copper. We simply don't have enough copper to meet the demand expectations. It's a higher price.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[8:58] So I'm expecting uh Canada all of a sudden start to stop selling their gold uh that they're manufactur that they're they're producing from gold... What happens when Colombia starts that? They say, "We're not going to we're going to we're buying your gold now and we sell it." The central bank in Colombia, what happens? They say, "We're going to buy it and bank it." ... and so we're going to see a couple of the countries that are in a sweet position like Canada to do that

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[12:56] Copper is making new highs. So, we're we're witnessing supply and demand imbalances... there's a renaissance of copper exploration development in America and in Canada. So I think it's not just gold. I think it's also going to be copper.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[14:38] we have seen this in silver. It goes through the correction and now it's inching back up because sun using this uh for the sun as a source of energy with silver is not going away. But they also need it for military.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[17:24] what we're seeing that the relationship with Japan is to help the Japanese currency because it's continuing to fall. We have to go and help them because they're very much aligned to stop China

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[20:27] You get that silver price going back up into the 70s and the 80s and the months ahead.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[21:23] I don't think we're going to see any governor's descent given the direction of the actual inflation data that have been reported because Kevin Worse would say, "Please justify for me given we have disinflationary winds blowing. Please explain to me why we should be tightening."

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[34:32] I think a it's it's a shoein to say that the House of Representatives is going to change hands, but you could have a lot of economic turmoil emanating from political turmoil if there is a full-blown blue wave on election day in 2026.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[27:21] in the medium-term, David, in the medium-term, we know that the reason companies are pursuing it is to have fewer employees and have the employees that they do have be more efficient in approaching their work. And fewer employees, as you just said, there's a difference between not having a job and being worried about inflation.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[22:16] They would have to go back to the last major low, which was March 2009. That would be a 90% crash for the S&P 500 and 96% for the Nasdaq. That is worse than 1929 to 32.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[22:16] They would have to go back to the last major low, which was March 2009. That would be a 90% crash for the S&P 500 and 96% for the Nasdaq.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[26:03] we could see by year-end stocks down the S&P down I I'm actually predicting 54% back to the last major support and the NASDAQ down 64%. People I mean, that could happen by year-end

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[26:03] we could see by year-end stocks down the S&P down I I'm actually predicting 54% back to the last major support and the NASDAQ down 64%. People I mean, that could happen by year-end

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[16:09] the average house in Ohio going to have to go down 60% versus 34% in the last recession

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[16:25] imagine what high-end real estate does in New York or California, you know, or places like that. Um 70-80%. This has never happened.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[34:52] Gold's only heading down and overvalued at 5,600 top... for gold just to go back to its last low, even closer in 2016, it would be down 60%.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[31:41] my projection, if I'm right and we get a very serious downturn, TLT would literally double in value in just two to three years.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[9:23] I'm telling people today the biggest single trend is that India is just emerging like China did in the early 80s and over the next four decades it will become the next China. It will become even a bit richer than China, and its population is going to keep growing to 1.7 billion from 1.4 today

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[9:44] China is going to shrink from 1.4 today down to 800 million over the next five decades.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[0:00] they would love to see a $100 $120 basically Brent right now that would really like and push the US stock market down 10% that force Trump to basically tackle

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[0:00] they would love to see a $100 $120 basically Brent right now that would really like and push the US stock market down 10%

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[4:46] if they do that, that's bullish oil and that's bearish for the stock market. I think that's probably for me that's a that's a that's a big focus for this week anyway.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[4:46] if they do that, that's bullish oil and that's bearish for the stock market. And I think that's probably for me that's a that's a that's a big focus for this week anyway.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[7:17] there are a lot of people especially non-Americans who think that this is a moment to sell the crap out of the US dollar because they think that you know that this strategic defeat is inevitable and that this is going to be bullish gold and very bearish for the US dollar and then you know it's difficult to disagree with

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[7:17] there are a lot of people especially non-Americans who think that this is a moment to sell the crap out of the US dollar because they think that you know that this strategic defeat is inevitable and that this is going to be bullish gold and very bearish for the US dollar and then you know it's difficult to disagree with

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[19:37] I actually think that this is actually an interesting trade. I think defense might actually do pretty well actually in the next couple of months

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[16:39] between now and the Russian election, which is coming up next month, okay, you're probably going to see the Russians taking another big swath of Ukraine. And then between the election and November, which will be the deadline for fighting conditions still basically allow them to go on. I think they're going to probably make a run for corators in Slovenians.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[20:40] the most important election in Europe next year, of course, is the French presidential election. And right now, my money is on Marin Le Pen

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[21:52] I think in the short term is very very negative for Europe because number one you've got you got the fact that right now I mean last week alone European natural gas price went up 10%... natural gas storage is already inventories at the lowest level I don't know in 10 years and then we're not even winter yet obviously we're going to see what happens there so natural gas prices going up

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[22:51] there is a very good chance of a break up of a real trade war between Europe and China this fall. Right now, they are in they have given each other ultimatum. They started last month basically a three-month final ultimate negotiation basically to see if they can actually find a compromise before they just go down this slippery slope

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[24:31] I'm long oil because I do think I I I I find it difficult to see how this thing is going to end. Okay. And that's just how it is.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[24:55] I think bonds are very very cheap. Like, if I look at five-year yields, I mean, given everything's going on, do I really believe the Fed is going to be hiking rates? I mean, like, so I mean, I don't see any inflation and I think growth is actually slowing. So like I I kind of feel like being loan bonds at least

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[25:14] I'm I'm right now I've been short the Japanese yen over the last two weeks. Ever since they started intervening, I said, 'Well, you know, if Besson wants to buy the Japanese yen, I'm going to go in and sell some.' And so far, it's worked out... I think the yen is doomed.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[24:22] my fundamental view is that I want to I want to short AI you know I'm just not short at this moment but I will be looking for better levels to basically go in there and whack the market

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[31:17] which basically leaves I would say uh the the the the road open for a revisit of 5,000 before year end and then a potentially new record next year because I think the the the move towards gold the the the reason why investors have have been buying into gold for the last last few years has not gone away.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[31:17] and then a potentially new record next year because I think the the the move towards gold the the the reason why investors have have been buying into gold for the last last few years has not gone away.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[30:51] throughout this this process where we gone from expecting rate cuts to rate hikes really have have been have struggled to believe that that the Fed would go towards towards a rate hike. And it seems like at this point at least it's being vindicated somewhat with the Goldman Sachs and others also saying well the market's pricing in too much in terms of rate hikes because we may actually see the next move as being a cut.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[3:23] what we mean by down five is that uh we think that the United States over the next 10 years is going to lose about 5 million barrels a day of production. It's going to go from roughly about 13 million barrels a day to about 8 million barrels a day.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[5:54] we think now Canada is going to go up about 5 million barrels a day and that's a result of um both uh Prime Minister Mark Carney and Premier Daniel Smith agreeing to become the candidate be an energy superpower. and uh uh Premier Smith uh has defined you know what is an energy superpower uh is uh the goal of doubling uh oil and gas production over about 10 years and for your uh listeners to appreciate uh Canada today produces about 5 million barrels a day of of liquids and so it would go from 5 to 10

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[15:58] we think, you know, two or three years out, you're looking at 6 or 7,000.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[27:32] silver probably I think it's still a good buy too. It will it will chase that gold price upward. So you can still buy it.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[40:34] I think they're all under I think they're all under price by the way.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[5:40] we look at the earnings quality the quality of the earnings over the next two years and if we don't feel like that's going to hold up uh then we take profits in something like that.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[21:21] inflation won't be super high, but it'll be one or two points over the interest rate level. And what that will do is just over time, it's a long-term thing. Over time, that will eat away at it.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[26:13] I think that continues. I don't think I don't I think they look at the US like you know what there's a lot of things we don't like about this situation... So, I think that's why they're buying the gold. And to me, that they probably will continue to buy it.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[20:34] near-term, yes. It could be a headwind for gold. That might be what's happening today. Longer term, no, I think that that leads us to a stagflationary path and ultimately not not ultimately, not someday, not 10 years from now, more like what happened after the COVID lockdowns. You know, the coming inflation turned out to be good for gold after all and I I think the setup here is actually quite constructive for gold.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[16:39] they oughtn't to be worried about gold. They should be looking at equities, risk assets. If the so-called risk-free premium spikes, you know, the the case for buying risk assets really goes away. That's that's the bigger trade here. I mean, I'm I'm not dissing gold, but you know, the gold the entire gold sector is a tiny fraction of tech stocks or or anything else of the overall marketplace. So, uh you know, people if people want to worry about this, I think I really think they should be worrying about the stock market rally and and how long it can go on in the face of higher rates.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[29:27] the data is telling us that oil is likely to stay higher for longer, even if percent is right. And I doubt that he is. And that has economic and investment implications that we should take seriously.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[28:10] let's say for the rest of this year, oil remains in the range that it is now, that's a huge problem. Oil doesn't even have to go higher. It just stays where it is now and the knock-on effects economically are huge.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[17:51] this is also, I think, you know, it substantiates what I've been saying about stagflation being my outlook here. We've got weakening labor um weak or weakening labor conditions not just in the US, but in many countries. Um you know, who who knows about Chinese data, but that the growth in China has recently sparked concern. There's There's plenty of economic weakness out there, and the war certainly doesn't help. You know, the oil squeeze doesn't help, and you've got stubbornly high inflation at the same time. So, sure looks like stagflation to me.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[16:18] I think that we are switching into the capital wastage phase of this particular buildup and so gold and bitcoin should start to perform as more and more money needs to be funneled into this this game to keep the players afloat.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[16:18] I think that we are switching into the capital wastage phase of this particular buildup and so gold and bitcoin should start to perform as more and more money needs to be funneled into this this game to keep the players afloat.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[15:08] just recently, we have upped our um position in Ethereum and bought some Athena, dipping my toes back in the EtherFi. So, I think these are some some good levels. Again, sentiment is despondent. this is what you want at the turn. This is the time to invest.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[26:36] You wrote the announced pace of capex buildout will begin decelerating in mid to late 2027. It will become very apparent by 2028 the deceleration phase is upon us.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[0:18] The second derivative falls and then finally city falls. The first derivative that's game over. Now I think that's going to happen sometime in let's call it 27 early 28. And when that starts happening, then it's, you know, game over for everybody.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[19:13] everything is pointed to we are going to print a ton of money because we believe that AI productivity miracle means that we can lower rates.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[14:39] it's really been uh an earnings driven uh bull market. Which is uh I'd rather have an earnings led melt up than a uh valuation led melt up. Valuation is what uh we call FOMO. And uh earnings led, especially what we have now, is fabulous earnings momentum

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[12:17] we've had the most widely anticipated recession of all times that just isn't happening. Now, maybe one of these days something will finally do it.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[11:23] The earnings uh picture is very solid. Stocks are actually very cheap if you believe the earnings. investors have are kind of worrying that is now instead of irrational exuberance and valuation multiples... What we now have is irrational exuberance in earnings that analysts are way too optimistic about earnings, but analysts are optimistic because companies keep beating expectations. Profit margins keep being higher than had been expected.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[15:49] I think that we'll find that the the um the software companies will do fine, especially the cyber security. Cuz the problem with AI is it's uh the more sophisticated it gets, the more it can uh create havoc in terms of cyber security issues. So, those stocks have done very well.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[15:30] I would say that on balance you you you bet on the people and companies that benefit from AI. Insurance companies I'm understanding are using it very effectively to do what they do and reduce their their their costs.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[7:06] wage inflation moderates, but you know, inflation-adjusted wages are directly tied to productivity. So much depends on the productivity story. um uh Fed chair Kevin Warsh believes that AI is already and will continue to boost productivity. I'm I'm in that camp

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[14:04] looking to maybe invest uh not just in the US, but but globally with an emerging markets fund cuz uh these emerging markets are emerging. They're getting bigger middle classes and more more consumers, so that's that's something that one can invest in.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[2:26] what I'm looking at is if I look at the all-time record highs 5,500 5400 in that area I think that 5,000 of 5100 on the high side is what we could get out of this year

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[17:26] Major support 4200 short-term support 4357 with gold about to if it continues to move higher challenge $4,500 once again.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[15:53] nothing has changed about this story in the last 6 to 7 months. We've been bullish gold and critical minerals for months at Phoenix Capital Research, and we thought this breakout was coming sooner, but it looks as though it's finally here.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[15:53] We've been bullish gold and critical minerals for months at Phoenix Capital Research, and we thought this breakout was coming sooner, but it looks as though it's finally here.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[3:20] I anticipate that they're going to if they want to keep it stabilized, they'll have to intervene again. That's that's that's my guess. I don't I don't think it's got to I I think it's an unstable equilibrium right now, as they say in economics. and and and and the the shorts will keep pounding it and it will go down because the only way you can change the course of a currency is to change the fundamentals and they're not changing the fundamentals of anything.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[13:14] I I think that the the 30-year can at least go up 50 basis points from where it is now.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[13:34] And and it's also a headwind for precious metals which which incidentally look like go gold gold is has you know finished its consolidation and it's going up.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[13:50] the secular bull market in gold that we talked about many times on the program and I happened to be on on board with the secular bull story in gold and I indicated I think the first time I ever did it in public you twisted my arm so hard that I had to confess that I I thought it would peak I peak out at $6,000 an ounce which I'm still holding to

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[9:19] So I think we are not going to see a hike. I think people have been too conditioned to talk about the reaction function. I think I think Wars' reaction function is not going to be that different than prior Feds.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[11:01] I think it's going to be more the two-year in can come down because that's directly affected. There's an ETF. It's a little bit aggressive. It's a TUA is the ETF and it actually tries to invest in two-year treasuries using futures to create longer duration because otherwise, you know, you buy and sell two-year Treasury ETFs, they just don't move very much. So, if you're aggressive on this, like own some Tua and I will probably add to it. Um, because I like that exposure to two-year

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[13:08] Going to see a steeper yield curve for quite a period. I think it's going to be difficult to get 10 years below four and a half%. I don't think they go crazy above 5%. So, I think 10 years to me are fairly rangebound, four and a half to 5%. Unless something changes in the economy.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[13:08] Going to see a steeper yield curve for quite a period.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[15:43] I would much rather own LQD, which to me is the benchmark for longdated corporate bonds, um, versus TLT, which is 20 to 30year treasuries. I have zero interest right now in being long TLT. I do like things like LQD, which is that exposure to longerdated corporate credit, which is becoming very overweight to these, you know, hyperscalers. And I think you'll get some volatility around that, but you're getting paid well over 6% now in some of these cases, or close to 6% for that risk.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[17:44] I think we're not going to have a major escalation on the military side. Having said that, you know, Trump might surprise us all in this weekend and do something wild. Um, but I think, you know, the attempts now to do something on the financial side aren't going to work. I think we're going to back off almost completely.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[21:26] my base case is that somehow we slowly stop talking about this. Maybe we use this last two weeks of August when people are on vacation not to talk about it as much and somehow come September we've declared a win and move on.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[27:08] my sense is this isn't 2 to 3 months down the road. This is 6 months to a year before we really develop true asymmetric warfare of our own

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[35:32] I think we're going to focus so much more on Central and South America for supply chains because that's where we can control China has less influence so I think people are paying more

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[0:11] Get get a one or two% correction over the course of a couple of days, hold, you know, retest that breakout support and then find some buying impetus that would come in and then then move back up and set a new high. That's pretty much going to give you a really good indication the bull market's still intact probably through year end.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[8:08] I'd say it's more probably in the range of 3 to 5%, which will feel like a 20% correction when it occurs. Um, but you know, we're definitely in that cycle.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[1:31] yes, the charts are saying higher that we're likely headed I have a target of around 81 to 8200 on the S&P by year-end. But I think again, this is the final throws before something much worse is on the horizon that's going to hit probably in early 2027.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[11:04] I think inflation is going to stick in this 3 to 4% range, and then ultimately the labor market is going to continue to weaken here, um and we will see essentially a a mini stagflationary scenario in 2027.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[21:10] I do think you are going to get a retrace here. We're probably going to come back towards 4,000, maybe even 39 3,900.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[21:31] I do have it pens penciled out based on a calculator and and calculations that I've done is that by 2029 2031, we'll be at 13,000 on gold.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[24:01] I think that the president will want to get crypto voters back to the back to the polls or back to the voting boxes in November. And he's going to try to push that Clarity Act through before the midterms. And I think that will give you a 10% to 15% run in Bitcoin, maybe even more, taking it into the 70-75,000 range.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[6:30] I think that that the gold trade silver trade are going to come back into vogue again and it will do just quite well if you're patient you have to be patient

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[4:12] I think the commodity, we've underinvested in commodities basically and now we're demanding them like there's no tomorrow and we've got dependencies on nations that we don't want to have long-term relationships and dependencies with and all of that's feeding into I think good opportunities in the commodity space.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[16:27] there will be fallout and there will be a lot of companies that disappear and go bankrupt too. So um that's just part of build out of the new technology.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[14:54] when you're spending a trillion dollars a year plus plus plus and you're trying to generate a 15% return on equity which is what you want to be doing at least on that where's that 150 billion going to come from profitability. They don't know. Um and so what it is it's it's fear of missing out when it comes to the hyperscalers... it's fair to say it's impossible to believe that there's going to be these great high high rates of return.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[0:46] there is a resistance level that we're supposed to be hitting right around now. it's around 4500 that you may see uh gold not punch through that and get rejected and then pull back a little bit.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[5:36] I think from a chart perspective, we are going to have um a meandering down over the next few weeks um to where we were and people should be nibbling on all that stuff on the way down

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[28:28] two years from now if silver is 500 bucks, you're not worrying about whether you paid uh in US spot price, you know, like $68 an ounce or $58 an ounce.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[20:44] I really think that we're going to have a problem in in September or early early October whenever the traditional dates are in that area where we have these typical crashes of the market. The trend seems to be certainly lining up for September or the first week of October.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[11:37] I don't think people will be able to buy gold and silver 10 and 20 years from now.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[3:03] I think we've hit a a temporary peak in the 10-year yield. And you know, the 10-year yield is inversely correlated with speculative names. It's also inversely correlated with tech stocks. And as a result, um now that the market um you know, tends to feel that the 10-year um has peaked which has been my view for the last few weeks although we finally got it now.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[3:29] I think that you have will have a few weeks of of a rally going into midterm elections given there isn't much really Trump can do uh given how close we are.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[10:16] I think we'll get cautious again going into November into the midterm elections because we feel you know, after November that you know, our president is not really going to hold back and we might see a re-escalation in Iran, we might see new tariffs announced because at that point he'll have really nothing to lose. Um so, we're you know, we're going to be cautious again in about a couple months

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[20:45] I think we're going to see, you know, Anthropic, which owns Claude, um IPO in September-October now. And I think they're like looking at 50 billion run rate revenue

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[23:03] The numbers will continue to beat for the next couple quarters. At some point next year, the market will say, "Okay, how long how long is this this sustainable?"

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[5:39] So, that's Warner Brothers Peace Sky. So, that's a cash deal. It was about a $5 spread, so 19%. Uh and we think that it's going to go through antitrust the deal probably will close next year.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[35:25] That's also why I'm buying gold because I think real rates have temporarily peaked.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[35:18] I frankly think that mortgage rates are near near-term peak because they're correlated with the 10-year yield. So, that's why I'm buying mortgage rates right now.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[20:05] According to Morgan Stanley, they're looking at AI CapEx as being, you know, 1.2 trillion next year, which is double the estimate they had last year.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[27:30] I would suspect that this is going to be a somewhat active conflict at least till the midterms.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[26:01] I don't think that you will see profound policy changes if a different government comes into office in Israel. You may you will have a different prime minister and his skills in terms of dealing with Washington may be different from that of Netanyahu, but I don't see profound changes in terms of the direction Israel will go.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[20:27] there's indications that they're going to start importing more oil from Iran because they need to rebuild their strategic reserve and they have a very large one.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[21:32] I suspect that over the long time they're going to have a long-term project of reducing their dependency on the Persian Gulf.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[12:55] I don't think they will succeed. If it happens it will come through a completely different way. they will not be um uh the rubric will not be reparations.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[24:04] I still I feel very comfortable with my $10,000 announce call, which I made on your show and uh earlier, but uh that um we were not looking at peak gold or a meltdown. We were looking at these kinds of draw downs that do happen and now we've hit the bottom and we're going to uh going much higher from here.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[19:04] it fell over 20%, a lot more than 20%. Um, and then the talk was, "Oh, okay. Is this the end of the gold bull market? Is this a bubble? Is it heading down?" A lot of people say, "Yeah, it's it's peaked. It's heading down, you know, etc." Um, but I did an analysis... I said the bottom will be uh at or above 3600. It could go as low as 3600. It actually went to 3,900 which is not exactly 36 but same order of magnitude. And I said, "From there, it's going to bottom, and it's going to go a lot higher very quickly." And that's what happened.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[5:38] My view is that Trump's on the uh losing side of that bet that Iran has the uh the better posture, the the better timeline... The the Trump administration has really been uh I would say kind of misled but maybe misled themselves to wishful thinking about the possibility of regime change in Iran. That is not happening.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[3:00] the longer term into next year, I would be pleasantly surprised if Hormuz flows return to 50% of pre-war by the middle of 2027. Uh, I I just don't I I I don't see it happening.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[2:46] my most likely case is that basically nothing changes between now and the end of the year. I mean, you know, we might have weeks where it looks a little better and weeks where it looks a little worse.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[33:03] probably 80 or 90% will come back the way it was given a couple of days or a couple of weeks. Some of it may not or never will.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[6:04] The affordability crisis is the one issue that I think will derail the Republican Trump MAGA movement in November, uh, where they will be on their heels and they will lose control of the house mainly because the Federal Reserve has been too active in printing money since, uh, since 2020

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[16:44] I don't think it's going up beyond 3 or 4% because you have Warsh who's now uh a semi-monetarist. I think you'll see the money supply, maybe he'll bring the money supply growth rate down uh to that two two to three for maybe four five percent at the most.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[14:28] I think we're only halfway there and yes, at the end it's probably going to be a pretty big bubble when it's all through and we could get similar to the the 2000-2003 era where the NASDAQ fell 70%... but I don't think we're there yet.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[28:47] I think we're halfway through this bull market. It could last until uh, 2029, 2030, uh, I think is a real possibility.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[28:02] No, no, that's that's not a that's not a serious bear market. Didn't even fall 20%... So, I think that was a minor correction. Don't think it was really that serious uh and it's it's clearly bottomed out and starting to move higher again in in August

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[43:35] right now uh gross output is starting to grow faster than GDP, and this is a very positive sign for the economy growing.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[4:14] we're we're moving down the spectrum towards where I where I'd expected we'd be towards the end of the year, which is more more likely a cut. Uh certainly no hikes and uh and whether it's in uh at the you know before the calendar turns or in the first quarter is kind of immaterial.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[10:08] I would continue to play despite the short-term counter trend move. I would continue to play weaker dollar over the coming couple of years and stronger yen.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[9:55] the yen will either naturally or through some intervention stabilize and or actually appreciate relative to the US dollar over the next couple of years.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[0:00] I would be a seller of this move. It's a dead cat bounce. And that's why you see these waterfalls like you saw in 2000, like you saw in 2022 where retail keeps buying the dip based on recency bias. And these these waterfalls tend to persist for more than just a few weeks.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[13:46] I think you're going to see into, you know, maybe the third, four week uh third, fourth week, week of August, uh this deadcat bounce. But retail investors are now chasing this short covering move off the lows 20 30% on stocks that had fallen, you know, in the month of July alone, 30 to some in some cases 55 60%.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[21:02] I think not only do you want to bet on defensives like consumer staples, I also believe you want to bet on defensives like consumer discretionary because consumer confidence is finally starting to bounce off multi-decade and in some cases all-time lows that were reached just a few months ago.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[21:43] consumer discretionary because the consumer has been counted out and you never want to bet against the US consumer when they have a job and with 4% unemployment rate even though job growth is slowing they do have jobs and their consumer confidence is turning up

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[13:31] I think as we what people are mistaken for a rally in semiconductors in memory number one none of them have made new highs by the way most of them if you look at the charts which I sent you about 50 of them uh it's a dead cat bounce And I think what you're going to see, this is normal seasonality.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[33:17] I'm of the camp that the answer will be yes. But it will take another 18 to 24 months. And there will be a point in time during that period where people stop believing that the return will come before the bill comes due and that will be the time to buy the AI trade

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[44:28] You cannot make the case if I lend on a 2026 vintage Nvidia GPU that in seven years it's going to be worth more than it's worth today and I'm going to get my money back. Like, you can't, you know, you cannot, they're going to sell that story, but but it ain't going to be true. I can tell you that 100%. Bet the bank on it.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[2:21] I'm a huge bull on on copper from a a a demand perspective, a price perspective, and I think uh it's a challenge for the industry to be able to deliver it.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[1:00] it doesn't really make a difference which forecast you look at. Uh the demand for copper say out to 2050 is more than we can supply with what we currently have. And it's difficult to see that any of the projects that are ready to be developed, shovel ready or um imminent for that will be able to uh replace not replace but supply what we need for that. So there's a big gap there

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[4:45] There is not going to be a ceasefire deal. Again, we only call things the way they are. Israel is not going to withdraw from Lebanon. They're going to keep stealing more land in Gaza.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[9:22] The lower interest rates go, the deeper the dollar falls. The deeper the dollar falls, the higher gold prices go. And also the world has had enough of the United States geopolitical and socioeconomic agy. The death of the dollar is on the doorstep.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[13:42] I believe they're going to go back to the gold standard and they're going to raise the price to say that we just got rid of our debt level and this is what gold is worth.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[20:48] The equity market crash, I believe, can happen this late September or early o or or October. Right now, the people are in a summer state of mind. It's summertime and the living is easy. They don't know what's going on.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[20:09] There's going to be a bust. Again, we only write the facts in the trends journal about how these big AI companies are deep in debt. They're not making money. A lot of them, they're losing money. China's going to lead the world in this.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[8:20] I believe that Trump is going to do everything to have a ceasefire deal, another fake one up into the midterm elections and then the reward is going to increase after that.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[14:45] if you want to hear me say it's going to go to 6 half,000 by Christmas, I think that's extremely unlikely. I I I think it's more likely to curve over and then drop off again.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[16:01] I look at that chart and I go, it's going to double in the next year. And you know, gold ain't going to double

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[21:33] we're going to get copper vertical moonshot and it'll it'll come down. It'll go up up to 30,000 and everybody will say it's going to 100,000 and then it'll come back to, you know, 20,000 or 15,000 or something like that.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[39:02] they will have to print money for all this re-industrialization, all this competing with China, all this trying to catch up with them, all this rolling out AI and they'll have to print it and that will mean there'll be five to I don't know 5 to 10 um rate of inflation coming down the pike. I I think it would be 5 to seven

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[8:49] if you were to draw a line from the top peak in the middle and underneath at parallel, what you see there is a a falling wedge pattern, right? That's very bullish if it breaks out. As you can see right there, it has broken out of that wedge program or that falling wedge pattern. And that is very very bullish in terms of technical patterns. And you'll see the same thing with silver. I believe that they have indeed.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[36:08] gold has nowhere to go but higher. So yeah, I think that there's smart money realizing this and and front running the the reality that that rates want to go higher

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[36:51] Inflation's coming. It's not going away. It's going to get worse. And uh that's what the traders realize.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[35:44] we haven't even begun to see the effects of the the oil induced price inflation which takes 6 months to run through.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[20:17] we will slowly default on the reserve status. let the dollar collapse slowly, it still will have the rails of commerce, but if you save in it, you're dead.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[8:37] I could see five and a half really sort of pushing them over the sort of over the limit.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[14:07] I suspect that it would go higher uh a little higher. Not a lot maybe, but even to higher maybe even the next quarter or two, but again, that's just a guess. But I could see it next year um all of that stuff breaking down maybe and and and you going back to lower levels. But I just don't think that's going to happen in the next 6 months.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[19:00] if you look at the numbers the history of that when that ratio is over 35 you don't make any money in the next 5 years. So we'll see if it plays out this time but I I I would I'd certainly take a look at and keep it in mind.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[20:13] over the last 6 weeks we replenished all of that cuz we think they all of that stuff will do well going into the end of the year.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[37:08] I think you can still buy it 4,300. I I think gold is is going to do well in the last half of the year

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[38:25] these really big name semiconductors. I mean, I I I think people that don't use this as a time to sell those are going to pay the price. And that's a group that's feast or famine. I've been around them for 40 years and they've all the way back to Texas Instruments and they it's feast or famine. I mean, you're going to blow them up, but they're going to come right back, give it all back one of these days.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[39:30] I do think you need a commodity. You need a portion of your portfolio in commodities. I think you're making a mistake if you don't because we feel like uh the next 10 years you're going to be in more of a commodity cycle, hard asset.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[15:50] I just I can't imagine anybody the next 5 years even if you had a 6 month or 8month window where you got a good trade out of it. I don't think anybody should be looking at 30-year paper.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[39:01] my view, which I said on January 1, is I thought that Wall Street through 2026 would have a range-bound year. Now, I've probably been wrong on that on many accounts, but I still think that the best view for this year is that you've got generally a range-bound market. Uh I don't think there's great upside. I don't think there's a risk of downside.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[0:09] I'd certainly be buying gold silver on weakness. I think you need monetary inflation hedges and I'd be selective in terms of my exposure to Wall Street.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[28:09] underlying GDP growth in the US nominal GDP so that's with inflation is running at something like 7 to 8% and that is incompatible with bond yields currently at what 4.7 at the 10-year level. >> So do you think so bond yields headed higher then? >> There there seems to be no question.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[4:30] you'd expect to see cryptocurrencies under a cloud because they're very liquidity sensitive.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[4:36] you'd expect to see commodity markets, uh, contra-wise actually going up because they're fueled by strong economic demand from the real economy. And I would argue you've got all those facets currently.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[25:28] I think it's going to go up because they look as if they're printing money again. And this chart, which is, you know, I'm not going to win the Nobel Prize for economics or whatever, or any maths prize for this, but this is basically showing uh the relationship between uh the gold price, which is shown in uh in orange there in terms of a 6-week change, and a 6-week change in PBOC liquidity pushed forward by 9 weeks... It shows why the gold market should be picking up now. And reassuringly, it is.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[1:21] I conclude that the economy is going to remain resilient through the end of the decade. I don't think we're going to have a recession and I think um earnings will continue to surprise to the upside and that'll continue to drive the market higher.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[24:28] if the next CPI number remains closer to 3%, especially when you take out food and energy, um, then he's got an explaining to do.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[2:02] I think I can get get you easily $440 of earnings next year. You put a 22 to 23 multiple on that on the S&P, you get to 10,000. You do you from there, you do 15% growth in earnings, and you I can get you to 14 to 15,000 by the presidential election.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[3:33] You told uh BM Bloomberg that uh yeah S&P going to 10,000 gold is going to 9,000.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[25:02] I think I think when this thing when Bitcoin goes there's going to be so much money. And you know, narrative follows price. You can't give it away right now, but everything is lining up for Bitcoin to have a nice significant run here.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[41:13] Gold's probably a double from here.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[41:18] but that's but the S&P 500's a double from here.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[41:11] you know, Micron's probably a double from here, right? Gold's probably a double from here.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[39:54] And and and and and then if it's earnings growth, you know, think about it. $600 a share. What happens if you get to $7 to $800 earnings per share in the S&P 500, David, and you put a 22 multiple on it, right?

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[37:57] we're very close to a bottom, but that still doesn't mean deterioration. If deterioration stops, that means it's a recovery up here.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[34:36] There's no inflation, right? And all I am suggesting is let's get rates down to the neutral level.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[13:30] They need to get rates down so that they can outrun debt. They need to get economic growth going. They need to get nominal GDP running, debt down, I mean interest rates down, and then we need to outgrow this.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[27:28] I don't think it's replacing any jobs. I think the whole thing is a lie. I think it's a completely made up thing. I don't think it replaces jobs. I think don't think it will replace jobs.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[47:17] Why OpenAI and Anthropic cannot become the size of Microsoft or Google

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[0:38:24] I wouldn't be surprised within two years if if we're going to be sitting around 240. It's it's a disaster. These types of situations like the yen is in the the debt situation they have is it's simply not it's not reconcilable.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[0:40:04] We might we might have we might not move hugely in the next month or two, but if you ask me, if you want to take a two-year, one year, two-year prognosis, you're looking at significantly higher numbers.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[0:00:21] You want to buy the weakness. This may be the last look you get at the weakness. So, you better think about getting your buying boots on now rather than waiting for us to cross 5,500 again.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[0:35:44] I don't think the dollar's going to fall in the next 6 months because so much capital is coming into America because of the fear of the war.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[0:35:56] But after that dust is kind of settled, I think you're going to see them go pedal to the metal and try and work off the debt through revaluation of gold. uh releasing of US federal lands which are enormous and extremely valuable out in the western half of the United States and then uh through printing money

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[10:14] Can this happen in the United States? Absolutely, it can. Furthermore, absolutely, it will if the policies that we saw between 2021 and 2024 are implemented again.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[19:08] if the United States starts to sell all the euros, i.e. sovereign debt of the euro area, and then or at the same time, Japan does the same, you will have a European debt crisis. You will have a European debt crisis.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[18:53] the United States, instead of selling dollars, is selling euros. Is selling euros, which is a way of saying to the European Union and to the European Central Bank, 'You are going down a very dangerous path.'

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[18:21] The yen is at 40-year lows. The, uh, currency is very difficult to manage because the, uh, Japanese government continues to overspend and there's way too much issuance of new currency.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[13:55] it will generate a very large social problem mid-term as we have seen in France.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[1:46] saying that the risks of a 1998 style correction were rising uh as we headed into Q3, maybe Q4 of this year... And so that's essentially the kind of market dynamic we see as the most likely outcome in the context of our views on the monetary policy cycle.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[15:08] 19%. So the market rallied 21% I think from December through the high of July. It gave it all back and then some by the end of August and then it rallied like 27% to close up like 20some percent uh by year end.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[9:32] So, in our opinion, we do think the Federal Reserve is going to it's going to have to tighten monetary policy... when you think about where we are where we're headed for the next let's call it two to three months maybe even three to four months particularly when you get into the September October FOMC meetings is the fact that the this modest tailwind in the monetary policy cycle is likely to invert into a headwind.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[0:00] He calculates that it's more likely than not the Federal Reserve will tighten this fall in order to appease the bond market and set itself up to start easing in early 2027.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[24:14] It'll probably decrease uh for two reasons. One, um, the peak impulse from ABBA is in 2026... my assumption is that we're probably peak paradigm C here in 2026. We'll still be running a nomally hot economy in 20207. Uh but ultimately uh it probably won't be, you know, this is probably as good as it gets from a growth rate perspective.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[6:39] will this dynamic force Kevin Borch and his colleagues at the FOMC to print. Uh yes is the answer.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[22:15] Our budget deficit will widen. It'll probably double. You know, we'll go from about $1.8 8 trillion to, you know, somewhere around 3.6 to 4 trillion.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.