Mark Thornton Predictions
Senior Fellow, Mises Institute; Austrian Economist
Track Mark Thornton's public market predictions and forecast accuracy. Each prediction is recorded from the date it was published to its estimated deadline, then graded correct or wrong based on the outcome.
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[21:58] That's all going to be adversely affected by what are already high prices for diesel which I expect to go much higher uh because of the um bottlenecks caused uh by the war in the Persian Gulf area.
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[21:00] I think we're at sort of the end stage of a very long and vast bubble in the stock market which has been enhanced by below market interest rates and now basically interest rates are in real terms adjusted for inflation near zero. So we're seeing uh over the last quarter or so a big blowoff top uh in stocks. So I think there's that risk.
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[10:48] we're going to eventually see a cluster of entrepreneurial errors when these data centers are not profitable uh you know going forward
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[41:23] I think they're going to try to use financial repression and uh that means the Fed is going to come in that would mean if if that's true, if my guess is true, that would mean an expansion of quantitative easing. And that means where the Fed directly purchases government bonds from the market to suppress interest rates. And specifically, I think they would be making purchases from the long end of the curve in terms of 10-year and 30-year government bonds
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[43:23] I think also he's going to try to get to the target rate of inflation which they haven't done in over five years by simply redefining the statistics. uh that's been the last refuge of uh central bankers that when they they can't actually make markets behave the way they really want then they just change the information that's being put out. In this case statistics uh they'll just rememeasure consumer prices so it appears that they're closer to the 2% target.
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[28:52] So where there's a looming agricultural crisis uh in the next couple of crop rotations. So um you know these things spiral out of control
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[32:55] copper is in tight supply. It's at an all-time high price right now. And it's in very high demand by AI and data centers
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[7:13] the case Schiller um uh measure of valuation of the S&P 500 is at its second highest level above normal valuations in history. So if you go back 150 years, there's only been one time when the case uh measure of valuation was any higher in relative term. So yes, we are late stage and we are um you know seeing that final uh stages of blowoff in asset markets.
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[21:16] breaking support in terms of the the uh foreign exchange value of the US dollar. That's also uh looks weak. It looks like it's on a precipice. uh it's been testing uh up in the high 90s right now. It's broken through down through a 100.
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[20:38] we're pretty much poised on a precipice of interest rates on long-term government debt breaking out to the upside.
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[46:05] I don't see this really getting um there's no path of this getting better uh for the American household other than those in the top 1% other than those in the top 10%
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