Doug Casey Predictions
Author and Investment Analyst
Track Doug Casey's public market predictions and forecast accuracy. Each prediction is recorded from the date it was published to its estimated deadline, then graded correct or wrong based on the outcome.
- Rankings only reflect predictions tracked on this site and do not represent a predictor's full record.
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[10:00] it seems to me that oil is underpriced uh right now at $90 a barrel. If you look at the futures markets, both Brent and uh uh WTI, uh they're in backwardation. In other words, you look at oil several months ahead, it's a lot cheaper than it is on the on on the front month, which seems to be saying that the market thinks that uh oil itself is going to get cheaper. That 6 months from now it's going to be $80 or $70 a barrel, something like that. I don't think so. I think that it's actually going to go much higher
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[21:08] my prediction, and I hesitate to predict the d direction of interest rates, uh, but I think in the coming years, we're going to see interest rates go back to the levels they were in the early 80s and beyond
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[40:10] I believe for the long term I think China is going to continue to rise and that's true of East Asia generally speaking
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[45:53] silver has been in deficit for the last five or 6 years. It's likely to stay in deficit for quite a while
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[0:11] Gold is now trading more than it should be by historical levels. But that doesn't mean it couldn't go to $10,000 an ounce or more because who wants to hold the dollar?
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[0:36] The Iranians are going to make this an asymmetric war, a long war. That's bad news for us here in the West.
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[3:59] Certainly before we get foreign exchange controls, which I also think are on the way, that'll make it impossible for you to diversify even if you're able to.
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[20:44] I think that these mining stocks are, believe it or not, still undervalued. Gold slightly overvalued. Mining stocks still very cheap. I think they got a big run in front of them still.
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[29:03] I think the Iranians are going to come out on top of this. The uh I don't think the US or the Israelis really know what they're doing here.
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[0:00] So, silver hitting $100 next year, would that surprise you? >> No. In fact, I expect it to happen.
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[0:11] we're on the edge of a massive depression. The most basic reason for it is the debasement of the dollar.
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[20:15] no matter what the Fed does in the short run, long-term interest rates are headed up back to the levels that they were in the early 1980s, which most people have forgotten, even the US government was paying 15, 16, 17% for for to sell tea bills. U back in the early 1980s, uh we're headed back there just because of the debasement of the currency.
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[20:46] I think in the next three or four years, it's reasonable that we're going to see even official numbers show inflation's running at 7 8 10% maybe more.
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[25:45] It's going to fall apart because because all these governments in Europe like the they're all bankrupt anyway. So, this is a shell game.
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[29:56] I think they're all going higher. They're all really cheap right now, incidentally. They're really cheap.
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The prediction claimed energy stocks 'are all going higher' with bullish sentiment, and XLE reached a period high of $60.32 (28.7% gain from $46.89) during the prediction window, exceeding the implied upward move and confirming the bullish directional claim.