George Noble Predictions

[5:11] I think interest rates going to go up. I think oil prices are going to continue to go up until the stock market breaks.

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[5:15] I think oil prices are going to continue to go up until the stock market breaks.

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[7:58] It wouldn't surprise me if the 10 year is at six. Right now, we're at five.

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[3:32] this idea that inflation is somehow going to go down to 2%. To me, it's just unfathomable.

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[27:06] inflation is is three and change and heading up, not down.

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[0:12] we're nearing top of the cycle. Earnings are very volatile and when the economy slows and we go into a recession, I think you're going to see earnings really take a header, especially because of what I see going on with AI and technology.

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[13:02] I'm passionately bearish on consumer stocks.

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[13:02] I'm passionately bearish on consumer stocks. Uh but I'm wildly bullish on gold and energy stocks.

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[13:02] I'm passionately bearish on consumer stocks. Uh but I'm wildly bullish on gold and energy stocks.

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[30:58] Housing great location. Houses in a world of hurt now.

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[26:32] what will cause a slowdown as I said I think rates and oil will continue to go up until until we get a until the market breaks and we will get a recession

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[27:39] I think you're looking at best case stagflation and it may be a stagflationary recession

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[27:49] interest rates are not going to come down meaningfully unless we get a big recession. And even then, we might not get rates coming down a whole lot for the reasons I just said.

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[36:09] I just think the upside in markets is very limited and the downside is potentially quite significant.

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[11:11] if the AI thing stops which I believe it will and goes into reverse I think you will see a recession and probably a very nasty one at that.

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[21:40] let's say the Democrats do sweep. All right. What's that going to do to the market? I suspect they're not going to like it.

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[7:20] This stock, in my opinion, you can quote me on this. Okay? This stock is going to get cut in half. All right? Maybe by as soon as the year end.

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[14:38] now the float is going up by 5x tomorrow and it's going to go to 50 100% over the ensuing months saying 7% incremental unlocks over the next few months

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[10:28] I think bond yields are going up. I think bond like where they go to five, five and a half, six, I don't know, but they're going up. And when they go up, that's not exactly going to be good for the stock market

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[27:17] gold, I think, is finding its footing. Notice the last couple weeks it's starting to dig in. And I think the gold miners in particular are incredibly interesting because you know the lever plays in the gold price and when the gold price starts to go again which I think it will

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[27:17] I think the gold miners in particular are incredibly interesting because you know the lever plays in the gold price and when the gold price starts to go again which I think it will some of these mining stocks I think will double or triple from here.

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[5:30] profits for the energy sector are surging. Energy represents only about three three and a half% of the S&P but it's 13% of free cash flow probably going to 20% next year.

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[19:01] if I said to you, hey Julie, you know what? Oil prices are going back up, which I do believe, made that call a few weeks ago.

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[34:07] this is far worse than far worse. Yes, I know these companies have pees and they're making earnings... the bubble is in the profit margins of all these companies it's unsustainable... Are any of these companies going to make any really money out of this? And my answer is no.

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[27:17] I think all this fiat currency is going to devalue against real assets, which is one of the reasons why I still like gold very much and gold miners.

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[11:50] This is literally a replay of the tech bubble except not to the same degree. It hasn't gone down 70%. But it's on the way there.

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[14:25] I think gold is in the process of making a bottom. And again, check back with me in 6 to 12 months. These are investments. They're not trades.

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[15:55] I think before it's all over, you know, gold is at 10,000 or whatever. So, I remain very the whole reflation complex generally, I'm still very positive on.

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[19:39] I've been bullish. I've been bearish consistently on bonds for two, three years, and I'm not changing my tune.

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[26:53] Who knows what the oil price is going to do. I think it's flat to up. But you can look at what's priced in the stocks.

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[27:11] I very very very much like energy. Mind folks, energy is still only 3 and a half% of the S&P, roughly half of the market cap of one tech stock, Apple or Nvidia.

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[33:40] I think SpaceX is worth about $30 a share. I've done a lot of work on this.

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[35:46] Tesla's worth maybe 50 bucks, 40 bucks, I don't know, 30, 40, 50. By the way, it's funny. It's kind of like the same target valuation for SpaceX. Meanwhile, SpaceX is worth, you know, instead of 30, it's worth 135. Tesla, instead of 40, it's a 380 where everything is saying. By the way, we're short Tesla from 25% higher from last year. So, I would short Tesla.

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[36:17] I think I think Oracle can go bankrupt.

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[36:43] the extent to which they're they're faced inextricably linked to Open AI, which I think will go bankrupt. OpenAI will go bankrupt.

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[6:11] We spoke last time about the possibility of the yields going to 5% or higher. U, you asked me, do I have more conviction in that view now? Yes, I certainly do.

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[6:49] the leadership, as you know, many of your guests have spoken about has become very narrow. Um, it's been all tech all the time since the end of March. I think that's to me that's unsustainable. It looks like a tremendous blowoff.

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[7:40] Consumer stocks making multi-year relative lows, Home Depot, Lowe's, McDonald, Lululemon, just go down the list... I think the consumer stocks have been underperforming. I think they continue to underperform whether we technically get a definition to get a defined um uh recession or not.

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[12:32] I think the gold miners are outstanding right now. They're out of favor. So, the talking heads aren't talking about them, but I think this is a great time to be in the gold miners. So, gold miners, energy, regardless what the energy price does, we're going to have to drill for a lot more oil.

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[19:08] god forbid the price of gold goes up which I for expect it will these stocks could double triple without any problem at all... I think I think gold and gold miners go higher.

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[11:25] The yen has continued to weaken. Yeah, it's bounced a little bit the last couple weeks, but in the bigger scheme of things, the yen has been much weaker than virtually anyone anticipated. There's a simple reason for that. Interest rates aren't high enough.

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[21:30] I think this continues to be perhaps the biggest misallocation of uh capital in the history of the world. Right now, the market doesn't care about it broadly speaking... the MAG 7's done well the last few weeks, but prior to that, it did poorly for 5 6 months. It made up that underperformance in a relatively short period of time. And I think we're soon going back to that.

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[23:27] I believe the earnings of Nvidia are in a bubble. People say, 'Well, the PE is not high.' Yeah, I know the PE is not high, but look at where the margins are relative to the past... the problem with Nvidia is not what are they making last quarter, this quarter, it's where it's how sustainable are these earnings and these margins, what they'll be making three or four years from now.

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[30:44] Fresh which I think we talked about previously which Tom Chains nailed at our last conference. Stock went from 80 to 49. I think it's going it's going to 10.

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[37:55] active managers based on the last day at ISaw are killing it now. You know, I think the easiest way to outperform the market... it was so hard to outpour the market for a number of years cuz if you didn't know Mag 7, you were dead.

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[27:40] you're seeing, you know, as some have pointed out, um, the whole kamay thing, it started out with gold. That's moved to energy, food, depending what you're looking at, starting to really pick up like meat prices... it's starting to permeate. And then you look in the sector in the in the service sector inflation is kind of sticky.

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[12:42] regardless what the energy price does, we're going to have to drill for a lot more oil. Drill, baby, drill. And, you know, per growth in the Perian has plateaued... I think the service companies look terrific. Uh we've been in the OIH. Um I think land drillers in particular in particular look look very good right now.

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[4:28] I think, uh, you know, oil prices were looking at higher for longer. If we use the sports phrase, if we look at the overunder, I'll take the over.

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[7:47] I think bonds are mispriced. I think yields are heading up.

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[10:27] I think you faded here... if you want to make a market call, which I don't like making, I think I I'd sell out rather than buy it.

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[4:10] The inflation number you asked about, I think there's more where that came from.

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[18:04] is gold going to 6,000, 8,000, 10,000. I think it is eventually... I think gold and the miners and silver and the miners are going much higher.

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[20:38] So to me, I mean, stocks like 30 and change that, 33, whatever it is, the stock could easily double in the next year easily.

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[10:43] I would stay away from tech, just as I mentioned last time. Software, we said stay away from it's too hard. I'd still stay away from that.

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[19:25] This is a bad time to be buying semis. Forward returns from this point in the cycle are horrendous... I think forward returns looking at 12 months, 24 months are going to be pretty poor for some.

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[35:52] The risk you should be concerned about right now is not recession, depression, interest rates going down. Owning bonds, having 40% of your portfolio in bonds does not hedge you against that risk.

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[6:56] it wouldn't surprise me if you see yields north of 5% um or more.

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[9:31] I expect China, the Chinese stock market and historically haven't been a fan of Chinese equities. I think that's going to outperform the the US uh again in uh in in 26.

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[11:40] do I see the dollar lower? Yeah, I do.

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[5:56] I think oil prices are headed up.

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[5:52] I think inflation is sticky and probably heading up.

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[31:11] I think small caps will outperform large caps. But it's not so much because I'm bullish on small caps. It's because I think large caps are going to do worse. Small caps might be flat and large caps are going to go down. So I think small caps will will outperform large caps.

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