Lawrence Lepard Predictions
Founder of Equity Management Associates
Track Lawrence Lepard's public market predictions and forecast accuracy. Each prediction is recorded from the date it was published to its estimated deadline, then graded correct or wrong based on the outcome.
- Rankings only reflect predictions tracked on this site and do not represent a predictor's full record.
- Grading involves judgment and may not always be clear-cut.
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[0:00] look out. Gold goes to seven, you know, silver goes to 200, Bitcoin goes to 180. I mean, that's that's kind of what I see.
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[0:00] look out. Gold goes to seven, you know, silver goes to 200, Bitcoin goes to 180. I mean, that's that's kind of what I see.
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[0:00] look out. Gold goes to seven, you know, silver goes to 200, Bitcoin goes to 180. I mean, that's that's kind of what I see.
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[4:22] I feel like we're carving a bottom here in Bitcoin. A lot of the good uh analysts that I follow in the the economic or the models that I follow, there's one in particular that's very useful called the power law model, um suggests that, you know, we're close to the bottom, if not at the bottom. So, you know, whether we end here at 59 or 58, or we whip down to 54, I I don't think we're going to see a number that starts with 40.
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[31:31] I'm here to say I don't believe that's going to happen. In fact, I think it's probably the same equivalent chance that between now and the year end, they're going to actually cut rates.
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[1:48] clearly we're going higher and the only issue is when. And I I think the when is this year. Um, maybe in the, you know, now it's beginning to look more like it's a third quarter thing, but we'll see.
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[3:59] if you miss the first run, this isn't a bad in my opinion, this isn't a bad time to be getting in. you know, buying in in the low fours or buying silver in the 60s or 70s. Um, you know, that's that's a that's a decent buy because I think we've got another couple coming.
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[3:59] buying in in the low fours or buying silver in the 60s or 70s. Um, you know, that's that's a that's a decent buy because I think we've got another couple coming.
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[26:48] my view is we're actually going to go in the other direction that we're going to go to 100, 120, 150.
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[27:26] I don't think we're ever going below 50 again.
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[24:47] Um, with it at $66, it's a lot better business. At 150, it's an insanely good business. And so that's why the miners are in my opinion the the real sweet spot right now. Silver miners and I've got a portfolio full of them.
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[17:43] My sense is that he's going to have his his task force um you know working day and night to figure out a way to justify a lower you know inflation number. he's going to get a little bit of relief out of the Middle East with you know oil prices we all know have just dropped substantially and you know that's going to be that combination is going to allow him to ease at the next meeting
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[14:57] I think I think we've got inflation baked into the next 5 years at least, maybe longer.
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[29:24] I do feel like the AI stocks are extremely overheated right now and, you know, they're going to have a hard time living up to the immediate expectations that they're going to generate enormous cash flow.
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[26:17] I actually think there's a pretty decent chance that it's not a break the glass big print this time around, but that it's more of a run it hot big print. In other words, you know, he cuts the rates, the credit starts to grow again. You know, we get all this AI buildout. Unemployment stays quite low. Um, but we have serious serious inflation and the Fed just says, 'Well, you know, we're not going to deal with that because we've got this industrial policy.'
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[27:53] maybe the stock market continues making new nominal highs. I mean, I, you know, I've kind of given up on being a bear on the stock market.
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[3:45] I published the book in February of 25. And so we're over the book has been out now over a year, almost a year and a half. Uh, and I said at that time frame I thought would happen within two years. I might be proven wrong, but we'll see what happens between now and next February.
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[19:45] in spite of recent price behavior in Bitcoin, gold, and silver, you know, I'm still massively bullish on all three of these things. And, and we're just in kind of one of those periods where they they got ahead of themselves last year.
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[19:45] in spite of recent price behavior in Bitcoin, gold, and silver, you know, I'm still massively bullish on all three of these things. And, and we're just in kind of one of those periods where they they got ahead of themselves last year.
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[19:45] in spite of recent price behavior in Bitcoin, gold, and silver, you know, I'm still massively bullish on all three of these things. And, and we're just in kind of one of those periods where they they got ahead of themselves last year.
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[28:46] a recession in in the relatively near term is highly unlikely as long as the spending that is going on right now continues at this magnitude. So, you know, you referenced the AI capex spending.
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[0:12] if I had to put this in baseball terms, I would say we're in a gold stock bull market and I think we're probably in the second inning.
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[1:33] they're both going to go much higher and they're both ways of protecting yourself against inflation.
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[3:14] you should be happy that gold's going up because it means Bitcoin's about to go up next. That's the pattern.
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The prediction claimed Bitcoin would go up following gold's pattern, but Bitcoin declined 32.3% from the prediction date price of $104,719.64 to the period low of $60,074.20, with the target date close at $70,893.66 also showing a significant loss, making this bullish prediction incorrect.
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[20:28] I think gold's going to 10,000 20,000 50,000 because that's how much fiat money has been printed
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[27:09] I tend to think that it's going to happen in the next six months. Maybe a year at the most.
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[34:14] I personally believe that in this next cycle, we'll break double digits. The last cycle we went up to nine.
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