Jim Bianco Predictions

President of Bianco Research

Track Jim Bianco's public market predictions and forecast accuracy. Each prediction is recorded from the date it was published to its estimated deadline, then graded correct or wrong based on the outcome.

18 forecasts 43% accuracy 3 correct 4 wrong 11 pending
  • Rankings only reflect predictions tracked on this site and do not represent a predictor's full record.
  • Grading involves judgment and may not always be clear-cut.
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18 forecasts
Person Subject Forecast* Source Date Deadline** Outcome
Jim Bianco Oil Within a couple of weeks to a month, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz will lead to real supply constraints in the oil market
See quote
[8:05] We don't have but a couple of more weeks, maybe a month that we could keep doing that before the the cumulative impact of the straight being closed is going to lead to real supply constraints in the oil market.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Wealthion 2026-05-20 2026-06-20 pending
Jim Bianco Fed Funds Rate Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will shift to a neutral stance on rates for the next several months rather than cutting
See quote
[14:06] I personally don't think he believes those anymore and that he'll moderate to a more of a neutral stance. And that's where I think we're going to be for the next several months.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Wealthion 2026-05-20 2026-12-31 pending
Jim Bianco Fed Funds Rate The Fed will not hike rates at the June 17th meeting
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[13:31] I don't think they're going to hike at that meeting.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Wealthion 2026-05-20 2026-06-17 pending
Jim Bianco Treasury Yields Interest rates will continue to move higher without triggering an imminent crisis
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[25:09] I do think rates will continue to move higher. I don't think I'm at the point where I'm going to say that we're at imminent risk of breaking something. That could be later, but not right now.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Wealthion 2026-05-20 2026-12-31 pending
Jim Bianco Recession A recession will occur but it will be concentrated in the rest of the world, not the US
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[26:30] Will there be a recession? Yes. But where will that recession be? It'll be in the rest of the world. Okay, good. It's not in the US.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Wealthion 2026-05-20 2027-05-20 pending
Jim Bianco US Dollar The US Dollar will move sideways to lower from current levels
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[32:44] I don't necessarily think that the dollar will rally from here. It could actually, you know, continue to turn sideways to lower. That's the way I think it's going to go.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Wealthion 2026-05-20 2026-12-31 pending
Jim Bianco Private Credit Private credit funds with heavy software exposure will see significant deterioration in cash flows and valuations within 12-18 months due to AI disruption
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[38:15] investors are saying yes, but in a year or 18 months, will you be able to say that? And the answer we think as investors is no, you can't. The massive disruption is coming.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Wealthion 2026-05-20 2027-11-20 pending
Jim Bianco Private Credit Private credit stress from AI disruption of software companies will not become a systemic financial problem
See quote
[39:03] So since it is a technological disruption, I'm going to argue no, I don't think it's going to be a systemic problem.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Wealthion 2026-05-20 2027-05-20 pending
Jim Bianco Silver Silver will break above $50 for the first time in its history and could reach $75 to $100.
See quote
[0:08] I think we're going to take out $50 for the first time in silver's history and we're probably going to keep moving higher. It's go to 75 or 100.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The David Lin Report 2025-10-12 2026-12-31 pending
Jim Bianco S&P 500 Stocks will return approximately 6% annually over the next 5 to 10 years.
See quote
[19:41] what should you expect stocks to return you over the next say 5 to 10 years about 6%.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The David Lin Report 2025-10-12 2034-10-12 pending
Jim Bianco Gold Precious metals will continue to be the best performing assets through the last quarter of 2025 into 2026.
See quote
[32:31] I'll contradict myself in that what's got the momentum and the momentum is precious metals and AI stocks. So that you know you said the last quarter that's two months to 3 months to four months. They probably will continue to be the best performers.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The David Lin Report 2025-10-12 2026-03-31

The prediction claimed precious metals would be 'the best performing assets' through the target period. Gold (GC=F) returned +7.6% while the S&P 500 (^GSPC) returned -1.0%, confirming precious metals outperformed equities as the best performer during the prediction window.
Jim Bianco Inflation Rate Inflation will increase over the next few months due to tariffs
See quote
[1:01] I actually think they are right and I actually do think inflation is coming. Uh and I'm talking about over the next few months because of tariffs.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The David Lin Report 2025-06-19 2025-09-19

CPI rose from 2.7% year-over-year in June 2025 to 3.0% by September 2025, with NBER research confirming tariffs boosted the U.S. Inflation Rate by approximately 0.7 percentage points between March and August 2025. (https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sb0301)
Jim Bianco 10-Year Treasury Yield 10-year Treasury yields will rise above 5%
See quote
[5:36] The 10 year and 30-year, I think they'll punch through 5%. That's my expectation, but not maybe by the end of the summer.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The David Lin Report 2025-06-19 2025-12-31

The prediction claimed 10-year Treasury yields would 'punch through 5%', but the period high was only $4.49 (4.49%) on 2025-07-17, which fell short of the 5% target by 51 basis points, so the specific claim was not met.
Jim Bianco S&P 500 Stocks will return around 6% over the next several years
See quote
[19:01] I've been terming these the four, five, six markets that over the next several years, cash will return you 4%, bonds will return you around five, and stocks because of their high valuation will return you around six.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The David Lin Report 2025-06-19 2028-06-19 pending
Jim Bianco European Stocks European stocks will outperform US stocks due to better relative valuations
See quote
[20:04] That's why I think people are rotating into Europe? Because European stocks have so badly underperformed US stocks for many, many years. They've got very good relative valuations.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The David Lin Report 2025-06-19 2025-12-31

The prediction claimed European stocks (EZU) would outperform US stocks (^GSPC), but EZU gained 13.3% while ^GSPC gained 14.7% over the period, meaning US stocks outperformed Europe contrary to the prediction.
Jim Bianco Energy Sector Energy sector will outperform over the next 6 months
See quote
[24:20] Oh, I think that, you know, for the end of the year, for the next 6 months, I think that all the safe plays are going to be probably the play to go with. It's going to be energy, it's going to be gold

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The David Lin Report 2025-06-19 2025-12-19

XLE underperformed the general market
Jim Bianco Gold Gold will outperform over the next 6 months
See quote
[24:20] Oh, I think that, you know, for the end of the year, for the next 6 months, I think that all the safe plays are going to be probably the play to go with. It's going to be energy, it's going to be gold

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The David Lin Report 2025-06-19 2025-12-19

Gold (GC=F) returned 29.5% over the 6-month period while the S&P 500 (^GSPC) returned 14.5%, meaning gold outperformed the stock market benchmark by a significant margin, matching the bullish prediction that gold would be 'the play to go with' as a safe play.
Jim Bianco Magnificent Seven Magnificent Seven stocks will underperform due to high valuations
See quote
[25:31] I think at the least right now are probably the most overvalued companies and I'm going to point towards the Mag Seven right now. You've got, you know, the Mag Seven have got to see lots of things going right

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The David Lin Report 2025-06-19 2025-12-31

The prediction claimed Magnificent Seven stocks would underperform due to high valuations. QQQ (Nasdaq-100, heavily weighted toward Mag Seven) returned 17% versus S&P 500's 14.7%, meaning the Mag Seven actually outperformed the broader market during the prediction period, directly contradicting the bearish underperformance claim.