Thomas Hoenig Predictions

Former CEO of the Kansas City Fed, Former FOMC Voting Member, Distinguished Senior Fellow at the Mercatus Center

Track Thomas Hoenig's public market predictions and forecast accuracy. Each prediction is recorded from the date it was published to its estimated deadline, then graded correct or wrong based on the outcome.

4 forecasts 4 pending
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4 forecasts
Person Subject Forecast* Source Date Deadline** Outcome
Thomas Hoenig US Dollar The US dollar will continue to decline in purchasing power on an ongoing basis due to money printing and trade deficits.
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[38:30] Oh, I'm very confident of that. It's hard not to be confident in that projection because it's it's it's actually accelerated over the last 50 years or so. Um, and since we've gone on off the gold exchange standard, it was it was still it was declining before that, but now now it's accelerated. And so, yeah, you have to be, you know, you have to be in other assets because that's where the the the p, you know, that's where everything flows to... and you are going to inflate your way uh into a uh ever less valuable purchasing power of the dollar... that's how I see the future a continued decline in the purchasing power of the dollar.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Thoughtful Money 2026-05-13 2028-05-13 pending
Thomas Hoenig Inflation Rate The US economy will experience an inflationary boom in 2026.
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[21:46] before the war began um I was still saying we're we will have an inflationary boom in 2026 and for some of the reasons you've just mentioned number one there was one big beautiful bill.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Thoughtful Money 2026-05-13 2026-12-31 pending
Thomas Hoenig US Economy The US economy will experience a significant downturn (hangover phase) in the mid-2027 to 2028 timeframe following the current inflationary boom.
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[25:18] I just don't see it happening until after. Now what I worry about to be honest with you Adam is once you get through this next year comes and we have all this uh strong asset appreciation this very strong uh uh pressure into the market to to expand and then the debt continues to grow. Uh it's hard then to avoid inflation getting uh further out of control which forces the hand of the Fed as it did when it got to 9% inflation in 2022 to raise rates and then you have this this very significant pullback with a larger bubble... That's what I worry about. 20 20 late 20 mid 27 into 28 I'm more uh concerned about in terms of the economy's vibrancy.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Thoughtful Money 2026-05-13 2028-12-31 pending
Thomas Hoenig Fed Funds Rate The Fed will face strong pressure to raise interest rates by end of 2026, with a rate hike becoming increasingly likely in 2027.
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[27:01] as we get towards the end of this year, um that the evidence will become more will become stronger that we have an inflationary problem and therefore you need to be raising rates. Now whether we will do that, the pressure that will be on the Fed not to do that is the question I cannot answer for sure. It depends on how this FOMC goes. But then as you get into next year, I think the odds on a rate increase are much higher. Uh and and I don't know how they avoid it.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Thoughtful Money 2026-05-13 2027-12-31 pending