S&P 500 Predictions

[3:42] Well, I'm in complete agreement with Jeremy Grantham that we're in the greatest bubble in stock bubble in US history. and he he thinks you're going to have a great crash. The stocks are going to decline 70%. Or more. Um, I'm not sure that will happen, but I know this is the this I agree with him that this is the greatest bubble

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[25:17] the valuations of the top 10, you may not see the numbers, are almost the same as their um as the their average over this time period. So, the average is about 20.8 times forward earnings, and they're about 21.6 times. So, there's not a some kind of valuation distortion, Adam, and that's why I think we can be, you know, really comfortable um just riding this wave.

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[31:46] I do expect to see some real market problems in September and we'll have to have another conversation in August, I guess, to get another update on what's going on next.

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[12:34] my prediction is you'll see stocks down the S&P up to 50% within 3 months and the Nasdaq up to 60% and it'll happen so fast, then you'll panic and sell and then it'll bounce against that to say you're wrong and then it'll crash 80 to 90% in the next 2 years if history has anything to say about this.

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[5:15] we should see the markets go down very strongly into October or late this year. And And that's what I'm looking for now.

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[33:06] we should see a sharp 40-50% crash in stocks by the end of this year. That would be the sign that this bubble's over

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[2:42] we don't we're not at the point where again the stock market is topping right here and now. That's not what I see... I I I think it's going to happen. I mean, it's um there's no indication that the market has stopped at this point.

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[0:00] Yeah, we still think the risk of a 1998 style correction markets is is still pretty high over the next one and two quarters.

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[12:01] the S&P 500 is up on average about 12% with a 75% hit rate. And the reason for that is the stock market doesn't care about geopolitics. The stock market doesn't care about politics. The stock market cares about earnings and stock prices follow earnings over time.

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[29:51] We're up 10% in the first 6 months. Our target range is 7,400 7,800. We're in the middle of that now. That's why I think you don't chase it here and and you buy pullbacks. We'll get some, David, right? It's a midterm year. We'll get some V this summer.

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[20:49] we're going to go from an environment where companies were buying back a trillion plus dollars a year in shares um to now being net issuers and uh net borrowers. So there's a tremendous demand for you know there'll be first a supply of equities rather than you know an expanding supply of equities rather than a shrinking supply of equities which has had the double whammy effect of both boosting um the prices but also the earnings per share metric

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[13:15] I think 7800 is a very reasonable target I think 7853 off the top of my head uh uh stands out

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[0:21] I am becoming more cautious as to this top being more than just a pullback and a buying opportunity.

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[3:13] we're broadly following the 1920s. So, we're in a big bull market. We're definitely in a big bull market that culminates potentially in 2029

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[24:14] I think the kind of the maybe call it the easy money part of the cycle is passed. Um and you're going to get into the kind of the choppier more volatile part of the uh kind of market cycle coming up in the next 6 to 12 months.

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[16:55] S&P 500 earnings are expected to grow north of 20% and and you know, that's all fine, but you know, when you take a look at the five hyperscalers, they're talking about spending, I'm looking at my notes real quick, 760 billion this year. They're going to only expense about 211 billion of that. So, the depreciation bill that nobody's paying attention to is coming due over the next couple of years, and that's going to impact earnings growth as well.

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[32:55] this particular um storm, which is one of of um month end, quarter end, half year end, year end, all at the same time, which is the end of June, that should rectify itself in July and then we should be off to the races again.

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[26:55] Uh, I think it's got a great chance to go down to 7200. Uh, I think the highs are in. I think the next resistance would be about it would be at 7520 would be where I would be reselling and adding on to my position.

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[21:25] we've got midterms coming up, which is termally ter normally between now and midterms, the markets are lower anyways. You throw a rate a rate hike in there, you could see some pretty serious selling.

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[23:48] I think that you know we'll probably be sideways to down for a little bit here but I think by the end of the year in 2027 you know we'll see new highs in equities.

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[0:00] we're going to likely see a major correction until at least the second half of 2027, if not 2028.

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[13:57] we could see it pull back to roughly about 6,000 on the S&P 500 down to about 5,500. And so, that is from, you know, the current price today. That is about 18 to a 24% uh pullback in the equities market.

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[14:39] If we take a look at this one from a a zoomed in perspective, this current leg, it is showing that we could see about to 7100 down to about 7,000. So, if the S&P 500 pulls back here, we got about a 3 and a half to about 6% drop. And that'll be a healthy correction.

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[3:00] when we think about this for the next five or 10 years if you're buying at this price it's not something that's going to do well over the long run. this is not the time to be expanding your um risk assets.

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[6:23] And I think that's what we're going to experience in the coming uh months and quarters.

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[27:04] my view through this year, I mean rightly or wrongly, uh we're halfway through is that what you'd see from Wall Street in 2026 would broadly speaking be a range-bound market. There'd be volatility, uh but it would really go sideways because the authorities wouldn't be tightening that aggressively. Uh and I think that's still the case. But, I think as we roll the clock on, uh the odds are that liquidity conditions are going to tighten more and more and more. Uh and that that projection uh becomes, you know, maybe challenged by year end or into '27.

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[0:23] I don't have a very bullish outlook for equities and clearly as well for bonds.

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[8:02] I do think I do think we're going to have a little bit of a pullback here, at least for July. I think July is going to be a little tough.

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[47:03] my view would be that there is a big disappointment coming. That both home prices will go down and stocks price will go down. Maybe not so much in nominal terms, but against gold, the market is way down since 2000.

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[16:13] I think that smackdown is going to come within the next 9 months into Q1. You're going to have a comeuppance here. Maybe driven by the Fed, maybe driven by Trump, maybe driven by war. Who knows? But like things are going to teeter and fall at some point.

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[9:47] it's going to imply a lower equity market. You know, liquidity is draining out of the market and what this means is that over time people are going to go to more defensive stocks and bonds.

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[0:19] the top will be in Q3 of this year. And uh that's being as bold as I can right now.

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[0:27] we could see a huge deflationary factor from the fact that the stock market could implode, which I think it will

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[26:06] I mean, it's going the opposite. It's it's not doing that. If anything, tech is eating more and more of the S&P 500... we're going to have over the next 5 years, 7 10 years, we're going to have this big transition where the S&P 500's composition goes from 50% tech to maybe 30% tech. And hard asset companies like the BHPs, like the Rio Tintos, like the Alcoas, like the the Agniko Eagles, they become a bigger part of these.

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[2:21] I don't expect anything out of the Fed to have dramatic movements in the stock market immediately after.

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[3:49] That's not to say I wouldn't be surprised if we don't make a new new highs in the S&P before this year's out, but it I would tell you it has all the makings of of late stage.

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[1:23] I wouldn't be surprised if we don't get another swoon into the summertime.

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[7:57] certainly the S&P at some point will trade 8,000. I don't think it'll be this year, but I could it certainly could happen.

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[32:18] Well, I think when we when we get to 6%, I think you see the S&P down to probably about 5,500. I I think we see I think we get the sell off that I've been looking for for a while. And I think that it's I think it's coming sooner than we think.

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[17:51] the second year of the presidential cycle tends to be very iffy in the stock market. We had a very good year the first year uh under Trump, but the second year with these midterms coming up and so on, there's a great deal of uncertainty. I'd just be surprised to see the stock market uh move substantially higher one way or another. I think it's just going to be a sluggish and difficult year.

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[30:50] It wouldn't surprise me to make one another new high before you finish this thing up in the S&P. Maybe go up over 8,000 or something.

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[5:36] these second years of these presidential terms tend to be low return years a lot of times. But the key point to them is they swoon in the middle of the year. That's when you you get declines into the summer, you know, June, July, sometimes early August, and then you then going toward election, you always get this feverish uptick.

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[0:00] if you want to take a few chips off the table for the next six months, understanding that we could have these short-term surges, short-term declines, we could very much end up where we were, you know, at the end of the year where we are today. But we're probably gonna have more volatility and more reason to take just a cautious approach.

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[11:46] I think that's a constant headwind that the market is going to be dealing with all year.

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[9:18] I think by the end of the year it's going to just be a big red candle in stock market following what's guiding us in cryptos following the lessons of volatility and massive speculation with all this, you know, all these IPOs and things.

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[2:06] I think we're in a a uh a prolonged um topping process in the stock market. That's taken longer obviously than I thought it would take for it to play out. Um especially with this latest move in semiconductors, this this kind of final blowoff phase I think is what we're kind of in the midst of. I still do think this is all kind of in the midst of a major topping process.

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[17:16] I have a potential head and shoulder topping pattern activated since yesterday. Um, we are seeing the largest IPO ever, SpaceX and Wall Street has changed all the rules to make sure that now retail can benefit because the institutionals apparently are not uh having enough interest anymore... I think stock market totally overvalued.

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[12:22] I do, but more so that the S&P P plays catch-up. So, so for instance, I think you might see a little outperformance on Bitcoin. That doesn't mean both are going to go up. What it to me would mean would be that the S&P actually starts to play catch-up um to the downside and maybe Bitcoin doesn't fall percentage-wise quite as much.

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[20:56] I would say that's a very low probability scenario. The reason I say that is that ultimately we have now broken a key ups sloping trend line from the lows of March... these are beginning signals that you may be entering a downtrend period.

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[21:52] I would just caution if you look at midterms, there's usually a sell-off in the summer before the midterms. There's other factors also inclusive of the overbought semis that probably bring this market back in a little bit.

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[15:23] I'm expecting 40 to 60%. You said it in the headline. And I'm not expecting it in one day nor tomorrow. But at the end of the day, if you're a true investor and investing money that you can afford, there's really nothing you should do other than learn how to hedge your portfolio or let it sit

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[4:51] I am still bullish on this share in the stock market. I think 8,000 to 8,400.

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[31:41] Earnings are going to grow 15 to 16%. By uh 16% this year in the S&P, 15 next year by 2031. And why do I pick 31? That's where 100% tax deduction of capex is ends. I can see $650 worth of earnings on the S&P 500.

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[27:53] maybe the stock market continues making new nominal highs. I mean, I, you know, I've kind of given up on being a bear on the stock market.

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[29:30] our technical work says that the stock market has been in a topping process for a year, more than a year... our argument is on long-term metrics that right now the thing to watch for is any not a collapse, but any move that gets you back down, let's say by the end of the quarter, especially early next quarter. So, three, four weeks from now, gets you back down to 7,000 or lower, especially getting back below that price ceiling that we had.

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[7:55] if you were to like get an inheritance and put your $1 million inheritance in the stock market today, you're likely guaranteed a 0% return including dividends for 10 years, which incl which implies a a tremendous draw down between now and then.

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[31:40] the index has as much chance of making money in the next 10 years statistically as the man on the moon. If you go back and look at every time that the index is in the situation it is now, and then look 10 years later, it it it 72 to 82, 99 to09, you lost money. You lost money counting dividends in the index for 10 years. the chance of the index making money over the next 10 years statistically from historical mathematical Schiller cape GDP to stock market value the Buffett indicator I don't care which indicator you they're all telling you the same thing there's no chance for the S&P 500 to do well

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[4:02] we've been warning particularly in the last couple of weeks that the US stock market was looking a little precarious, at least on a near-term basis with very poor breadth.

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[19:21] I think 6,000 is probably a very reasonable level that I think we could see the S&P 500 hit.

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[22:18] it is saying we could potentially work our way up to 8500 which from where that is today that's another you know 11 12%.

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[18:26] their margins will get bigger and bigger and that's probably going to prop up the stock market a little bit more because the stock market isn't the stock market. It's just the best companies in the S&P 500.

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[6:24] if you look at the proportion of the S&P 500 that is trading above 20 times earnings is over 80% over 80% of all the market cap in the S&P 500 has a more than 20 times earnings price tag on it. the last time that happened uh briefly in the zero interest rate environment during the pandemic but before that all the way back to the dotcom boom and so um we are at a period right now uh widespread uh you know broadly in the market where you have overvaluation risk

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[7:24] this is telling us we should see RSP the equal weighted stock market based on the current price at 208. It should actually run up to about 217. It's about a 4% move.

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[4:56] the one thing I would say as far as where where I would turn neutral to even negative uh without any particular signal is if you get if you get a full measured move extension on this current swing and in terms of the June S&P that would be about 7850 or so. So uh we're at 7621 uh 7850. So you know another another 200 230 points would be a complete measured move extension and that would certainly say the market should be near uh at or near an exhaustion point

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[12:13] I think that's starting to uh create, you know, potentially a pretty bearish brew for sometime um in early 2027.

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[5:33] we're certainly going to have a pullback in the market. So what this is is this is a Fibonacci retracement. And and if you're not fi familiar with Fibonacci retracement levels... a retracement of you know back to kind of the 50% retracement level which you would kind of expect after such a big advance. Not saying that's got to happen but and that's where the previous breakout high was. So it' be a retracement of the previous breakout. That's about a 7 and a half% decline from here.

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[28:37] the fundamental underpinnings of the market suggest markets will be higher by the end of this year, but you're going to have a correction most likely between now and and then.

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[2:28] I think it's going to happen again probably longer and deeper.

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[15:21] At some point that's going to reverse. I don't know when, but it seems like it may be starting and it's one of the most underinvested parts of the globe.

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[26:16] I think we finished the year at a much higher level from a stock market standpoint than we are today but that doesn't mean we can't have a let's call it 10 to 15% draw down between now and then as a function of central banks reaction function uh getting incrementally hawkish

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[18:25] you merge that with the SpaceX at the same time. That's your recipe for a little bit of a pullback. Maybe not a correction but 3 four 5% something along those lines here coming off these all-time highs.

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[25:33] we're going to see rotation out of the big US growth tech names, tech growth names, and into things that have lagged uh primarily for foreign markets, but also for value stocks, for smaller stocks, and and and so on.

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[12:12] It's going to continue at an accelerating rate which is why bond yields will rise, equity markets will collapse, sell them in May go away and um precious metals will have the appearance of rising whereas in fact they're just maintaining their value.

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[20:58] I do think we're we're going to get a big decline in the stock market at some point. you know, we're at nosebleed valuations uh in a in a big AI uh tech bubble uh that's at some point going to burst.

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[11:34] we are still playing for more upside. The economy still um is still chugging along. It's not gang busters, but doing well. The corporate profits, as we talked about, are phenomenal right now. We've got technicals still good. So, we're still playing from the long side.

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[1:10] He believes that we're on the cusp of a lost decade plus in nominal equity returns and meaningful real losses if investors keep using the same old 40-year buy the dip stayong growth playbook.

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[0:38] higher interest rates leads to multiple contraction and profit margin contraction... about 75% of businesses have profit margins collapse as inflation gets going. And yes, revenue increases, but the actual profit margin decreases.

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[7:13] the case Schiller um uh measure of valuation of the S&P 500 is at its second highest level above normal valuations in history. So if you go back 150 years, there's only been one time when the case uh measure of valuation was any higher in relative term. So yes, we are late stage and we are um you know seeing that final uh stages of blowoff in asset markets.

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[10:14] history tells us that it's a lot closer because typically during this midterm election cycle between May and October we have averaged about an 18% selloff in that period of time.

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[15:08] I think the American market is in a bubble now, which is a very risky situation and also a highly profitable one, but you are guaranteed that there'll be a crash. It's just a question of when and I think that's about 2 years away.

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[16:25] Yeah, I think that that is exactly what what I believe is likely to continue to happen. This this enormous discrepancy between what people perceive about the real economy and what they see in markets. No. uh and and and it's and all and and that means higher markets, higher indices

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[27:34] all those things that are macro are are absolutely correct... it is better to have an overweight position in US stocks relative to others that are also interesting but don't and also the units of risk that you need to take in order to generate the same returns that you get in the S&P 500 or the NASDAQ in the MSCI world or in the or in the stock 600 uh are much higher.

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[0:00] What I would expect to see sometime in the next three to six months is a healthy 20 to 30% pullback, scary, then a counter trend rally, the Fed starts cutting and then if we're in a bear market that counter trend rally will fail and then we'll go to lower lower lows

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[5:55] I think I think we're going to see the growth scare come and be evident by the end of Q2

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[2:54] I'm talking about obviously you know 30% or more in some of the indexes from here to say that that can happen by Labor Day may sound crazy but that's what a parabolic is is u you know things move pretty fast pretty far.

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[0:52] a surge that could drive gold to $6,800 and silver to $180 before triggering an 80% global bust.

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[17:00] one of my my key theme at the beginning of the year is stock market volatility is just too low compared to the volatility spiking we're seeing in crude oil and gold. We've never had gold like I mentioned earlier volatility run at two times that of the S&P 500 for long. Usually stock market volatility picks up.

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[9:08] I wouldn't be surprised if we're not into another minor down again and then go up again. We're just in that that's what you get a lot of times in these second years of presidential terms.

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[13:18] The United States economically, socially and politically is in far worse shape than any time other than the major declines 2000 n 2008, 2000, 1987 and even 1929... it's time to maybe short the US stock market.

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[34:28] what we have experienced through a combination of two factors the introduction of defined contribution relative to defined benefit and the introduction of passive to facilitate investing in that defined contribution framework are two once in a-lifetime phenomenon that are unlikely to repeat themselves... we are creating conditions where that eventually has to be reversed under demographic features and the higher volatility that emerges. Um, and that's the unpleasant experience. That would be like going... that is the experience of investing in the 1920s versus investing in the 1930s.

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[30:28] we're getting towards the end of that secular bull market period. Valuations are elevated. We've got a lot of exuberance in the markets. um you know there's a whole variety of demographic issues that are going on with the economy that are going to lead up to having this period of low returns for a decade or two

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[17:51] when you open next quarter, one or two of our major long-term metrics, particularly quarterly momentum, will be sitting on a floor that you cannot see on a price chart, but on a momentum chart, if you saw that chart, you'd say, 'Good grief, you better not break that floor.' Because if you do, you're going to implode. And that could be an event that happens later this summer.

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[38:17] I'm not saying it's not going to happen, but I'm just saying there's so many tailwinds right now. It's it's a it's dangerous to just stand in front of that juggernaut until at least you see evidence that things are starting to deteriorate in the big numbers.

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[33:06] that money that they pushed in at that point or whatever they did there that that you can't just pull it back. So that it will drive the market for a few months more but the impact of it the momentum of it the force of it will will slow down and then I'm expecting to see it go straight back on that line that we've seen for so many years

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[13:15] Yeah, I think it's the latter. Yeah, I mean there just isn't a lot of basic support for the economy, US economy as I mentioned earlier in our conversation. And uh as a result, I I think we're very like very likely to have a considerable recession and sell off in in stocks, you know, the whole the whole company apparatus that comes with a weakening economy and recession.

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[32:09] as you get into, uh, fall, particularly near the election or post-election, uh, you have to be incredibly cautious what happens between now and then. Uh, very well could see a little bit more of this.

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[33:07] you see a timing window of of after the summer as more likely.

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[10:27] I think you faded here... if you want to make a market call, which I don't like making, I think I I'd sell out rather than buy it.

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[8:27] valuations in the general equities market now are quite overvalued in my view and I think you'll see a disconnect. you see a reconnection commodities versus the S&P as we probably get some of the air out of this bubble in the markets.

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[35:00] even though I think the stock market's in a bubble, usually bubbles only collapse when monetary policy tightens up. So, so what this means is that well, okay, we're in a bubble. Maybe the bubble isn't going to pop because the money the the monetary policy it's not tightening doesn't appear to be in the cards.

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[25:52] You always have you every so often eight ten years you have a generational bare market. Well, we haven't had one. We've gone longer than normal since 2010 without one. But bare markets don't really crash particularly. They they just roll over real slowly for three or four or five months and then they pick up steam over time. That's why people can't they can't see it. They're just sort of drifting off. And then the last part of that bare market is when it gets really nasty. That's when you lose twothirds of the value.

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[0:00] our conclusion is somewhere between 65% and about 80% the market enters into a stochcastic regime in which the possibility of explosive volatility and a 1987 style crash becomes not a probability but almost a certainty. So we're unfortunately very close. We're gaining about 4% a year in passive share right now. So at that 65% lower level, we're you know 2 and a half years out.

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[14:14] the broad stock market has never been more overvalued than it is today, driven by this AI boom, bubble, whatever you want to call it

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[5:42] The new highs we just saw, I think, are transient. I think it we we we thought it would occur and we thought that probably it would extend into this month and i suspect you may even make higher highs this month than you did last.

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[13:03] multi-year bare trend? Sorry, multi-year bare trend. Yeah. But the question is what does it what is goes with it? What other assets go with it? Where will it how much down will it go? I don't know that I can say that most of the bare markets in US history of the last 100 years last two and a half to three years the dimension of the decline varies. Usually they're at least 50%.

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[4:52] I do think we could see the markets potentially rally another six, seven percent to the upside, the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ, maybe even more than that, depending on the time frame we look at.

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[0:00] What I say longterm is I'm I'm bearish. I do believe we're coming into a huge market correction and it's going to devastate most investors.

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[5:57] The S&P 500 could move all the way up to about 8,500. And so that is a obviously a very significant move. That is about a 20% move.

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[14:15] I predict that many of the grammar stocks of today they're going to be down 50% 80% 90%. And you know that's that's based on history. Okay? This is not just an extreme valuation based on history. This is what happens to the high-f flyers uh during big bare markets.

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[28:55] I think when the the stock market has a 30 to 50% correction, it's going to pull gold, silver down with it.

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[17:40] I think you can kind of pull back a little bit and be a little bit cautious. So even today, right, the S&P's not doing quite as well as the, you know, semiconductor.

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[18:03] if you think we are going to have um the the positive effects of the the rate cuts that commenced 19 months ago. I would theorize and I have theorized and I've got the charts out there on X that you could see the rate of growth on S&P 500 profits peak out in the out years of this decade

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[14:04] Um I do suspect that we, you know, potentially give back probably 3 to 5% of the 12% maybe that we have done. So that likely could happen between now and the middle part of May if what I'm thinking is correct.

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[21:04] I expect the markets are going to rally really into the latter part of July probably mid August. I think it's actually going to be a pretty decent uh rally.

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[24:44] I I don't view those as being uh something that add a lot of value for people. Uh honestly, if I had to give people something that I thought might be a better sticking point as to my views is that this year is going to be a choppy year uh full of both declines and also big sharp advances and and but I think the market ends higher.

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[8:30] And what I predict's going to happen is in my generation, I'm a Trump and I are the same age. We wrote two books together. This one here is Trump and myself. And we're very concerned about what's going to happen. is it's like you know that the cartoon Peanuts with Charlie Brown and Lucy where Lucy holds the football and she says come on Charlie Brown come on kick the ball and Charlie Brown says no you're going to pull it away from me no I won't so Charlie Brown winds up and Lucy convinces that she won't pull the football away and Charlie Brown goes charging ahead kicks she pulls the football away and he falls in his butt that's what they're going to do to the boomers because in 1974 was the petro dollar when we guaranteed Saudi Arabia we protect them and also 1974. So I look I look at this from the most pessimistic point of view possible. my generation and boomer generation is being set up because when this S&P 500 blows and crashes, then we're going to be more homeless people than ever before and there'll be boomers who one time had jobs and had money and they're going to steal their wealth via the pension.

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[25:32] wait for the stock market to crash because if this takes off the way I think it will, that market will eventually catch up with reality.

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[14:34] the death cross, I think, is going to be right around 5,500 on the S&P. So the S&P goes below 5,500, gold goes above it. That's the death cross.

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[2:24] the markets are threatening and pushing up to maybe hit all-time highs here in the um next couple of sessions.

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[28:41] You can see here the S&P 500 has potential to rally another 10 or so percent. And then if it if it continues from there, we could see it go another 20%.

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[2:14] I would be surprised if over the next two quarters we don't have some more weakness back. It doesn't mean doesn't mean a bare market. It just means that wouldn't surprise me to go back where we were earlier.

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[0:20] I think this economy, especially in the second half of the year when a lot of the short-term stimulus falls by the wayside, uh is going to be showing some significant strain.

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[0:00] We are nowhere near a bare market. Not not even by a moonshot close.

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[28:41] S&P 500 up or down by the end of the year? Up.

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[1:29] we think that the fundamental condition of US stocks remains very good and in fact if you take two steps back and think about the weakness that we've seen in several areas of US stocks namely tech stocks uh stocks have become more attractive from a valuation standpoint number one but what's really interesting David is that earnings growth and earnings estimates for the S&P 500 in certain sectors including tech uh financials would be another one have actually gone up since we talked class. So I think this malaise, the conflict is yet again some noise that investors with respect to emotions and fear are driving them hopefully uh not but they do drive uh investors to make uh snap decisions on selling equities. We clearly do not believe that that's the right thing to be doing right now. And we do believe that uh the US market will continue to be on pace for this bull market number one. But number two is part of this big 25 year secular bull market that we've been calling for since 2009.

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[5:02] I'm still looking longer term for that 40 to 60% haircut in the markets. I do think that we're going to go into a bare market. I do think that we are going significantly lower.

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[11:55] I believe this rally is not like any of the previous rallies we had... this will be a much more sustained rally in the long term once we get rid of the uh negative headwinds uh of of the daily uh headlines

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[23:53] I can confidently predict with with great sorrow and dismay that the returns going forward will not be any clo anywhere close to 7% in real terms.

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[1:45] So, I kind of see the path of the stock market being like that. probably will end up at a lower level at the end of this year than where we are today.

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[19:38] Yeah, I think the market overall is going lower, but there are places in the market that are that are outperforming dramatically.

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[0:00] And I still think this will turn out to be a 10 to 15% correction. And we're halfway through that and that it it could could happen in this week or or next week.

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[17:59] and uh uh you know I'm I'm still using 7700 uh by by the end of u of the of the year

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[8:43] I think that it's going to be very hard for the market to break through that ceiling between now and the midterms. Um, wouldn't shock me at all if we go back up to kind of those highs or or if we just go sideways for a while. But I think it's going to be very hard to break out of that, you know, sideways channel uh between now and the election.

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[8:08] I don't think this is something that takes us to new highs because of that major worry.

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[33:34] And I don't think we're going to move in a fundamentally new direction until the bottom falls out of the market. And I think that's coming.

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[15:24] Logic dictates we probably are coming back to that $5700 target, which would be the low end of the parallel. And I would argue that that's a year-end or early 2027 target

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[12:35] And guess what? Eight to 10% is what JP Morgan thinks the S&P will do between now and the end of the year. Their year-end target was 7500. They lowered it to 7200. We're at 6600.

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[22:15] the first crash is the fastest and hardest. Stocks will go down 40 to 50% in two to four months. In other words, it's they're going to go down 80 or 90 because bubbles don't go down 50% like normal bare markets

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[9:25] it does appear to us, yeah, that we could be in for a bit of a retrenchment in the markets just based upon fundamentals

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[30:25] So, you can see this market rally back above the 200 day moving average next week. Uh get back to 6720, 6750 in there, that wouldn't be surprising at all.

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[0:06] Like this is the beginning of the third 50% draw down in the S&P 500 since 2000.

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[28:50] by 1981 49% of the S&P 500's composition was in materials industrials and energy 49%. We're right now maybe 14. We're nowhere near I Are we going back to 49? No. But are we going at 25 30? Yes.

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[25:48] we're going to get a rally maybe starting in the next week or so that goes through April and then we're going to get into summer, which is premidterm elections. I'd expect a lot more chop and volatility during the summer, get through till we get through the midterm elections and then a rally into year end.

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[10:17] it wouldn't surprise me at all if we were down in the next, you know, let's say 6 weeks 8 to 15%.

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[18:46] I think it's going to last long enough for the market to go down. Okay. And then that market going down will force Trump to basically T.A.C.O..

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[8:33] the stock market is in a bubble. It's in bubble territory and and it wasn't in bubble territory in 1978. The the PE ratio was eight. Now it's you know up in 29 28.

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[12:27] I would think the markets will want to run uh somewhere all the way up to we could very easily see it the S&P 500 run up to like um 600 and or 6,945 somewhere up here.

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[24:47] 8,000. So, think about it. We've had that big, we've had a big broad-based rally that we were expecting. Now what we need if we get technology kicking in then you get the mag seven kicking in and driving that that S&P higher. Yes.

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[6:12] And again, I'm looking at a downside move by mid year back to about 6,100 on the S&P. That would be our first major technical support.

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[7:10] my guess is is even though we'll have plenty of bounces eventually we do find our way all the way down to 5600 or so on the S&P

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[6:15] my advice has been, and it's been on record, that we were going to potentially ek slightly over 50,000. There'd be a celebration by the don't worry happy crowd on Wall Street. Little did I know that the attorney general would create a new stock sale signal for the next generation with her Dow 50,000 comment. But you're right, it's rolling over. I believe the major top has been put in and I believe we're going to go into a more consolidated sideways to down movement for the rest of the year in the stock market.

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[0:00] I think the next year and a half you're going to have new highs and recent new lows in the market both.

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[15:59] which is out of what we could probably be getting 1.2 trillion of buybacks in total for S&P 500 this year. So, which is growth over last year.

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[0:00] 2026 is the year of the shakeout. There will be places to hide. It's just they'll be fairly defensive in nature.

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[32:52] Last three months we've been arguing it's got to continue up though. Get above 7,000 which it did today but probably even more probably at least get into February before it decides to roll over again. But we think it's a broad topping process of major proportions. is going into a massive bare market

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[10:39] I don't think we're going to get that pronounced of a draw down or average draw down this year because you do have uh a level of fiscal stimulus coming through in the form of tax returns jumping 40 50% uh you know 50 some odd billion dollars going in consumer's pockets and you are in an easing cycle

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[24:26] We're strong through April, very weak into the election, recovery year end.

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[3:47] So the markets are likely to gap lower, potentially even lower from today. And I think we could see bargain hunters step back in and buy things back up. So again, it's a news-driven move. I you can't really trust news-driven moves. And um same same with price gaps. The gap in prices should rebound. So, that's what I'm expecting to happen uh probably Tuesday and Wednesday as the market stabilizes and recovers from this little news-driven bout of selling.

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[14:34] Now, it's not a whole lot of upside from where it is right now. It's about um as of today, you and I are speaking, it's about 4 and a.5% to the upside. So, uh, that's 7,225

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[7:34] I think we're getting closer and closer, like weeks potentially from a major market top.

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[39:39] with all this pressure Trump is putting on them, the Fed has pivoted towards loosening. And that means that the stock market bubble will probably stay with us.

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[4:45] it implies that yes we could see a pullback uh in the S&P 500 like we did today because the top 41 uh uh AI related stocks comprise 47% of the S&P. So you do have this huge concentration and if that sector gets weak that becomes problematic for the S&P

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[12:06] the technical underpinnings right now suggest decline should be somewhere between 3 and 7%.

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[12:57] I expect to see 40 to 60% in the equities. And I'm not saying it'll be all next year, but I think over the the next run will be 40 to 60% lower.

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[28:07] The uh S&P 500 90% and the NASDAQ 95%. If we just go back to the last major low

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[5:49] I think the big thing that's coming is a significant unwind of the AI trade. And whether that's actually the AI bubble popping and a and a waterfall event in the markets or something a little less harmful, I'm not sure.

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[15:28] I think next year is going to be a down year for the total return. I don't know how much maybe reverting towards 5,000 S&P 500.

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[36:56] my view, which I've been saying for some months now, is that 2026 is likely at best to be a rangebound market for the S&P

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[5:01] That said, there is a huge bifurcation in our economy in the sense of the bottom 50% of people have been under the gun for probably four years as the cost of living ramped up. Their incomes haven't kept up um pace with that. uh the top 10% of wage earners represent almost 50% of spending and they're deriving their confidence from what's happening in the financial markets namely the stock market uh and so forth. So you have this split screen if you will where the top segment of the uh economy is doing really well. They're kind of carrying the water for the rest of the economy. That's why I think if we see a protracted bare market, which is my expectation, David, sometime over the next window of time, we're going to enter a secular bare market.

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[29:27] My bet would be seasonality is usually very favorable. Um the selling pressure that we've seen hit some of the AI related stocks. Some of these stocks are down 20 30%. Um so my bet would be David is we'll see another rally as we go into end of this year early next year.

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[3:25] I'm in the camp that the stock market has topped for at least a 10% 15% correction.

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[11:31] going into 2026. I think it's going to be a totally different story.

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[19:17] I think we're walking through a landmine and I think we're very close to the markets going for a nose dive.

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[20:39] My baseline is the firewall will hold and we'll get to the other side of this 6 n 12 months down the road. We'll get some monetary fiscal stimulus and the economy should regain some traction. We should avoid recession.

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[19:41] what should you expect stocks to return you over the next say 5 to 10 years about 6%.

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[14:54] The daily data are suggesting down in the near term as well into October, November.

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[39:08] there's an upside target around 680 SPY. So, this this target is showing us we've got about 3% upside.

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[25:35] I don't think they'll get anywhere close to hitting the numbers there. They're looking at 16% the estimates out there for increased earnings in 26. I don't think there's a a chance they can make that.

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[25:51] I think the US stock market is is potentially reaching the point the tipping point where where it will where the leaders will roll over and we'll see a a correction in the S&P. Uh I'm not looking for a crash or collapse but we'll probably get rotation out of those leaders

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[21:09] well here's my base case I started out the year I think this is going to be a down year for the stock market in the beginning of the third 50% draw down in the S&P 500 since the start of um since 2000.

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[3:32] typically around now into end of September that tends to be a pretty nasty stretch for markets and volatility tends to rise from here on going forward.

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[11:19] I think there's more likely to be um you know downside surprises we let go out of the next six months

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[31:38] our base case is that we are in the second leg of a durable bull market that probably goes into the early 2030s. So any of these three, five, eight, I I I I I think we're our pullbacks this year are going to be contained to 3 to 8% if any.

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[37:16] 5800. Yeah, definitely based on what I'm seeing in the charts. Um, doesn't mean we can't get close to 7,000, but we'd have to fight through a lot of these big resistance levels at this point. And right now, again, it looks like the markets ignoring some of this good news with Nvidia.

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[34:17] If you're coming in now looking at these markets, you're chasing tops. That doesn't mean they can't go for two more years. If the Fed is supportive or if there's liquidity at the banks or if there's backdoor QE that keeps these bond markets and these yields compressed, they don't get above 5%. It's risk on.

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[34:51] No, I I look I think we'll push higher here into earnings season probably the next few weeks and then I think we got to consolidate some gains maybe uh you know August, September, October, grind sideways, maybe a little natural pullbacks etc and probably finish the year a little little stronger.

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[3:25] I think we're seeing a pretty different circumstance right now which is expectations for future growth that are priced into the stock market are very high uh and remain very high and makes sense. you know, prices are basically at all-time highs, but at the same time, you're seeing a pretty rapid deceleration in the actual economic stats. And that sort of divergence suggests that we might be seeing uh a season of disappointment ahead when it comes to how the economy will perform relative to expectations.

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[0:32] I think the market still has upside to to go. Yes. Um I don't know that it's going to come necessarily this minute or this day. Sorry, I just want to turn my phone. Um but I think that certainly the second half of the year, uh there's a good chance that the market's going to go higher

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[17:20] I think the regime uncertainty will lead eventually to what? Looking ahead, it'll lead to a more serious slowdown and a recession in the United States. And with a recession, of course, you have topline revenues going down, margins going down, profits going down, and and you know, the stock market that the pees are going to come down.

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[19:01] I've been terming these the four, five, six markets that over the next several years, cash will return you 4%, bonds will return you around five, and stocks because of their high valuation will return you around six.

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[12:22] I still think that at some point the bottom is going to fall out of this market and we will see a major drop... this market goes down 10, 20, 30%.

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[10:36] I I would say this rollover should be should be starting to happen somewhere right up here. I think we could potentially push a little bit higher. I think somewhere between where we are right now and maybe just breaking to new all-time highs nominally for a few days or something. I think I think we're in this this zone for the market to roll over.

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[4:43] this is still a bounce and it's sucking investors and traders in, uh, just before it's probably going to roll over and I think head a whole lot lower

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[12:33] I think in the near term the stock market is going to be strong.

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[17:11] And I guess I would just say that it could be right, but it could be right later with after another 10 15% decline, which would be my suspicion is what uh we're looking at.

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[3:06] Our base case scenario is that we are in what we've been saying is a W-shaped market in a U-shaped economy. And what I mean by that is that if you think about the shape of a W, we're sort of on the inside left of the W. And we're expecting over the next one to two quarters that the markets will eventually have to uh sell off again and price in the inside right of the W

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[12:23] we're looking at potentially a 15% to another 23 24% drop to the downside. Uh, From where we are right now.

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[13:50] I think we're in a bare market in US stock market. It's early days. I think it'd be we'd be delightful if we end this this year not down 20% or more.

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[0:00] You are going to see the equities which rallied yesterday and today they are going to tank again in a big way.

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[6:47] I expect the market to hit the 7500 or so in 27.

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[14:16] we could see it pull back to about 4600 all the way down to about 4100. So in in the reality from the ultimate highs we're looking at about a 25 uh to roughly 30% pullback

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[29:43] Do you think that the worst is behind us for equities volatility? Oh, no. I I think things things are just warming up

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[5:17] I think the skew is definitely still negative into April earnings.

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[0:17] we're we're probably going at best case we're going into recession. Stock markets are going to go down more.

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[2:07] I think we are in striking distance in the next uh more or less week or two uh to actually enter bare market territory. And if we take a look at the S&P 500 using technical analysis, using a Fibonacci extension, which tells us based on the current price action, the past price action, where price should go, that is going to give us where the full downside target is, which is about 15 uh 5183 on the SP500

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[6:39] I think we're we're primed and ready for another 50 plus percent selloff breaking the 2022 lows on the on the S 500

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[4:51] we should have some type of bounce up into like March 24th March 25th area

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[11:46] I I'd say likely for short-term rally now... so it might it could be get a nice sharp rally May last two days five days 10 days it may take some indices back up to the above the previous highs in on a minor basis but at this point don't think I don't think that we're going to see um continuation of the bull market

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[10:48] we're probably bothering at this time... based on probability we have to say we're probably bothering at this time

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[20:41] the likely evidence is that we'll see much lower lows before this is over but the current lad that you're seeing is not likely to be the a a a not like to be a continuation it's likely there'll be a a break and the market will rally back before the market continues lower

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