S&P 500 Predictions

[1:20] I could see us heading to about 8,000. But the key factors here are is that we saw the PCE data, which is inflation data. It came in a little bit better than expected... And I think that's where we're probably headed by year end. I would even wonder if we could get there by the midterms.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[1:07:20] Overall outlook: material equity correction ahead, bonds as a safer ride

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[14:14] historically speaking, from October the 1st through December 31st, in a year where the market is up 10% at least through the middle of the year and in years where the first quarter was a negative return and the pos and the second quarter was more than a 10% rate of return, both both of those have been put to have been met. The fourth quarter tends to yield about a 6.6% average rate of return in a midterm election year.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[17:55] in any combination of government. The returns for the S&P over the next 12 months have been positive. Right now, it's shaping up that Democrats will take the House and the Senate, and you'll have a Republican president, which is the lowest expected rate of return out of all the possible combinations.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[26:16] expected real returns on stocks is going to be somewhere between -2 and 2% over the next decade, right? So I can buy a 10-year Treasury at 5.3 and nearly double my rate of return on stocks for the next decade. That's just what valuations tell you.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[12:34] My my current S&P target is 10,000. So, I'm not sure where we were last time we spoke, but I'm at 10,000 on the S&P. Um 36,000 on NASDAQ, 70,000 on the Dow, and 4,000 on the Russell. So, if you do the numbers on those, you know, they're basically between 30 and probably the Russell's over 40% now from here. Um, so those are big still big moves up. I think they'll be in a steep rally. So they can happen in the matter of just a few months or it might, you know, might take longer than that. I'm not trying to predict a specific end, but I think we're within 3 to 6 months of a top in the stock market.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[18:08] So, if I'm right on 10,000 on the S&P, I wouldn't be surprised to see that down as much as 80%. Uh, which would take you to 2,000 uh in a bare market that follows this. So, I don't have any precise timing that says, okay, it starts right after the beginning of the year or anything like that. You got to top out first. But from wherever that top is, I believe we're looking at the biggest bare market we've had post 20 post 1929.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[10:04] What changed my mind in the last 3 days, that's when it's changed for our clients and my readers, is that we're now seeing great deterioration underneath that one group that's doing well... when you see weakness and less and less participation, it's usually a good sign minimally of a serious correction coming or a major change of foot.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[39:02] I do think that, uh, as I said, to me, the echoes to 1987, I know that it's not a a perfect parallel. nothing ever is. Um, but it really strikes me that uh the stock market is being far too insientent about the rise in interest rates, especially in so far as the whole AI trade is really contingent on endless supply of credit. Um, and you are starting to see some some tightening of credit conditions as you mentioned with the spreads rising in the CDS and um, so I do think that it will be more of a dramatic event.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[18:29] I still think there's a major meltdown coming. But at the end of the day and I think the interest rates may be the the the crucial thing that pushes them over the top if we do get the 6% but right now you have no participation in these markets.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[25:10] Certainly, I if we got the 8,000 S&P, it would not surprise me one bit.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[18:45] anything above 7575 on the S&P, I remain bullish. Um in terms of targets, it's very simple how I come up with this target... we're only about 1 and 1/2, 1.37, 1.75% away. So, we could hit that before the midterms very, very easily. In fact, in the next couple weeks.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[0:03] I would say that in the next two to four weeks, you're going to have some kind of a panic oh my god moment. And that will probably be a good opportunity to deploy capital.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[7:57] most pockets of the US equity markets feel very expensive for me and feel um you know especially expensive if we if we are looking at a higher interest rates environment right now. Um, if you think at think about the S&P right now, you know, over half of the index by market cap is trading above 10 times sales, price to sales. You know, over any time frame in history, you know, that is a tough starting point from which you can expect decent positive IRRs over a 3, five, 10 year time spectrum.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[8:53] I think we would need several years of underperformance versus the rest of the world um before a lot of those dollars would leave your shores. um which leads me to believe that there'll be some some some forced rotation within markets away from those 10 times price to sales players you know into the broader index

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[9:07] my favorite expression within US equities right now is to be long the equal weight the RSP versus the triple Q's right

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[0:00] 2027 is going to be a very should be a very difficult year for the stock market and in the bond market. There's a small chance that 2027 won't be a disaster, but it's very likely that it's going to be a disaster.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[4:12] There's no possible way that would happen without a 20 to 30% correction in the NASDAQ and the S&P next year.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[0:00] This is going to be a crash that is going to mirror 1929. The markets are way overvalued as you point out.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[48:49] if you look at the expected return on the S&P 500 over the next 10 years it's re it's you know it's in it's mathematical uh proposition. This is not something I made up or anybody makes up. The expected return on the S&P 500 is close to zero over the next 10 years because the last 10 years the return has been much much higher than the long run historical average.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[3:43] Usually and statistically the the stock markets have a rather difficult time until this election because it creates a lot of uncertainty. We're seeing the bond prices rising. We've seen the yields rising and um precious metals have sold off to the beginning of this week. Uh my thinking is still that probably after the midterm elections things will calm down a little bit and we might get a good end of the year rally in the stock market maybe

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[0:00] I both long bonds and short stocks is because I do expect higher interest rates for longer, a hiking cycle to start at least cooling some of the expectations. And with that, you'd see those positions work out pretty quickly.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[27:33] the correction that has to happen just to bring prices back to you know equilibrium is about is over 50% on equity prices and about 25 to 30% at a minimum in the real estate market

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[18:11] the chance of the S&P being higher 10 years from now than it is right now is almost zero from a mathematical probability standpoint. and and you can use almost any valuation you want to use and it's all going to bring you to the same exact conclusion.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[6:09] these interest rates are going to go up until the fever breaks. And the two places the two things that'll happen is they will go get money from where it is and that is the 20 largest stocks in the S&P 500 which will ruin the S&P index trade and it will ruin the trade in those stocks.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[19:58] a lot of experts are talking about, you know, an imminent market collapse, uh, stock market crash, you know, by or no later than mid-October.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[0:02] 2027 is 2022, but potentially a lot worse because we have a lot more bubbles and the Fed's going to make a major policy mistake, invert the yield curve, and then have to cut interest rates. I expect parts of the market to be crashing before you get a full-blown one like 2022.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[19:32] My best guess is that this might be a oneanddone type thing with the Fed. They raise 0.25%. Maybe in the next couple months we get some kind of market top. We think we might get a blowoff top in the market.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[24:08] some kind of market top in the next, who knows, six months in stocks, some kind of big draw down or drop. The Fed comes in, does more QE or at least signals it, and rates go down to maybe three on the 10-year in the next year or two.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[36:09] I just think the upside in markets is very limited and the downside is potentially quite significant.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[5:17] the index trade uh has been a great trade but that just means it's getting long on the tooth and there's an inordinate number of companies relatively small number of companies I should say that are carrying the um high valuations that are influencing these indexes. So you want to be very careful what you're buying.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[2:39] If inflation is going to remain a little higher that means price earnings ratio should actually come down. that puts pressure on valuations. And so if you're an investor, you're saying, I want to be careful what I'm paying for valuations because if uh if inflation is going up, that means interest rates have to be going up.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[0:00] We're moving the 8,400 uh for the S&P 500 at the end of this year into the middle of next year. Just think it's going to take us a bit longer here.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[16:36] my my my roaring 2020 scenario had been 80% subjective probability. Now it's 70%. Uh the bucket that the other scenario where everything that can can go wrong is in there, including a debt crisis, I went from 20 to 30%.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[34:09] at this point in time, it's going to be tech, it's going to be healthcare and energy. Those would be my three areas that I see.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[27:26] This could be another two or three years out. I suspect more of once we get to the to the 2030s is probably where we're going to start to see the next secular period.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[18:34] I think we're in the middle of a bull market. Um this golden era of technology, and we need to take full advantage. I'm fully invested. I I'm 100% invested.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[23:31] I believe we're going to see and I think that I don't think we're going down 40 to 60% this year, but I think the selling starts and I think it starts relatively soon within the next four to five weeks. I start think we start to see these markets breaking down through the support that they have held for years and I think we start to see some pretty major damage starting taking place in the market.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[30:37] But as long as the market continues to go along, we could, you know, we could see stocks continue to move higher. But it's not real. It's not real. So in that sense the E in the price to earnings ratio the earnings and the price to earnings ratio is very much at risk.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[0:00] I am not bullish today, but I am looking for the moment probably within the next week to turn bullish and then I'm going to be bullish as all get out.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[3:28] we're about to head into year three, which is a wonderful time for the stock market. In fact, it's nearly always up... absent conditions like that, you can count on the third year being an upyear.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[24:01] somewhere out in 2028 is when we should expect the seven-year type top to arrive.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[0:13] I think gold and silver goes up, markets are going to go down and the worst of all is that uh there's more likely because the wealth will not be distributed fairly and there will be a lot more violence in the streets.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[1:16] the Schiller cape ratio for the S&P 500 is at 42 point something. And any time that it has been 35 or higher, every single time, the forward 10-year return in real terms, so versus in inflation adjusted has been negative. And the most common one has been about -5 real perom. So if inflation is going to be 2%, if Kevin Worsh is going to guide us to two two and stay there, that would mean you should expect negative returns on a nominal basis for the next 10 years and there are no exceptions to it.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[17:58] I think the markets are going to rally tomorrow if Jerome Powell stays the course, raises and stays relatively hawkish.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[17:36] What we can see here on the S&P 500 is that we are right into a major trend line here around 7575 on the S&P that as long as we stay above this I remain bullish on the markets.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[20:06] If we break below 7,400, that's when I would get very very concerned. That's a major trend line that goes all the way back to the peak of the bull market in 2021. And if we break below that, we likely head all the way down to 7,000.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[19:39] Between now and midterms, I'm very negative on the market overall, which means I don't want to be involved in anything.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[20:41] I'm short stocks and I'm long oil and I'm surprised the stock market isn't down much more today... I'm long put spreads on on on QQQ and then I'm long on out of money uh basically uh put on on on on spot. I mean both of them basically expired before midterm elections because I do think that this is between now and the midterm is when I think things are going to get most interesting again.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[15:30] If I'm looking over the next three to four years, I might be a little bit more cautious only because there we are we are very extended above long-term means. We're going to have a correction of some sort over the next I would say within the next five years.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[17:04] if you take a look at where the market is today you get a reversion to the mean that takes you back roughly to 2000ish 2500ish on on the S&P. So that's that's a pretty meaningful correction from 7,000.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[20:43] there's a lot of support for this continuation of the bull market over the next year or two or three. Now eventually that that spending is going to fade and when that spending fades a lot of this earnings are going to revert to the mean.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[3:49] this is going to be a major potential sweep against Republicans... And what does it mean for markets? Bottom line, that's always what it means for markets. For me, as neutral as possible. And my thought is this is going to be very contentious midterm election year. last two midterm election years, markets were down 2018 2022 in mid um in um S&P 500 total return.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[27:23] I see a scenario like that um happening and that's why I'm completely worried I would say very worried about touching the stock market and I just look at that 5% bond treasuries is a place to be.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[32:12] this might all pan out by the end of the year and midterms can be a good trigger.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[2:02] I'm I'm still very constructive for the next 12 months, but there's speed bumps ahead.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[2:38] we started this year expecting uh sometime later this year. So I guess now we're in the later part for there to be a market drawdown

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[2:10] September is the wor and most people think it's October. I believe it's September. Uh historically that is the worst month of the stock market equities.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[3:06] I wouldn't be a betting man against calm and uh you know I wouldn't be betting the house on it being calm and and orderly heading into the end of the year. That's for sure.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[0:16:51] this bull market in assets will come to an end. There's no question about this. Uh at what point it will come to an end. We don't know precisely. It could be tomorrow and it could be in 5 years or even 10 years. But it will happen uh one way or the other.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[7:34] that's going to be the big challenge uh for the equity market filling expectations of the S&P moving to 8,000 or higher by the end of the year.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[19:21] Yeah, both the um earnings estimates come down and the multiple compresses and uh I think there's a very good chance that's going to happen. and I would have no problem uh formulating that uh as as a base case.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[0:30] if you're expecting a 10, 15, 20% decline. I think that's getting rung out of the market because of this consolidation, but a correction back to the 50-day moving average, maybe the 100 day moving average, which would be 3 to 5%. Certainly isn't off the table right now.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[6:13] I think we're still going to see the overall equities market pick up and take off.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[12:19] we could see the S&P 500 run about 3 and a half to, you know, about 6 or so% for that next leg higher. So that's kind of the short-term bias.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[12:46] it could run all the way up to about 8,500 and change, right? So, based on that chart pattern, let's just draw that out. So, you've got the run up, you've got the pullback, and then it's going to work itself all the way up potentially up into this 8,500 mark.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[37:44] We're in the bottom of a bubble. So ride the bubble. Try to get out before the bust... I think two years is is kind of where we're at. But, you know, when the prices start to go vertical and everybody's saying what a genius they are, I'll be saying get out, but we're not there yet. Not that for a long time.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[28:00] when the collapse phase so stock exchanges are going down 50 60 70% which could well happen in the next 5 to 10 years.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[37:40] Overall stock markets should correct 20%. It would be healthy. If they correct 30%, that tells you something very very crazy is happening in the world and there's enough crazy going on that something like that should happen.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[33:03] there's so much more room for downside risk in this overvalued market than there is upside risk

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[27:39] all of the ingredients are sort of in place for a very high extended market in the US... whether it breaks in early '27 or you have to go another year or two, that's that's beyond me. Uh but but I will say this, once you get it there, that's when you have to take action in your portfolio

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[0:00] my target it was lifted to 8,000 from 7,300. I do see that by end of year market should end the year on a positive note. I just don't think it's going to be an easy uh two or three months.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[3:16] where we go next I think is it's going to prove a little bit choppy between now in the midterms. It it shouldn't be a straight shot continued push higher in the next few months.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[6:03] I think we're entering a time when specifically in September, we're likely going to get some volatility and uh we can speak about that in more detail.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[37:29] I think that uh you know that should carry us that should carry us higher in the markets in general over the next couple years even if it's a it's a choppy time in 2026.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[36:34] eventually probably come the third quarter 2028, we'll reach sort of a tipping point where uh you know some of the cycles I look at start to turn down into like 2030.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[11:19] I think we're just in the beginning of that 40 to 60% sell-off that I'm looking for. And I think that we'll see some acceleration once we get out of this next 2-week cycle and after Labor Day, I think we'll see some some acceleration to the downside.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[18:42] arguably maybe we'll have one again at the end of 2026. But the point is is if if we do get a correction in the stock market near the end of 2026

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[16:22] The S&P and the NASDAQ 100 cannot afford basically about an 8 to 10% drop from where they closed last week. If they do, they will be blowing annual momentum trend structures. Very long-term momentum trends... You break that floor, it's over. Bear market commences.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[0:00] the stock market's going to find a top within the next quarter. Uh and that's not not going to be just an ordinary market top. It's not just going to be like this is going to be a big one.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[24:45] I think it's going to be bad. I think you're going to see something in the NASDAQ similar to the to what we saw in um in 200 uh and one 2000 to 2001... I think it can last for you know 3 years or something like that. It's you can easily see it like that.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[20:50] just based on the most recent over the last month price action, it is pointing to roughly like 8,100 8,200 for the S&P 500, which is a a pretty decent move from where we are. That's about a 6% move.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[22:16] They would have to go back to the last major low, which was March 2009. That would be a 90% crash for the S&P 500 and 96% for the Nasdaq. That is worse than 1929 to 32.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[26:03] we could see by year-end stocks down the S&P down I I'm actually predicting 54% back to the last major support and the NASDAQ down 64%. People I mean, that could happen by year-end

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[0:00] they would love to see a $100 $120 basically Brent right now that would really like and push the US stock market down 10%

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[4:46] if they do that, that's bullish oil and that's bearish for the stock market. And I think that's probably for me that's a that's a that's a big focus for this week anyway.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[16:39] they oughtn't to be worried about gold. They should be looking at equities, risk assets. If the so-called risk-free premium spikes, you know, the the case for buying risk assets really goes away. That's that's the bigger trade here. I mean, I'm I'm not dissing gold, but you know, the gold the entire gold sector is a tiny fraction of tech stocks or or anything else of the overall marketplace. So, uh you know, people if people want to worry about this, I think I really think they should be worrying about the stock market rally and and how long it can go on in the face of higher rates.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[14:39] it's really been uh an earnings driven uh bull market. Which is uh I'd rather have an earnings led melt up than a uh valuation led melt up. Valuation is what uh we call FOMO. And uh earnings led, especially what we have now, is fabulous earnings momentum

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[0:11] Get get a one or two% correction over the course of a couple of days, hold, you know, retest that breakout support and then find some buying impetus that would come in and then then move back up and set a new high. That's pretty much going to give you a really good indication the bull market's still intact probably through year end.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[1:31] yes, the charts are saying higher that we're likely headed I have a target of around 81 to 8200 on the S&P by year-end. But I think again, this is the final throws before something much worse is on the horizon that's going to hit probably in early 2027.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[20:44] I really think that we're going to have a problem in in September or early early October whenever the traditional dates are in that area where we have these typical crashes of the market. The trend seems to be certainly lining up for September or the first week of October.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[3:29] I think that you have will have a few weeks of of a rally going into midterm elections given there isn't much really Trump can do uh given how close we are.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[10:16] I think we'll get cautious again going into November into the midterm elections because we feel you know, after November that you know, our president is not really going to hold back and we might see a re-escalation in Iran, we might see new tariffs announced because at that point he'll have really nothing to lose. Um so, we're you know, we're going to be cautious again in about a couple months

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[20:48] The equity market crash, I believe, can happen this late September or early o or or October. Right now, the people are in a summer state of mind. It's summertime and the living is easy. They don't know what's going on.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[19:00] if you look at the numbers the history of that when that ratio is over 35 you don't make any money in the next 5 years. So we'll see if it plays out this time but I I I would I'd certainly take a look at and keep it in mind.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[39:01] my view, which I said on January 1, is I thought that Wall Street through 2026 would have a range-bound year. Now, I've probably been wrong on that on many accounts, but I still think that the best view for this year is that you've got generally a range-bound market. Uh I don't think there's great upside. I don't think there's a risk of downside.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[2:02] I think I can get get you easily $440 of earnings next year. You put a 22 to 23 multiple on that on the S&P, you get to 10,000. You do you from there, you do 15% growth in earnings, and you I can get you to 14 to 15,000 by the presidential election.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[41:18] but that's but the S&P 500's a double from here.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[39:54] And and and and and then if it's earnings growth, you know, think about it. $600 a share. What happens if you get to $7 to $800 earnings per share in the S&P 500, David, and you put a 22 multiple on it, right?

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[1:46] saying that the risks of a 1998 style correction were rising uh as we headed into Q3, maybe Q4 of this year... And so that's essentially the kind of market dynamic we see as the most likely outcome in the context of our views on the monetary policy cycle.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[15:08] 19%. So the market rallied 21% I think from December through the high of July. It gave it all back and then some by the end of August and then it rallied like 27% to close up like 20some percent uh by year end.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[0:01] I suspect that we'll probably fall a little bit more, test that old resistance line, then we'll see whether we were back off to the races or if this we're just going back into the consolidation. This was a false breakout. Similar to the false breakout on the downside we had in mid late June.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[10:07] I would be a buyer. You know, I'm in a lot of my retirement accounts, I'm still long spy, I'm still long the general market, but we could see with setups like this, this is what I like to see for for more of a broadening um sector rally.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[5:03] I think we're setting up for a pullback of 4 to 7% in coming weeks. In other words, you got five up, you're going to see a retracement rally or a retracement pullback of that rally.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[5:15] Beyond that, I think there's going to be another leg higher.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[20:37] the weakness of the breath on this thrust makes me believe that this pattern is correct and that suggests that we're nearing the end of the rally from the March 30th. I'm not looking for the sky to fall or anything like that. I just think the probability of a 4 to 7% pullback in the overall market is developing.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[22:41] we're likely to see a near-term high in in the next handful of days.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[10:27] If we look at this recent rally and this pullback using Fibonacci extensions, this tells us the upside move is about 8500 in the S&P 500. So, we're looking at potentially the second leg. It's about a 10% move uh in in that space.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[15:14] I do feel like this this last move may be that that one that goes really really vertical. It could be a very strong move that happens in the next 1 to two months hits those targets and and then we could probably start to see the market become very very volatile.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[31:22] we we know the stock market's in a bubble. Any measure of bubbles, throw the thing up as a bubble. No matter what, no matter you you take your measurement, you take your gauge, they all say bubble... higher interest rates you usually are associated with bubbles popping.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[9:12] we're at 7,700. I do not believe that this this bull market can continue much longer. Um, and so I actually think that we're going to correct before the midterms, before November.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[18:00] I'm shooting for 8,250 on the S&P 500 by the end of the year and 10,000 by the end of the decade. And uh those have been my targets for a while and so far so good.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[21:00] I think we're at sort of the end stage of a very long and vast bubble in the stock market which has been enhanced by below market interest rates and now basically interest rates are in real terms adjusted for inflation near zero. So we're seeing uh over the last quarter or so a big blowoff top uh in stocks. So I think there's that risk.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[23:41] I I think that's probably where we're where we're headed is they're going to have to tighten to the point where you get stock prices come down enough, high yield spreads blow out enough that kind of looks like a typical recession in order to get uh inflation under control.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[36:49] And when you talk about the stock market, you need something north of 50% to bring it back just to bring it back to historical metrics historical normal um ratios as far as total market cap to equities or GDP or price to sales which are the two most important metrics of this of measuring the valuation of the stock market.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[18:01] it's very important for me and my clients to make sure that we are unscathed from the next recession the next credit crisis because it's going to be another lost decade or perhaps longer before we get back to even

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[8:09] 40% of the US uh S&P 500 is concentrated in 10 names, and those 10 names are all more or less indexed to the AI trade, uh which is convulsing to an extent uh post-Google earnings, and the market didn't like uh what they saw from a CapEx perspective. So, there's even question marks around uh equity markets.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[23:38] You can look forward to the next 3 to four months of higher volatility. Um that's that's the trade I'm I'm I'm anticipating for second half of this year.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[23:13] if we start ticking down the stock market, which is normal in this type of cycle, that's a big trade. And Treasuries are the place to be the place to start. And that's where I think we're seeing warnings from things like Bitcoin going down and gold failing and even the Cosby blowing over is um it's only July. And we haven't got through August yet. Just wait till we get through to closer to the midterms.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[23:37] I think this action is corrective. We'll probably make higher rise later on in the year.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[26:44] the minimum projection based on the signals we had in April was is for 828621 in the um in the um S&P 500 which is a gain of 11.54% from the current current price level. The median gain would take us to 895823 which is a gain of 20.59%.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[16:04] We're just looking for a correction, but a correction could be five, six, seven, eight, nine%. The S&P did decline 5.03% to the June 9th. At this point, you would not believe that's the final low of this correction

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[33:04] Got a decent cash position because I think that rising real rates could cause, you know, a 10% draw down at any point. This is kind of the time you'd sort of expect it to happen. It happens in mid midterm years, most years. Uh, and when when those real interest rates rise, um, it it tightens financial conditions. It puts pre pressure on valuations, and I think we could have one of those August where a bunch of traders out in the Hamptons have to drive back to New York and deal with the problems.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[15:02] when it comes crashing down, and it will, cuz we know it will, right? It always does. This pattern repeats. When it comes crashing down, make sure you're protected outside of the system because everything's going down with this

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[42:00] I'm afraid that we'll see the start of a new financial crisis somewhere in the not too distant future because uh if you look at valuations on stock exchanges everything points to something um breaking in the not too distant future.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[19:28] I'm in the camp that doesn't own any US equities. I think that's enough bearishness to begin with. Rolling over and not performing well for several years is another matter and that's the advice that I've given in our planning group, why I don't want to have any US exposure to general equities.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[18:41] we might have just before Labor Day here in the USA uh to see some still supporting the market, but after that I think things are going to get very tough in our market as the political stuff moves to the forefront and they can't keep covering up all the excesses that this stock market has you know, taken well advantage of.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[19:41] I think there's a very high probability we get a 5 to 10% correction somewhere and maybe we've started that. Who knows? Um, but that's just going to but any downturn in the prices is going to be factoring in this depreciation kind of conversation.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[10:47] if you're 100% in the S&P 500 today, you are 90% in AI. And I think that is not the way uh if you're me, you've heard me on this channel say it a million times, I mostly solve for sleeping at night and not dying poor.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[0:10] When that sorts out, there's going to be some pain.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[17:06] the total market cap of equities to GDP, that ratio is the most is the is the strongest, most robust measurement metric to see if the stock market is overvalued. It's now 235% of GDP. The The average of that ratio is 100. That means the stock market has to drop by over 50% just to get back to a a mean ratio if GDP didn't fall.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[0:57] I think we're going to see significant pain a lot quicker than we would have seen it in years past... the outcome is going to be... a sharp deleveraging at some point and then the Fed responding by printing money and in this case probably buying bonds or doing yield curve control

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[5:17] the S&P is about 1% from its all-time high. So, money's rotating. That's good.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[9:30] I think they're going to hold rates until they're trying to time a market rolling over in my opinion. And I think that's going to happen in September, late September or very early October. So, it's somewhere in that month, five weeks area.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[7:22] The stock market has yet, in my opinion, the stock market has yet to wake up to that very fundamental reality. If you just don't know something, you have to place a lower valuation on a company. And yet, look at the valuations we're trading at. Something's got to give.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[24:16] I know we're up about 11% for the year in the S&P. It would not surprise me at all if we ended up unchanged for the year or down on the year before it's all said and done.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[28:07] you can bet your you can bet you're a sweet bippy, as they say, you'll see a 20, 30, 40% haircut come in this market at some point. When is that point? I don't know. I'm still looking for an overall 40 to 60% haircut. I'm not changing my views.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[10:30] at these valuations, we've done the work, other people have done the work. We're not the only ones saying this. At these valuations, your 10-year forward returns are projected to be uh zero, including dividends, which implies a big draw down between now and then.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[31:51] I think it's in the last gasps and uh in in a 40 to 50% draw down. Uh that's when the investment math works the the other way. 50% draw down, you need to go up 100% to get back to break even.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[19:49] I've been saying for the last couple months that I think August, September is our big risk for a correction. Uh we're close to triggering a sell signal on a momentum basis. Relative strength is weakening here.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[0:00] we are looking ahead to 2027 and we do think that there's a potential for a deeper decline next year, mainly because you're going to be cycling through some some high growth, high inflation numbers from the first half of this year that when you cycle against that next year, it's going to look like growth is really decelerating, inflation's coming down. That's not a great environment for for risky assets.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[5:08] I think somewhere in here in the next 6 or 9 months, 12 months, you're going to probably get some sort of high that sticks for quite a while. And uh I I think people are probably not ready for that.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[34:22] the positive side is that u I do think there'll be a fairly severe market in the next year or two on the downside.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[17:38] if you have a a 40 or 50% market decline, that means the winners of the last cycle are probably going down by 2/3 or more.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[28:29] remember the average of the S&P 500 um PE was used to be 16. I don't think you can look at that anymore. I don't think that's going to I don't think we're going to come well hopefully we're not going to come back to that average. So I think there is a rerating and for quality assets who are generating strong cash flow dividends and strong earnings I think it's worth it.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[3:42] Well, I'm in complete agreement with Jeremy Grantham that we're in the greatest bubble in stock bubble in US history. and he he thinks you're going to have a great crash. The stocks are going to decline 70%. Or more. Um, I'm not sure that will happen, but I know this is the this I agree with him that this is the greatest bubble

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[25:17] the valuations of the top 10, you may not see the numbers, are almost the same as their um as the their average over this time period. So, the average is about 20.8 times forward earnings, and they're about 21.6 times. So, there's not a some kind of valuation distortion, Adam, and that's why I think we can be, you know, really comfortable um just riding this wave.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[31:46] I do expect to see some real market problems in September and we'll have to have another conversation in August, I guess, to get another update on what's going on next.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[12:34] my prediction is you'll see stocks down the S&P up to 50% within 3 months and the Nasdaq up to 60% and it'll happen so fast, then you'll panic and sell and then it'll bounce against that to say you're wrong and then it'll crash 80 to 90% in the next 2 years if history has anything to say about this.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[5:15] we should see the markets go down very strongly into October or late this year. And And that's what I'm looking for now.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[33:06] we should see a sharp 40-50% crash in stocks by the end of this year. That would be the sign that this bubble's over

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[2:42] we don't we're not at the point where again the stock market is topping right here and now. That's not what I see... I I I think it's going to happen. I mean, it's um there's no indication that the market has stopped at this point.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[0:00] Yeah, we still think the risk of a 1998 style correction markets is is still pretty high over the next one and two quarters.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[12:01] the S&P 500 is up on average about 12% with a 75% hit rate. And the reason for that is the stock market doesn't care about geopolitics. The stock market doesn't care about politics. The stock market cares about earnings and stock prices follow earnings over time.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[29:51] We're up 10% in the first 6 months. Our target range is 7,400 7,800. We're in the middle of that now. That's why I think you don't chase it here and and you buy pullbacks. We'll get some, David, right? It's a midterm year. We'll get some V this summer.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[20:49] we're going to go from an environment where companies were buying back a trillion plus dollars a year in shares um to now being net issuers and uh net borrowers. So there's a tremendous demand for you know there'll be first a supply of equities rather than you know an expanding supply of equities rather than a shrinking supply of equities which has had the double whammy effect of both boosting um the prices but also the earnings per share metric

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[13:15] I think 7800 is a very reasonable target I think 7853 off the top of my head uh uh stands out

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[0:21] I am becoming more cautious as to this top being more than just a pullback and a buying opportunity.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[3:13] we're broadly following the 1920s. So, we're in a big bull market. We're definitely in a big bull market that culminates potentially in 2029

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[24:14] I think the kind of the maybe call it the easy money part of the cycle is passed. Um and you're going to get into the kind of the choppier more volatile part of the uh kind of market cycle coming up in the next 6 to 12 months.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[16:55] S&P 500 earnings are expected to grow north of 20% and and you know, that's all fine, but you know, when you take a look at the five hyperscalers, they're talking about spending, I'm looking at my notes real quick, 760 billion this year. They're going to only expense about 211 billion of that. So, the depreciation bill that nobody's paying attention to is coming due over the next couple of years, and that's going to impact earnings growth as well.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[32:55] this particular um storm, which is one of of um month end, quarter end, half year end, year end, all at the same time, which is the end of June, that should rectify itself in July and then we should be off to the races again.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[26:55] Uh, I think it's got a great chance to go down to 7200. Uh, I think the highs are in. I think the next resistance would be about it would be at 7520 would be where I would be reselling and adding on to my position.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[21:25] we've got midterms coming up, which is termally ter normally between now and midterms, the markets are lower anyways. You throw a rate a rate hike in there, you could see some pretty serious selling.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[23:48] I think that you know we'll probably be sideways to down for a little bit here but I think by the end of the year in 2027 you know we'll see new highs in equities.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[0:00] we're going to likely see a major correction until at least the second half of 2027, if not 2028.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[13:57] we could see it pull back to roughly about 6,000 on the S&P 500 down to about 5,500. And so, that is from, you know, the current price today. That is about 18 to a 24% uh pullback in the equities market.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[14:39] If we take a look at this one from a a zoomed in perspective, this current leg, it is showing that we could see about to 7100 down to about 7,000. So, if the S&P 500 pulls back here, we got about a 3 and a half to about 6% drop. And that'll be a healthy correction.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[3:00] when we think about this for the next five or 10 years if you're buying at this price it's not something that's going to do well over the long run. this is not the time to be expanding your um risk assets.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[6:23] And I think that's what we're going to experience in the coming uh months and quarters.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[27:04] my view through this year, I mean rightly or wrongly, uh we're halfway through is that what you'd see from Wall Street in 2026 would broadly speaking be a range-bound market. There'd be volatility, uh but it would really go sideways because the authorities wouldn't be tightening that aggressively. Uh and I think that's still the case. But, I think as we roll the clock on, uh the odds are that liquidity conditions are going to tighten more and more and more. Uh and that that projection uh becomes, you know, maybe challenged by year end or into '27.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[0:23] I don't have a very bullish outlook for equities and clearly as well for bonds.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[8:02] I do think I do think we're going to have a little bit of a pullback here, at least for July. I think July is going to be a little tough.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[47:03] my view would be that there is a big disappointment coming. That both home prices will go down and stocks price will go down. Maybe not so much in nominal terms, but against gold, the market is way down since 2000.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[16:13] I think that smackdown is going to come within the next 9 months into Q1. You're going to have a comeuppance here. Maybe driven by the Fed, maybe driven by Trump, maybe driven by war. Who knows? But like things are going to teeter and fall at some point.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[9:47] it's going to imply a lower equity market. You know, liquidity is draining out of the market and what this means is that over time people are going to go to more defensive stocks and bonds.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[0:19] the top will be in Q3 of this year. And uh that's being as bold as I can right now.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[0:27] we could see a huge deflationary factor from the fact that the stock market could implode, which I think it will

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[26:06] I mean, it's going the opposite. It's it's not doing that. If anything, tech is eating more and more of the S&P 500... we're going to have over the next 5 years, 7 10 years, we're going to have this big transition where the S&P 500's composition goes from 50% tech to maybe 30% tech. And hard asset companies like the BHPs, like the Rio Tintos, like the Alcoas, like the the Agniko Eagles, they become a bigger part of these.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[2:21] I don't expect anything out of the Fed to have dramatic movements in the stock market immediately after.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[3:49] That's not to say I wouldn't be surprised if we don't make a new new highs in the S&P before this year's out, but it I would tell you it has all the makings of of late stage.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[1:23] I wouldn't be surprised if we don't get another swoon into the summertime.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[7:57] certainly the S&P at some point will trade 8,000. I don't think it'll be this year, but I could it certainly could happen.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[32:18] Well, I think when we when we get to 6%, I think you see the S&P down to probably about 5,500. I I think we see I think we get the sell off that I've been looking for for a while. And I think that it's I think it's coming sooner than we think.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[17:51] the second year of the presidential cycle tends to be very iffy in the stock market. We had a very good year the first year uh under Trump, but the second year with these midterms coming up and so on, there's a great deal of uncertainty. I'd just be surprised to see the stock market uh move substantially higher one way or another. I think it's just going to be a sluggish and difficult year.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[30:50] It wouldn't surprise me to make one another new high before you finish this thing up in the S&P. Maybe go up over 8,000 or something.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[5:36] these second years of these presidential terms tend to be low return years a lot of times. But the key point to them is they swoon in the middle of the year. That's when you you get declines into the summer, you know, June, July, sometimes early August, and then you then going toward election, you always get this feverish uptick.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[0:00] if you want to take a few chips off the table for the next six months, understanding that we could have these short-term surges, short-term declines, we could very much end up where we were, you know, at the end of the year where we are today. But we're probably gonna have more volatility and more reason to take just a cautious approach.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[11:46] I think that's a constant headwind that the market is going to be dealing with all year.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[9:18] I think by the end of the year it's going to just be a big red candle in stock market following what's guiding us in cryptos following the lessons of volatility and massive speculation with all this, you know, all these IPOs and things.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[2:06] I think we're in a a uh a prolonged um topping process in the stock market. That's taken longer obviously than I thought it would take for it to play out. Um especially with this latest move in semiconductors, this this kind of final blowoff phase I think is what we're kind of in the midst of. I still do think this is all kind of in the midst of a major topping process.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[17:16] I have a potential head and shoulder topping pattern activated since yesterday. Um, we are seeing the largest IPO ever, SpaceX and Wall Street has changed all the rules to make sure that now retail can benefit because the institutionals apparently are not uh having enough interest anymore... I think stock market totally overvalued.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[12:22] I do, but more so that the S&P P plays catch-up. So, so for instance, I think you might see a little outperformance on Bitcoin. That doesn't mean both are going to go up. What it to me would mean would be that the S&P actually starts to play catch-up um to the downside and maybe Bitcoin doesn't fall percentage-wise quite as much.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[20:56] I would say that's a very low probability scenario. The reason I say that is that ultimately we have now broken a key ups sloping trend line from the lows of March... these are beginning signals that you may be entering a downtrend period.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[21:52] I would just caution if you look at midterms, there's usually a sell-off in the summer before the midterms. There's other factors also inclusive of the overbought semis that probably bring this market back in a little bit.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[15:23] I'm expecting 40 to 60%. You said it in the headline. And I'm not expecting it in one day nor tomorrow. But at the end of the day, if you're a true investor and investing money that you can afford, there's really nothing you should do other than learn how to hedge your portfolio or let it sit

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[4:51] I am still bullish on this share in the stock market. I think 8,000 to 8,400.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[31:41] Earnings are going to grow 15 to 16%. By uh 16% this year in the S&P, 15 next year by 2031. And why do I pick 31? That's where 100% tax deduction of capex is ends. I can see $650 worth of earnings on the S&P 500.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[27:53] maybe the stock market continues making new nominal highs. I mean, I, you know, I've kind of given up on being a bear on the stock market.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[29:30] our technical work says that the stock market has been in a topping process for a year, more than a year... our argument is on long-term metrics that right now the thing to watch for is any not a collapse, but any move that gets you back down, let's say by the end of the quarter, especially early next quarter. So, three, four weeks from now, gets you back down to 7,000 or lower, especially getting back below that price ceiling that we had.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[7:55] if you were to like get an inheritance and put your $1 million inheritance in the stock market today, you're likely guaranteed a 0% return including dividends for 10 years, which incl which implies a a tremendous draw down between now and then.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[31:40] the index has as much chance of making money in the next 10 years statistically as the man on the moon. If you go back and look at every time that the index is in the situation it is now, and then look 10 years later, it it it 72 to 82, 99 to09, you lost money. You lost money counting dividends in the index for 10 years. the chance of the index making money over the next 10 years statistically from historical mathematical Schiller cape GDP to stock market value the Buffett indicator I don't care which indicator you they're all telling you the same thing there's no chance for the S&P 500 to do well

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[4:02] we've been warning particularly in the last couple of weeks that the US stock market was looking a little precarious, at least on a near-term basis with very poor breadth.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[19:21] I think 6,000 is probably a very reasonable level that I think we could see the S&P 500 hit.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[22:18] it is saying we could potentially work our way up to 8500 which from where that is today that's another you know 11 12%.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[18:26] their margins will get bigger and bigger and that's probably going to prop up the stock market a little bit more because the stock market isn't the stock market. It's just the best companies in the S&P 500.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[6:24] if you look at the proportion of the S&P 500 that is trading above 20 times earnings is over 80% over 80% of all the market cap in the S&P 500 has a more than 20 times earnings price tag on it. the last time that happened uh briefly in the zero interest rate environment during the pandemic but before that all the way back to the dotcom boom and so um we are at a period right now uh widespread uh you know broadly in the market where you have overvaluation risk

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[7:24] this is telling us we should see RSP the equal weighted stock market based on the current price at 208. It should actually run up to about 217. It's about a 4% move.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[2:09] what comes next is probably a more ugly phase. So you're likely to see a sort of turbulent phase where liquidity gets drained more quickly and the direction of markets is more likely down.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[4:56] the one thing I would say as far as where where I would turn neutral to even negative uh without any particular signal is if you get if you get a full measured move extension on this current swing and in terms of the June S&P that would be about 7850 or so. So uh we're at 7621 uh 7850. So you know another another 200 230 points would be a complete measured move extension and that would certainly say the market should be near uh at or near an exhaustion point

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[12:13] I think that's starting to uh create, you know, potentially a pretty bearish brew for sometime um in early 2027.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[5:33] we're certainly going to have a pullback in the market. So what this is is this is a Fibonacci retracement. And and if you're not fi familiar with Fibonacci retracement levels... a retracement of you know back to kind of the 50% retracement level which you would kind of expect after such a big advance. Not saying that's got to happen but and that's where the previous breakout high was. So it' be a retracement of the previous breakout. That's about a 7 and a half% decline from here.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[28:37] the fundamental underpinnings of the market suggest markets will be higher by the end of this year, but you're going to have a correction most likely between now and and then.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[2:28] I think it's going to happen again probably longer and deeper.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[15:21] At some point that's going to reverse. I don't know when, but it seems like it may be starting and it's one of the most underinvested parts of the globe.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[26:16] I think we finished the year at a much higher level from a stock market standpoint than we are today but that doesn't mean we can't have a let's call it 10 to 15% draw down between now and then as a function of central banks reaction function uh getting incrementally hawkish

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[18:25] you merge that with the SpaceX at the same time. That's your recipe for a little bit of a pullback. Maybe not a correction but 3 four 5% something along those lines here coming off these all-time highs.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[25:33] we're going to see rotation out of the big US growth tech names, tech growth names, and into things that have lagged uh primarily for foreign markets, but also for value stocks, for smaller stocks, and and and so on.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[12:12] It's going to continue at an accelerating rate which is why bond yields will rise, equity markets will collapse, sell them in May go away and um precious metals will have the appearance of rising whereas in fact they're just maintaining their value.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[20:58] I do think we're we're going to get a big decline in the stock market at some point. you know, we're at nosebleed valuations uh in a in a big AI uh tech bubble uh that's at some point going to burst.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[11:34] we are still playing for more upside. The economy still um is still chugging along. It's not gang busters, but doing well. The corporate profits, as we talked about, are phenomenal right now. We've got technicals still good. So, we're still playing from the long side.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[1:10] He believes that we're on the cusp of a lost decade plus in nominal equity returns and meaningful real losses if investors keep using the same old 40-year buy the dip stayong growth playbook.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[0:38] higher interest rates leads to multiple contraction and profit margin contraction... about 75% of businesses have profit margins collapse as inflation gets going. And yes, revenue increases, but the actual profit margin decreases.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[7:13] the case Schiller um uh measure of valuation of the S&P 500 is at its second highest level above normal valuations in history. So if you go back 150 years, there's only been one time when the case uh measure of valuation was any higher in relative term. So yes, we are late stage and we are um you know seeing that final uh stages of blowoff in asset markets.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[10:14] history tells us that it's a lot closer because typically during this midterm election cycle between May and October we have averaged about an 18% selloff in that period of time.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[15:08] I think the American market is in a bubble now, which is a very risky situation and also a highly profitable one, but you are guaranteed that there'll be a crash. It's just a question of when and I think that's about 2 years away.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[16:25] Yeah, I think that that is exactly what what I believe is likely to continue to happen. This this enormous discrepancy between what people perceive about the real economy and what they see in markets. No. uh and and and it's and all and and that means higher markets, higher indices

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[27:34] all those things that are macro are are absolutely correct... it is better to have an overweight position in US stocks relative to others that are also interesting but don't and also the units of risk that you need to take in order to generate the same returns that you get in the S&P 500 or the NASDAQ in the MSCI world or in the or in the stock 600 uh are much higher.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[0:00] What I would expect to see sometime in the next three to six months is a healthy 20 to 30% pullback, scary, then a counter trend rally, the Fed starts cutting and then if we're in a bear market that counter trend rally will fail and then we'll go to lower lower lows

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[5:55] I think I think we're going to see the growth scare come and be evident by the end of Q2

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[2:54] I'm talking about obviously you know 30% or more in some of the indexes from here to say that that can happen by Labor Day may sound crazy but that's what a parabolic is is u you know things move pretty fast pretty far.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[0:52] a surge that could drive gold to $6,800 and silver to $180 before triggering an 80% global bust.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[17:00] one of my my key theme at the beginning of the year is stock market volatility is just too low compared to the volatility spiking we're seeing in crude oil and gold. We've never had gold like I mentioned earlier volatility run at two times that of the S&P 500 for long. Usually stock market volatility picks up.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[9:08] I wouldn't be surprised if we're not into another minor down again and then go up again. We're just in that that's what you get a lot of times in these second years of presidential terms.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[13:18] The United States economically, socially and politically is in far worse shape than any time other than the major declines 2000 n 2008, 2000, 1987 and even 1929... it's time to maybe short the US stock market.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[34:28] what we have experienced through a combination of two factors the introduction of defined contribution relative to defined benefit and the introduction of passive to facilitate investing in that defined contribution framework are two once in a-lifetime phenomenon that are unlikely to repeat themselves... we are creating conditions where that eventually has to be reversed under demographic features and the higher volatility that emerges. Um, and that's the unpleasant experience. That would be like going... that is the experience of investing in the 1920s versus investing in the 1930s.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[30:28] we're getting towards the end of that secular bull market period. Valuations are elevated. We've got a lot of exuberance in the markets. um you know there's a whole variety of demographic issues that are going on with the economy that are going to lead up to having this period of low returns for a decade or two

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[17:51] when you open next quarter, one or two of our major long-term metrics, particularly quarterly momentum, will be sitting on a floor that you cannot see on a price chart, but on a momentum chart, if you saw that chart, you'd say, 'Good grief, you better not break that floor.' Because if you do, you're going to implode. And that could be an event that happens later this summer.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[38:17] I'm not saying it's not going to happen, but I'm just saying there's so many tailwinds right now. It's it's a it's dangerous to just stand in front of that juggernaut until at least you see evidence that things are starting to deteriorate in the big numbers.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[33:06] that money that they pushed in at that point or whatever they did there that that you can't just pull it back. So that it will drive the market for a few months more but the impact of it the momentum of it the force of it will will slow down and then I'm expecting to see it go straight back on that line that we've seen for so many years

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[13:15] Yeah, I think it's the latter. Yeah, I mean there just isn't a lot of basic support for the economy, US economy as I mentioned earlier in our conversation. And uh as a result, I I think we're very like very likely to have a considerable recession and sell off in in stocks, you know, the whole the whole company apparatus that comes with a weakening economy and recession.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[32:09] as you get into, uh, fall, particularly near the election or post-election, uh, you have to be incredibly cautious what happens between now and then. Uh, very well could see a little bit more of this.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[33:07] you see a timing window of of after the summer as more likely.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[10:27] I think you faded here... if you want to make a market call, which I don't like making, I think I I'd sell out rather than buy it.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[8:27] valuations in the general equities market now are quite overvalued in my view and I think you'll see a disconnect. you see a reconnection commodities versus the S&P as we probably get some of the air out of this bubble in the markets.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[35:00] even though I think the stock market's in a bubble, usually bubbles only collapse when monetary policy tightens up. So, so what this means is that well, okay, we're in a bubble. Maybe the bubble isn't going to pop because the money the the monetary policy it's not tightening doesn't appear to be in the cards.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[25:52] You always have you every so often eight ten years you have a generational bare market. Well, we haven't had one. We've gone longer than normal since 2010 without one. But bare markets don't really crash particularly. They they just roll over real slowly for three or four or five months and then they pick up steam over time. That's why people can't they can't see it. They're just sort of drifting off. And then the last part of that bare market is when it gets really nasty. That's when you lose twothirds of the value.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[0:00] our conclusion is somewhere between 65% and about 80% the market enters into a stochcastic regime in which the possibility of explosive volatility and a 1987 style crash becomes not a probability but almost a certainty. So we're unfortunately very close. We're gaining about 4% a year in passive share right now. So at that 65% lower level, we're you know 2 and a half years out.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[14:14] the broad stock market has never been more overvalued than it is today, driven by this AI boom, bubble, whatever you want to call it

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[5:42] The new highs we just saw, I think, are transient. I think it we we we thought it would occur and we thought that probably it would extend into this month and i suspect you may even make higher highs this month than you did last.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[13:03] multi-year bare trend? Sorry, multi-year bare trend. Yeah. But the question is what does it what is goes with it? What other assets go with it? Where will it how much down will it go? I don't know that I can say that most of the bare markets in US history of the last 100 years last two and a half to three years the dimension of the decline varies. Usually they're at least 50%.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[4:52] I do think we could see the markets potentially rally another six, seven percent to the upside, the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ, maybe even more than that, depending on the time frame we look at.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[0:00] What I say longterm is I'm I'm bearish. I do believe we're coming into a huge market correction and it's going to devastate most investors.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[5:57] The S&P 500 could move all the way up to about 8,500. And so that is a obviously a very significant move. That is about a 20% move.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[14:15] I predict that many of the grammar stocks of today they're going to be down 50% 80% 90%. And you know that's that's based on history. Okay? This is not just an extreme valuation based on history. This is what happens to the high-f flyers uh during big bare markets.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[28:55] I think when the the stock market has a 30 to 50% correction, it's going to pull gold, silver down with it.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[17:40] I think you can kind of pull back a little bit and be a little bit cautious. So even today, right, the S&P's not doing quite as well as the, you know, semiconductor.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[18:03] if you think we are going to have um the the positive effects of the the rate cuts that commenced 19 months ago. I would theorize and I have theorized and I've got the charts out there on X that you could see the rate of growth on S&P 500 profits peak out in the out years of this decade

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[14:04] Um I do suspect that we, you know, potentially give back probably 3 to 5% of the 12% maybe that we have done. So that likely could happen between now and the middle part of May if what I'm thinking is correct.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[21:04] I expect the markets are going to rally really into the latter part of July probably mid August. I think it's actually going to be a pretty decent uh rally.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[24:44] I I don't view those as being uh something that add a lot of value for people. Uh honestly, if I had to give people something that I thought might be a better sticking point as to my views is that this year is going to be a choppy year uh full of both declines and also big sharp advances and and but I think the market ends higher.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[8:30] And what I predict's going to happen is in my generation, I'm a Trump and I are the same age. We wrote two books together. This one here is Trump and myself. And we're very concerned about what's going to happen. is it's like you know that the cartoon Peanuts with Charlie Brown and Lucy where Lucy holds the football and she says come on Charlie Brown come on kick the ball and Charlie Brown says no you're going to pull it away from me no I won't so Charlie Brown winds up and Lucy convinces that she won't pull the football away and Charlie Brown goes charging ahead kicks she pulls the football away and he falls in his butt that's what they're going to do to the boomers because in 1974 was the petro dollar when we guaranteed Saudi Arabia we protect them and also 1974. So I look I look at this from the most pessimistic point of view possible. my generation and boomer generation is being set up because when this S&P 500 blows and crashes, then we're going to be more homeless people than ever before and there'll be boomers who one time had jobs and had money and they're going to steal their wealth via the pension.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[25:32] wait for the stock market to crash because if this takes off the way I think it will, that market will eventually catch up with reality.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[14:34] the death cross, I think, is going to be right around 5,500 on the S&P. So the S&P goes below 5,500, gold goes above it. That's the death cross.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[2:24] the markets are threatening and pushing up to maybe hit all-time highs here in the um next couple of sessions.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[28:41] You can see here the S&P 500 has potential to rally another 10 or so percent. And then if it if it continues from there, we could see it go another 20%.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[2:14] I would be surprised if over the next two quarters we don't have some more weakness back. It doesn't mean doesn't mean a bare market. It just means that wouldn't surprise me to go back where we were earlier.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[0:20] I think this economy, especially in the second half of the year when a lot of the short-term stimulus falls by the wayside, uh is going to be showing some significant strain.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[0:00] We are nowhere near a bare market. Not not even by a moonshot close.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[28:41] S&P 500 up or down by the end of the year? Up.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[1:29] we think that the fundamental condition of US stocks remains very good and in fact if you take two steps back and think about the weakness that we've seen in several areas of US stocks namely tech stocks uh stocks have become more attractive from a valuation standpoint number one but what's really interesting David is that earnings growth and earnings estimates for the S&P 500 in certain sectors including tech uh financials would be another one have actually gone up since we talked class. So I think this malaise, the conflict is yet again some noise that investors with respect to emotions and fear are driving them hopefully uh not but they do drive uh investors to make uh snap decisions on selling equities. We clearly do not believe that that's the right thing to be doing right now. And we do believe that uh the US market will continue to be on pace for this bull market number one. But number two is part of this big 25 year secular bull market that we've been calling for since 2009.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[5:02] I'm still looking longer term for that 40 to 60% haircut in the markets. I do think that we're going to go into a bare market. I do think that we are going significantly lower.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[11:55] I believe this rally is not like any of the previous rallies we had... this will be a much more sustained rally in the long term once we get rid of the uh negative headwinds uh of of the daily uh headlines

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[23:53] I can confidently predict with with great sorrow and dismay that the returns going forward will not be any clo anywhere close to 7% in real terms.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[1:45] So, I kind of see the path of the stock market being like that. probably will end up at a lower level at the end of this year than where we are today.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[19:38] Yeah, I think the market overall is going lower, but there are places in the market that are that are outperforming dramatically.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[0:00] And I still think this will turn out to be a 10 to 15% correction. And we're halfway through that and that it it could could happen in this week or or next week.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[17:59] and uh uh you know I'm I'm still using 7700 uh by by the end of u of the of the year

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[8:43] I think that it's going to be very hard for the market to break through that ceiling between now and the midterms. Um, wouldn't shock me at all if we go back up to kind of those highs or or if we just go sideways for a while. But I think it's going to be very hard to break out of that, you know, sideways channel uh between now and the election.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[8:08] I don't think this is something that takes us to new highs because of that major worry.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[33:34] And I don't think we're going to move in a fundamentally new direction until the bottom falls out of the market. And I think that's coming.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[15:24] Logic dictates we probably are coming back to that $5700 target, which would be the low end of the parallel. And I would argue that that's a year-end or early 2027 target

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[12:35] And guess what? Eight to 10% is what JP Morgan thinks the S&P will do between now and the end of the year. Their year-end target was 7500. They lowered it to 7200. We're at 6600.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[22:15] the first crash is the fastest and hardest. Stocks will go down 40 to 50% in two to four months. In other words, it's they're going to go down 80 or 90 because bubbles don't go down 50% like normal bare markets

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[9:25] it does appear to us, yeah, that we could be in for a bit of a retrenchment in the markets just based upon fundamentals

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[30:25] So, you can see this market rally back above the 200 day moving average next week. Uh get back to 6720, 6750 in there, that wouldn't be surprising at all.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[0:06] Like this is the beginning of the third 50% draw down in the S&P 500 since 2000.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[28:50] by 1981 49% of the S&P 500's composition was in materials industrials and energy 49%. We're right now maybe 14. We're nowhere near I Are we going back to 49? No. But are we going at 25 30? Yes.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[25:48] we're going to get a rally maybe starting in the next week or so that goes through April and then we're going to get into summer, which is premidterm elections. I'd expect a lot more chop and volatility during the summer, get through till we get through the midterm elections and then a rally into year end.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[10:17] it wouldn't surprise me at all if we were down in the next, you know, let's say 6 weeks 8 to 15%.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[18:46] I think it's going to last long enough for the market to go down. Okay. And then that market going down will force Trump to basically T.A.C.O..

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[8:33] the stock market is in a bubble. It's in bubble territory and and it wasn't in bubble territory in 1978. The the PE ratio was eight. Now it's you know up in 29 28.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[12:27] I would think the markets will want to run uh somewhere all the way up to we could very easily see it the S&P 500 run up to like um 600 and or 6,945 somewhere up here.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[24:47] 8,000. So, think about it. We've had that big, we've had a big broad-based rally that we were expecting. Now what we need if we get technology kicking in then you get the mag seven kicking in and driving that that S&P higher. Yes.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[6:12] And again, I'm looking at a downside move by mid year back to about 6,100 on the S&P. That would be our first major technical support.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[7:10] my guess is is even though we'll have plenty of bounces eventually we do find our way all the way down to 5600 or so on the S&P

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[6:15] my advice has been, and it's been on record, that we were going to potentially ek slightly over 50,000. There'd be a celebration by the don't worry happy crowd on Wall Street. Little did I know that the attorney general would create a new stock sale signal for the next generation with her Dow 50,000 comment. But you're right, it's rolling over. I believe the major top has been put in and I believe we're going to go into a more consolidated sideways to down movement for the rest of the year in the stock market.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[0:00] I think the next year and a half you're going to have new highs and recent new lows in the market both.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[15:59] which is out of what we could probably be getting 1.2 trillion of buybacks in total for S&P 500 this year. So, which is growth over last year.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[0:00] 2026 is the year of the shakeout. There will be places to hide. It's just they'll be fairly defensive in nature.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[32:52] Last three months we've been arguing it's got to continue up though. Get above 7,000 which it did today but probably even more probably at least get into February before it decides to roll over again. But we think it's a broad topping process of major proportions. is going into a massive bare market

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[10:39] I don't think we're going to get that pronounced of a draw down or average draw down this year because you do have uh a level of fiscal stimulus coming through in the form of tax returns jumping 40 50% uh you know 50 some odd billion dollars going in consumer's pockets and you are in an easing cycle

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[24:26] We're strong through April, very weak into the election, recovery year end.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[3:47] So the markets are likely to gap lower, potentially even lower from today. And I think we could see bargain hunters step back in and buy things back up. So again, it's a news-driven move. I you can't really trust news-driven moves. And um same same with price gaps. The gap in prices should rebound. So, that's what I'm expecting to happen uh probably Tuesday and Wednesday as the market stabilizes and recovers from this little news-driven bout of selling.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[14:34] Now, it's not a whole lot of upside from where it is right now. It's about um as of today, you and I are speaking, it's about 4 and a.5% to the upside. So, uh, that's 7,225

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[7:34] I think we're getting closer and closer, like weeks potentially from a major market top.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[39:39] with all this pressure Trump is putting on them, the Fed has pivoted towards loosening. And that means that the stock market bubble will probably stay with us.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[4:45] it implies that yes we could see a pullback uh in the S&P 500 like we did today because the top 41 uh uh AI related stocks comprise 47% of the S&P. So you do have this huge concentration and if that sector gets weak that becomes problematic for the S&P

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[12:06] the technical underpinnings right now suggest decline should be somewhere between 3 and 7%.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[12:57] I expect to see 40 to 60% in the equities. And I'm not saying it'll be all next year, but I think over the the next run will be 40 to 60% lower.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[28:07] The uh S&P 500 90% and the NASDAQ 95%. If we just go back to the last major low

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[5:49] I think the big thing that's coming is a significant unwind of the AI trade. And whether that's actually the AI bubble popping and a and a waterfall event in the markets or something a little less harmful, I'm not sure.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[15:28] I think next year is going to be a down year for the total return. I don't know how much maybe reverting towards 5,000 S&P 500.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[36:56] my view, which I've been saying for some months now, is that 2026 is likely at best to be a rangebound market for the S&P

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[5:01] That said, there is a huge bifurcation in our economy in the sense of the bottom 50% of people have been under the gun for probably four years as the cost of living ramped up. Their incomes haven't kept up um pace with that. uh the top 10% of wage earners represent almost 50% of spending and they're deriving their confidence from what's happening in the financial markets namely the stock market uh and so forth. So you have this split screen if you will where the top segment of the uh economy is doing really well. They're kind of carrying the water for the rest of the economy. That's why I think if we see a protracted bare market, which is my expectation, David, sometime over the next window of time, we're going to enter a secular bare market.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[29:27] My bet would be seasonality is usually very favorable. Um the selling pressure that we've seen hit some of the AI related stocks. Some of these stocks are down 20 30%. Um so my bet would be David is we'll see another rally as we go into end of this year early next year.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[3:25] I'm in the camp that the stock market has topped for at least a 10% 15% correction.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[11:31] going into 2026. I think it's going to be a totally different story.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[19:17] I think we're walking through a landmine and I think we're very close to the markets going for a nose dive.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[20:39] My baseline is the firewall will hold and we'll get to the other side of this 6 n 12 months down the road. We'll get some monetary fiscal stimulus and the economy should regain some traction. We should avoid recession.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[19:41] what should you expect stocks to return you over the next say 5 to 10 years about 6%.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[14:54] The daily data are suggesting down in the near term as well into October, November.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[39:08] there's an upside target around 680 SPY. So, this this target is showing us we've got about 3% upside.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[25:35] I don't think they'll get anywhere close to hitting the numbers there. They're looking at 16% the estimates out there for increased earnings in 26. I don't think there's a a chance they can make that.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[25:51] I think the US stock market is is potentially reaching the point the tipping point where where it will where the leaders will roll over and we'll see a a correction in the S&P. Uh I'm not looking for a crash or collapse but we'll probably get rotation out of those leaders

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[21:09] well here's my base case I started out the year I think this is going to be a down year for the stock market in the beginning of the third 50% draw down in the S&P 500 since the start of um since 2000.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[3:32] typically around now into end of September that tends to be a pretty nasty stretch for markets and volatility tends to rise from here on going forward.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[11:19] I think there's more likely to be um you know downside surprises we let go out of the next six months

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[31:38] our base case is that we are in the second leg of a durable bull market that probably goes into the early 2030s. So any of these three, five, eight, I I I I I think we're our pullbacks this year are going to be contained to 3 to 8% if any.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[37:16] 5800. Yeah, definitely based on what I'm seeing in the charts. Um, doesn't mean we can't get close to 7,000, but we'd have to fight through a lot of these big resistance levels at this point. And right now, again, it looks like the markets ignoring some of this good news with Nvidia.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[34:17] If you're coming in now looking at these markets, you're chasing tops. That doesn't mean they can't go for two more years. If the Fed is supportive or if there's liquidity at the banks or if there's backdoor QE that keeps these bond markets and these yields compressed, they don't get above 5%. It's risk on.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[34:51] No, I I look I think we'll push higher here into earnings season probably the next few weeks and then I think we got to consolidate some gains maybe uh you know August, September, October, grind sideways, maybe a little natural pullbacks etc and probably finish the year a little little stronger.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[3:25] I think we're seeing a pretty different circumstance right now which is expectations for future growth that are priced into the stock market are very high uh and remain very high and makes sense. you know, prices are basically at all-time highs, but at the same time, you're seeing a pretty rapid deceleration in the actual economic stats. And that sort of divergence suggests that we might be seeing uh a season of disappointment ahead when it comes to how the economy will perform relative to expectations.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[0:32] I think the market still has upside to to go. Yes. Um I don't know that it's going to come necessarily this minute or this day. Sorry, I just want to turn my phone. Um but I think that certainly the second half of the year, uh there's a good chance that the market's going to go higher

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[17:20] I think the regime uncertainty will lead eventually to what? Looking ahead, it'll lead to a more serious slowdown and a recession in the United States. And with a recession, of course, you have topline revenues going down, margins going down, profits going down, and and you know, the stock market that the pees are going to come down.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[19:01] I've been terming these the four, five, six markets that over the next several years, cash will return you 4%, bonds will return you around five, and stocks because of their high valuation will return you around six.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[12:22] I still think that at some point the bottom is going to fall out of this market and we will see a major drop... this market goes down 10, 20, 30%.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[10:36] I I would say this rollover should be should be starting to happen somewhere right up here. I think we could potentially push a little bit higher. I think somewhere between where we are right now and maybe just breaking to new all-time highs nominally for a few days or something. I think I think we're in this this zone for the market to roll over.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[4:43] this is still a bounce and it's sucking investors and traders in, uh, just before it's probably going to roll over and I think head a whole lot lower

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[12:33] I think in the near term the stock market is going to be strong.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[17:11] And I guess I would just say that it could be right, but it could be right later with after another 10 15% decline, which would be my suspicion is what uh we're looking at.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[3:06] Our base case scenario is that we are in what we've been saying is a W-shaped market in a U-shaped economy. And what I mean by that is that if you think about the shape of a W, we're sort of on the inside left of the W. And we're expecting over the next one to two quarters that the markets will eventually have to uh sell off again and price in the inside right of the W

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[12:23] we're looking at potentially a 15% to another 23 24% drop to the downside. Uh, From where we are right now.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[13:50] I think we're in a bare market in US stock market. It's early days. I think it'd be we'd be delightful if we end this this year not down 20% or more.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[0:00] You are going to see the equities which rallied yesterday and today they are going to tank again in a big way.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[6:47] I expect the market to hit the 7500 or so in 27.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[14:16] we could see it pull back to about 4600 all the way down to about 4100. So in in the reality from the ultimate highs we're looking at about a 25 uh to roughly 30% pullback

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[29:43] Do you think that the worst is behind us for equities volatility? Oh, no. I I think things things are just warming up

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[5:17] I think the skew is definitely still negative into April earnings.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[0:17] we're we're probably going at best case we're going into recession. Stock markets are going to go down more.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[2:07] I think we are in striking distance in the next uh more or less week or two uh to actually enter bare market territory. And if we take a look at the S&P 500 using technical analysis, using a Fibonacci extension, which tells us based on the current price action, the past price action, where price should go, that is going to give us where the full downside target is, which is about 15 uh 5183 on the SP500

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[6:39] I think we're we're primed and ready for another 50 plus percent selloff breaking the 2022 lows on the on the S 500

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[4:51] we should have some type of bounce up into like March 24th March 25th area

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.