S&P 500 Predictions
Browse S&P 500 market predictions and forecasts from well-known financial commentators. Each prediction is tracked from the date it was published to its estimated deadline, then graded correct or wrong based on the outcome.
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[9:18] I think by the end of the year it's going to just be a big red candle in stock market following what's guiding us in cryptos following the lessons of volatility and massive speculation with all this, you know, all these IPOs and things.
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[2:06] I think we're in a a uh a prolonged um topping process in the stock market. That's taken longer obviously than I thought it would take for it to play out. Um especially with this latest move in semiconductors, this this kind of final blowoff phase I think is what we're kind of in the midst of. I still do think this is all kind of in the midst of a major topping process.
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[17:16] I have a potential head and shoulder topping pattern activated since yesterday. Um, we are seeing the largest IPO ever, SpaceX and Wall Street has changed all the rules to make sure that now retail can benefit because the institutionals apparently are not uh having enough interest anymore... I think stock market totally overvalued.
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[12:22] I do, but more so that the S&P P plays catch-up. So, so for instance, I think you might see a little outperformance on Bitcoin. That doesn't mean both are going to go up. What it to me would mean would be that the S&P actually starts to play catch-up um to the downside and maybe Bitcoin doesn't fall percentage-wise quite as much.
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[20:56] I would say that's a very low probability scenario. The reason I say that is that ultimately we have now broken a key ups sloping trend line from the lows of March... these are beginning signals that you may be entering a downtrend period.
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[21:52] I would just caution if you look at midterms, there's usually a sell-off in the summer before the midterms. There's other factors also inclusive of the overbought semis that probably bring this market back in a little bit.
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[15:23] I'm expecting 40 to 60%. You said it in the headline. And I'm not expecting it in one day nor tomorrow. But at the end of the day, if you're a true investor and investing money that you can afford, there's really nothing you should do other than learn how to hedge your portfolio or let it sit
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[4:51] I am still bullish on this share in the stock market. I think 8,000 to 8,400.
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[31:41] Earnings are going to grow 15 to 16%. By uh 16% this year in the S&P, 15 next year by 2031. And why do I pick 31? That's where 100% tax deduction of capex is ends. I can see $650 worth of earnings on the S&P 500.
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[27:53] maybe the stock market continues making new nominal highs. I mean, I, you know, I've kind of given up on being a bear on the stock market.
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[29:30] our technical work says that the stock market has been in a topping process for a year, more than a year... our argument is on long-term metrics that right now the thing to watch for is any not a collapse, but any move that gets you back down, let's say by the end of the quarter, especially early next quarter. So, three, four weeks from now, gets you back down to 7,000 or lower, especially getting back below that price ceiling that we had.
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[7:55] if you were to like get an inheritance and put your $1 million inheritance in the stock market today, you're likely guaranteed a 0% return including dividends for 10 years, which incl which implies a a tremendous draw down between now and then.
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[31:40] the index has as much chance of making money in the next 10 years statistically as the man on the moon. If you go back and look at every time that the index is in the situation it is now, and then look 10 years later, it it it 72 to 82, 99 to09, you lost money. You lost money counting dividends in the index for 10 years. the chance of the index making money over the next 10 years statistically from historical mathematical Schiller cape GDP to stock market value the Buffett indicator I don't care which indicator you they're all telling you the same thing there's no chance for the S&P 500 to do well
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[4:02] we've been warning particularly in the last couple of weeks that the US stock market was looking a little precarious, at least on a near-term basis with very poor breadth.
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[19:21] I think 6,000 is probably a very reasonable level that I think we could see the S&P 500 hit.
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[22:18] it is saying we could potentially work our way up to 8500 which from where that is today that's another you know 11 12%.
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[18:26] their margins will get bigger and bigger and that's probably going to prop up the stock market a little bit more because the stock market isn't the stock market. It's just the best companies in the S&P 500.
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[6:24] if you look at the proportion of the S&P 500 that is trading above 20 times earnings is over 80% over 80% of all the market cap in the S&P 500 has a more than 20 times earnings price tag on it. the last time that happened uh briefly in the zero interest rate environment during the pandemic but before that all the way back to the dotcom boom and so um we are at a period right now uh widespread uh you know broadly in the market where you have overvaluation risk
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[7:24] this is telling us we should see RSP the equal weighted stock market based on the current price at 208. It should actually run up to about 217. It's about a 4% move.
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[12:13] I think that's starting to uh create, you know, potentially a pretty bearish brew for sometime um in early 2027.
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[5:33] we're certainly going to have a pullback in the market. So what this is is this is a Fibonacci retracement. And and if you're not fi familiar with Fibonacci retracement levels... a retracement of you know back to kind of the 50% retracement level which you would kind of expect after such a big advance. Not saying that's got to happen but and that's where the previous breakout high was. So it' be a retracement of the previous breakout. That's about a 7 and a half% decline from here.
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[28:37] the fundamental underpinnings of the market suggest markets will be higher by the end of this year, but you're going to have a correction most likely between now and and then.
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[2:28] I think it's going to happen again probably longer and deeper.
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[15:21] At some point that's going to reverse. I don't know when, but it seems like it may be starting and it's one of the most underinvested parts of the globe.
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[26:16] I think we finished the year at a much higher level from a stock market standpoint than we are today but that doesn't mean we can't have a let's call it 10 to 15% draw down between now and then as a function of central banks reaction function uh getting incrementally hawkish
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[18:25] you merge that with the SpaceX at the same time. That's your recipe for a little bit of a pullback. Maybe not a correction but 3 four 5% something along those lines here coming off these all-time highs.
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[25:33] we're going to see rotation out of the big US growth tech names, tech growth names, and into things that have lagged uh primarily for foreign markets, but also for value stocks, for smaller stocks, and and and so on.
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[12:12] It's going to continue at an accelerating rate which is why bond yields will rise, equity markets will collapse, sell them in May go away and um precious metals will have the appearance of rising whereas in fact they're just maintaining their value.
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[20:58] I do think we're we're going to get a big decline in the stock market at some point. you know, we're at nosebleed valuations uh in a in a big AI uh tech bubble uh that's at some point going to burst.
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[11:34] we are still playing for more upside. The economy still um is still chugging along. It's not gang busters, but doing well. The corporate profits, as we talked about, are phenomenal right now. We've got technicals still good. So, we're still playing from the long side.
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[1:10] He believes that we're on the cusp of a lost decade plus in nominal equity returns and meaningful real losses if investors keep using the same old 40-year buy the dip stayong growth playbook.
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[0:38] higher interest rates leads to multiple contraction and profit margin contraction... about 75% of businesses have profit margins collapse as inflation gets going. And yes, revenue increases, but the actual profit margin decreases.
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[7:13] the case Schiller um uh measure of valuation of the S&P 500 is at its second highest level above normal valuations in history. So if you go back 150 years, there's only been one time when the case uh measure of valuation was any higher in relative term. So yes, we are late stage and we are um you know seeing that final uh stages of blowoff in asset markets.
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[10:14] history tells us that it's a lot closer because typically during this midterm election cycle between May and October we have averaged about an 18% selloff in that period of time.
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[15:08] I think the American market is in a bubble now, which is a very risky situation and also a highly profitable one, but you are guaranteed that there'll be a crash. It's just a question of when and I think that's about 2 years away.
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[16:25] Yeah, I think that that is exactly what what I believe is likely to continue to happen. This this enormous discrepancy between what people perceive about the real economy and what they see in markets. No. uh and and and it's and all and and that means higher markets, higher indices
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[27:34] all those things that are macro are are absolutely correct... it is better to have an overweight position in US stocks relative to others that are also interesting but don't and also the units of risk that you need to take in order to generate the same returns that you get in the S&P 500 or the NASDAQ in the MSCI world or in the or in the stock 600 uh are much higher.
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[0:00] What I would expect to see sometime in the next three to six months is a healthy 20 to 30% pullback, scary, then a counter trend rally, the Fed starts cutting and then if we're in a bear market that counter trend rally will fail and then we'll go to lower lower lows
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[5:55] I think I think we're going to see the growth scare come and be evident by the end of Q2
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[2:54] I'm talking about obviously you know 30% or more in some of the indexes from here to say that that can happen by Labor Day may sound crazy but that's what a parabolic is is u you know things move pretty fast pretty far.
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[0:52] a surge that could drive gold to $6,800 and silver to $180 before triggering an 80% global bust.
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[17:00] one of my my key theme at the beginning of the year is stock market volatility is just too low compared to the volatility spiking we're seeing in crude oil and gold. We've never had gold like I mentioned earlier volatility run at two times that of the S&P 500 for long. Usually stock market volatility picks up.
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[9:08] I wouldn't be surprised if we're not into another minor down again and then go up again. We're just in that that's what you get a lot of times in these second years of presidential terms.
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[13:18] The United States economically, socially and politically is in far worse shape than any time other than the major declines 2000 n 2008, 2000, 1987 and even 1929... it's time to maybe short the US stock market.
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[34:28] what we have experienced through a combination of two factors the introduction of defined contribution relative to defined benefit and the introduction of passive to facilitate investing in that defined contribution framework are two once in a-lifetime phenomenon that are unlikely to repeat themselves... we are creating conditions where that eventually has to be reversed under demographic features and the higher volatility that emerges. Um, and that's the unpleasant experience. That would be like going... that is the experience of investing in the 1920s versus investing in the 1930s.
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[30:28] we're getting towards the end of that secular bull market period. Valuations are elevated. We've got a lot of exuberance in the markets. um you know there's a whole variety of demographic issues that are going on with the economy that are going to lead up to having this period of low returns for a decade or two
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[32:25] if you just look at the historical length of secular bull markets, we're close to the end of this cycle. Next three, four years probably.
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[17:51] when you open next quarter, one or two of our major long-term metrics, particularly quarterly momentum, will be sitting on a floor that you cannot see on a price chart, but on a momentum chart, if you saw that chart, you'd say, 'Good grief, you better not break that floor.' Because if you do, you're going to implode. And that could be an event that happens later this summer.
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[38:17] I'm not saying it's not going to happen, but I'm just saying there's so many tailwinds right now. It's it's a it's dangerous to just stand in front of that juggernaut until at least you see evidence that things are starting to deteriorate in the big numbers.
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[33:06] that money that they pushed in at that point or whatever they did there that that you can't just pull it back. So that it will drive the market for a few months more but the impact of it the momentum of it the force of it will will slow down and then I'm expecting to see it go straight back on that line that we've seen for so many years
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[13:15] Yeah, I think it's the latter. Yeah, I mean there just isn't a lot of basic support for the economy, US economy as I mentioned earlier in our conversation. And uh as a result, I I think we're very like very likely to have a considerable recession and sell off in in stocks, you know, the whole the whole company apparatus that comes with a weakening economy and recession.
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[32:09] as you get into, uh, fall, particularly near the election or post-election, uh, you have to be incredibly cautious what happens between now and then. Uh, very well could see a little bit more of this.
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[33:07] you see a timing window of of after the summer as more likely.
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[10:27] I think you faded here... if you want to make a market call, which I don't like making, I think I I'd sell out rather than buy it.
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[8:27] valuations in the general equities market now are quite overvalued in my view and I think you'll see a disconnect. you see a reconnection commodities versus the S&P as we probably get some of the air out of this bubble in the markets.
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[35:00] even though I think the stock market's in a bubble, usually bubbles only collapse when monetary policy tightens up. So, so what this means is that well, okay, we're in a bubble. Maybe the bubble isn't going to pop because the money the the monetary policy it's not tightening doesn't appear to be in the cards.
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[25:52] You always have you every so often eight ten years you have a generational bare market. Well, we haven't had one. We've gone longer than normal since 2010 without one. But bare markets don't really crash particularly. They they just roll over real slowly for three or four or five months and then they pick up steam over time. That's why people can't they can't see it. They're just sort of drifting off. And then the last part of that bare market is when it gets really nasty. That's when you lose twothirds of the value.
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[0:00] our conclusion is somewhere between 65% and about 80% the market enters into a stochcastic regime in which the possibility of explosive volatility and a 1987 style crash becomes not a probability but almost a certainty. So we're unfortunately very close. We're gaining about 4% a year in passive share right now. So at that 65% lower level, we're you know 2 and a half years out.
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[14:14] the broad stock market has never been more overvalued than it is today, driven by this AI boom, bubble, whatever you want to call it
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[5:42] The new highs we just saw, I think, are transient. I think it we we we thought it would occur and we thought that probably it would extend into this month and i suspect you may even make higher highs this month than you did last.
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The prediction claimed higher highs in May 2026 than April 2026 (ATH reference $7272.52 on 2026-05-01); the period high reached $7599.38 on 2026-05-29, which exceeds the April high, confirming the prediction.
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[13:03] multi-year bare trend? Sorry, multi-year bare trend. Yeah. But the question is what does it what is goes with it? What other assets go with it? Where will it how much down will it go? I don't know that I can say that most of the bare markets in US history of the last 100 years last two and a half to three years the dimension of the decline varies. Usually they're at least 50%.
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[0:00] I still believe uh because momentum is very overbought here because relative strength is very overbought here that we could see a bit of a pullback you know back toward this deviation to the 20-day moving average is very large the deviation to the 100 and the 50-day is is very very large. This is a very big gap over the 50-day moving average. So you're eventually going to get a correction back to this level.
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The prediction called for a pullback to the 20-day or 50-day moving averages due to overbought conditions, implying a decline from the prediction date price of $7200.75, but the period low was $7174.12 (only a ~0.4% dip) and the price then rallied 5.7% to $7609.78 by the target date, never experiencing a meaningful pullback toward those moving averages.
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[4:52] I do think we could see the markets potentially rally another six, seven percent to the upside, the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ, maybe even more than that, depending on the time frame we look at.
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[0:00] What I say longterm is I'm I'm bearish. I do believe we're coming into a huge market correction and it's going to devastate most investors.
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[5:57] The S&P 500 could move all the way up to about 8,500. And so that is a obviously a very significant move. That is about a 20% move.
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[14:15] I predict that many of the grammar stocks of today they're going to be down 50% 80% 90%. And you know that's that's based on history. Okay? This is not just an extreme valuation based on history. This is what happens to the high-f flyers uh during big bare markets.
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[28:55] I think when the the stock market has a 30 to 50% correction, it's going to pull gold, silver down with it.
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[17:40] I think you can kind of pull back a little bit and be a little bit cautious. So even today, right, the S&P's not doing quite as well as the, you know, semiconductor.
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[18:03] if you think we are going to have um the the positive effects of the the rate cuts that commenced 19 months ago. I would theorize and I have theorized and I've got the charts out there on X that you could see the rate of growth on S&P 500 profits peak out in the out years of this decade
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[14:04] Um I do suspect that we, you know, potentially give back probably 3 to 5% of the 12% maybe that we have done. So that likely could happen between now and the middle part of May if what I'm thinking is correct.
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The prediction claimed a 3-5% decline from the prediction date price of $7108.4, but the period low was $7046.55 (also on the prediction date itself), representing only a 0.87% decline, far short of the 3-5% drop predicted.
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[21:04] I expect the markets are going to rally really into the latter part of July probably mid August. I think it's actually going to be a pretty decent uh rally.
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[24:44] I I don't view those as being uh something that add a lot of value for people. Uh honestly, if I had to give people something that I thought might be a better sticking point as to my views is that this year is going to be a choppy year uh full of both declines and also big sharp advances and and but I think the market ends higher.
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[8:30] And what I predict's going to happen is in my generation, I'm a Trump and I are the same age. We wrote two books together. This one here is Trump and myself. And we're very concerned about what's going to happen. is it's like you know that the cartoon Peanuts with Charlie Brown and Lucy where Lucy holds the football and she says come on Charlie Brown come on kick the ball and Charlie Brown says no you're going to pull it away from me no I won't so Charlie Brown winds up and Lucy convinces that she won't pull the football away and Charlie Brown goes charging ahead kicks she pulls the football away and he falls in his butt that's what they're going to do to the boomers because in 1974 was the petro dollar when we guaranteed Saudi Arabia we protect them and also 1974. So I look I look at this from the most pessimistic point of view possible. my generation and boomer generation is being set up because when this S&P 500 blows and crashes, then we're going to be more homeless people than ever before and there'll be boomers who one time had jobs and had money and they're going to steal their wealth via the pension.
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[25:32] wait for the stock market to crash because if this takes off the way I think it will, that market will eventually catch up with reality.
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[14:34] the death cross, I think, is going to be right around 5,500 on the S&P. So the S&P goes below 5,500, gold goes above it. That's the death cross.
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[2:24] the markets are threatening and pushing up to maybe hit all-time highs here in the um next couple of sessions.
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The S&P 500 hit a period high of $7147.52 on 2026-04-17, surpassing the all-time high of $7002.28 set on 2026-01-28, confirming the prediction that it would hit all-time highs within the next couple of sessions.
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[28:41] You can see here the S&P 500 has potential to rally another 10 or so percent. And then if it if it continues from there, we could see it go another 20%.
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[2:14] I would be surprised if over the next two quarters we don't have some more weakness back. It doesn't mean doesn't mean a bare market. It just means that wouldn't surprise me to go back where we were earlier.
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[0:20] I think this economy, especially in the second half of the year when a lot of the short-term stimulus falls by the wayside, uh is going to be showing some significant strain.
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[0:00] We are nowhere near a bare market. Not not even by a moonshot close.
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[28:41] S&P 500 up or down by the end of the year? Up.
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[1:29] we think that the fundamental condition of US stocks remains very good and in fact if you take two steps back and think about the weakness that we've seen in several areas of US stocks namely tech stocks uh stocks have become more attractive from a valuation standpoint number one but what's really interesting David is that earnings growth and earnings estimates for the S&P 500 in certain sectors including tech uh financials would be another one have actually gone up since we talked class. So I think this malaise, the conflict is yet again some noise that investors with respect to emotions and fear are driving them hopefully uh not but they do drive uh investors to make uh snap decisions on selling equities. We clearly do not believe that that's the right thing to be doing right now. And we do believe that uh the US market will continue to be on pace for this bull market number one. But number two is part of this big 25 year secular bull market that we've been calling for since 2009.
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[5:02] I'm still looking longer term for that 40 to 60% haircut in the markets. I do think that we're going to go into a bare market. I do think that we are going significantly lower.
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[11:55] I believe this rally is not like any of the previous rallies we had... this will be a much more sustained rally in the long term once we get rid of the uh negative headwinds uh of of the daily uh headlines
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[23:53] I can confidently predict with with great sorrow and dismay that the returns going forward will not be any clo anywhere close to 7% in real terms.
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[1:45] So, I kind of see the path of the stock market being like that. probably will end up at a lower level at the end of this year than where we are today.
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[19:38] Yeah, I think the market overall is going lower, but there are places in the market that are that are outperforming dramatically.
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[0:00] And I still think this will turn out to be a 10 to 15% correction. And we're halfway through that and that it it could could happen in this week or or next week.
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The prediction claimed a 10-15% correction that would bottom out within two weeks, but the period low of $6474.94 represents only a 1.53% decline from the prediction date price of $6575.32, falling far short of the claimed 10-15% magnitude.
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[17:59] and uh uh you know I'm I'm still using 7700 uh by by the end of u of the of the year
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[8:43] I think that it's going to be very hard for the market to break through that ceiling between now and the midterms. Um, wouldn't shock me at all if we go back up to kind of those highs or or if we just go sideways for a while. But I think it's going to be very hard to break out of that, you know, sideways channel uh between now and the election.
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[8:08] I don't think this is something that takes us to new highs because of that major worry.
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[33:34] And I don't think we're going to move in a fundamentally new direction until the bottom falls out of the market. And I think that's coming.
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[15:24] Logic dictates we probably are coming back to that $5700 target, which would be the low end of the parallel. And I would argue that that's a year-end or early 2027 target
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[12:35] And guess what? Eight to 10% is what JP Morgan thinks the S&P will do between now and the end of the year. Their year-end target was 7500. They lowered it to 7200. We're at 6600.
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[22:15] the first crash is the fastest and hardest. Stocks will go down 40 to 50% in two to four months. In other words, it's they're going to go down 80 or 90 because bubbles don't go down 50% like normal bare markets
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[9:25] it does appear to us, yeah, that we could be in for a bit of a retrenchment in the markets just based upon fundamentals
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[30:25] So, you can see this market rally back above the 200 day moving average next week. Uh get back to 6720, 6750 in there, that wouldn't be surprising at all.
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The prediction claimed a rally back above the 200-day moving average to 6720-6750, but the period high during the target week was only $6651.62 on 2026-03-23, which falls short of the claimed 6720-6750 price target range by at least $68.38.
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[0:06] Like this is the beginning of the third 50% draw down in the S&P 500 since 2000.
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[28:50] by 1981 49% of the S&P 500's composition was in materials industrials and energy 49%. We're right now maybe 14. We're nowhere near I Are we going back to 49? No. But are we going at 25 30? Yes.
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[25:48] we're going to get a rally maybe starting in the next week or so that goes through April and then we're going to get into summer, which is premidterm elections. I'd expect a lot more chop and volatility during the summer, get through till we get through the midterm elections and then a rally into year end.
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[10:17] it wouldn't surprise me at all if we were down in the next, you know, let's say 6 weeks 8 to 15%.
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The period low was $6316.91 on trading day 11, representing a decline of only 4.76% from the prediction date price of $6632.19, which does not meet the minimum 8% decline threshold claimed.
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[18:46] I think it's going to last long enough for the market to go down. Okay. And then that market going down will force Trump to basically T.A.C.O..
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The prediction claimed the market would go down, but ^GSPC rose 9.1% by target date with the period low only reaching about -6.9% before recovering to new highs.
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[8:33] the stock market is in a bubble. It's in bubble territory and and it wasn't in bubble territory in 1978. The the PE ratio was eight. Now it's you know up in 29 28.
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[12:27] I would think the markets will want to run uh somewhere all the way up to we could very easily see it the S&P 500 run up to like um 600 and or 6,945 somewhere up here.
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The prediction claimed the S&P 500 could run up to 6,945, but the period high during the 23 trading days was only 6,901.01 on the prediction date itself, falling 43.99 points short of the 6,945 target, so the specific price target was not met.
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[24:47] 8,000. So, think about it. We've had that big, we've had a big broad-based rally that we were expecting. Now what we need if we get technology kicking in then you get the mag seven kicking in and driving that that S&P higher. Yes.
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[6:12] And again, I'm looking at a downside move by mid year back to about 6,100 on the S&P. That would be our first major technical support.
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The period low of $6,316.91 on 2026-03-30 did not reach the predicted 6,100 level (which would require a decline from $6,837.75 to at or below 6,100), falling short of the target by approximately $216.
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[7:10] my guess is is even though we'll have plenty of bounces eventually we do find our way all the way down to 5600 or so on the S&P
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[6:15] my advice has been, and it's been on record, that we were going to potentially ek slightly over 50,000. There'd be a celebration by the don't worry happy crowd on Wall Street. Little did I know that the attorney general would create a new stock sale signal for the next generation with her Dow 50,000 comment. But you're right, it's rolling over. I believe the major top has been put in and I believe we're going to go into a more consolidated sideways to down movement for the rest of the year in the stock market.
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[0:00] I think the next year and a half you're going to have new highs and recent new lows in the market both.
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[15:59] which is out of what we could probably be getting 1.2 trillion of buybacks in total for S&P 500 this year. So, which is growth over last year.
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[0:00] 2026 is the year of the shakeout. There will be places to hide. It's just they'll be fairly defensive in nature.
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[32:52] Last three months we've been arguing it's got to continue up though. Get above 7,000 which it did today but probably even more probably at least get into February before it decides to roll over again. But we think it's a broad topping process of major proportions. is going into a massive bare market
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[10:39] I don't think we're going to get that pronounced of a draw down or average draw down this year because you do have uh a level of fiscal stimulus coming through in the form of tax returns jumping 40 50% uh you know 50 some odd billion dollars going in consumer's pockets and you are in an easing cycle
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[24:26] We're strong through April, very weak into the election, recovery year end.
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[3:47] So the markets are likely to gap lower, potentially even lower from today. And I think we could see bargain hunters step back in and buy things back up. So again, it's a news-driven move. I you can't really trust news-driven moves. And um same same with price gaps. The gap in prices should rebound. So, that's what I'm expecting to happen uh probably Tuesday and Wednesday as the market stabilizes and recovers from this little news-driven bout of selling.
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The prediction claimed the S&P 500 would 'stabilize and recover' by Tuesday and Wednesday (Jan 21-22), and the data shows the period low of $6789.05 on Jan 20 represented only a 0.1% decline from the prediction date price of $6796.86, followed by a recovery to a period high of $6934.75 on Jan 22 (a 1.7% gain), confirming the stabilization and recovery pattern claimed.
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[14:34] Now, it's not a whole lot of upside from where it is right now. It's about um as of today, you and I are speaking, it's about 4 and a.5% to the upside. So, uh, that's 7,225
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[7:34] I think we're getting closer and closer, like weeks potentially from a major market top.
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The prediction claimed a 'major market top within weeks,' which is a bearish prediction expecting a significant peak followed by decline. The period high of $7002.28 on 2026-01-28 (6 trading days after prediction) represents a 3.0% gain from the prediction date price of $6796.86, followed by a decline to $6606.49 (-2.8%) by the target date. While the market did reach a peak and decline, the prediction was vague about the magnitude of the 'major top' and the subsequent move was relatively modest; however, the market did produce a top that declined notably, making the core claim of a market top occurring correct.
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[39:39] with all this pressure Trump is putting on them, the Fed has pivoted towards loosening. And that means that the stock market bubble will probably stay with us.
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[4:45] it implies that yes we could see a pullback uh in the S&P 500 like we did today because the top 41 uh uh AI related stocks comprise 47% of the S&P. So you do have this huge concentration and if that sector gets weak that becomes problematic for the S&P
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The prediction claimed a pullback could occur in the S&P 500 due to AI stock weakness, and the period low of $6473.52 (trading day 43) represents a -6.7% decline from the prediction date price of $6940.01, confirming that a pullback did indeed occur during the target window.
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[12:06] the technical underpinnings right now suggest decline should be somewhere between 3 and 7%.
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[12:57] I expect to see 40 to 60% in the equities. And I'm not saying it'll be all next year, but I think over the the next run will be 40 to 60% lower.
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[28:07] The uh S&P 500 90% and the NASDAQ 95%. If we just go back to the last major low
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[5:49] I think the big thing that's coming is a significant unwind of the AI trade. And whether that's actually the AI bubble popping and a and a waterfall event in the markets or something a little less harmful, I'm not sure.
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[15:28] I think next year is going to be a down year for the total return. I don't know how much maybe reverting towards 5,000 S&P 500.
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[36:56] my view, which I've been saying for some months now, is that 2026 is likely at best to be a rangebound market for the S&P
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[5:01] That said, there is a huge bifurcation in our economy in the sense of the bottom 50% of people have been under the gun for probably four years as the cost of living ramped up. Their incomes haven't kept up um pace with that. uh the top 10% of wage earners represent almost 50% of spending and they're deriving their confidence from what's happening in the financial markets namely the stock market uh and so forth. So you have this split screen if you will where the top segment of the uh economy is doing really well. They're kind of carrying the water for the rest of the economy. That's why I think if we see a protracted bare market, which is my expectation, David, sometime over the next window of time, we're going to enter a secular bare market.
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[29:27] My bet would be seasonality is usually very favorable. Um the selling pressure that we've seen hit some of the AI related stocks. Some of these stocks are down 20 30%. Um so my bet would be David is we'll see another rally as we go into end of this year early next year.
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The prediction claimed a rally going into end of 2025 and early 2026, and the period high of $7002.28 on 2026-01-28 represented a +3.5% gain from the prediction date price of $6765.88, confirming the rally occurred during the predicted timeframe despite the price being lower at the target date close.
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[3:25] I'm in the camp that the stock market has topped for at least a 10% 15% correction.
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The prediction claimed a 10-15% correction would occur, but the period low of $6521.92 represents only a 2.2% decline from the prediction date price of $6672.41, falling significantly short of the 10% minimum threshold required for the prediction to be correct.
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[11:31] going into 2026. I think it's going to be a totally different story.
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[19:17] I think we're walking through a landmine and I think we're very close to the markets going for a nose dive.
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The prediction claimed the markets would go for a 'nose dive' (a sharp, significant decline), and while the period low of $6473.52 on 2026-03-20 represents a -3.9% decline from the prediction date price of $6735.35, the market also rallied to $7002.28 (a +3.96% gain) during the period, demonstrating that the market did not experience a clear 'nose dive' but rather volatility with both significant gains and losses, making the directional prediction only partially correct.
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[20:39] My baseline is the firewall will hold and we'll get to the other side of this 6 n 12 months down the road. We'll get some monetary fiscal stimulus and the economy should regain some traction. We should avoid recession.
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[19:41] what should you expect stocks to return you over the next say 5 to 10 years about 6%.
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[14:54] The daily data are suggesting down in the near term as well into October, November.
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The prediction claimed the S&P 500 would decline in the near term into October and November, but the period low of $6521.92 represents only a 2.8% decline from the prediction date price of $6711.2, while the index ultimately closed 2.1% higher on the target date, showing the market did not sustain a meaningful downward move as predicted.
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[39:08] there's an upside target around 680 SPY. So, this this target is showing us we've got about 3% upside.
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The prediction claimed 3% upside to a target of 680 SPY (approximately $6800 on S&P 500), and the period high reached $6945.77, which represents a 4.6% gain from the prediction date price of $6637.97, exceeding the claimed 3% upside target.
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[25:35] I don't think they'll get anywhere close to hitting the numbers there. They're looking at 16% the estimates out there for increased earnings in 26. I don't think there's a a chance they can make that.
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[25:51] I think the US stock market is is potentially reaching the point the tipping point where where it will where the leaders will roll over and we'll see a a correction in the S&P. Uh I'm not looking for a crash or collapse but we'll probably get rotation out of those leaders
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[21:09] well here's my base case I started out the year I think this is going to be a down year for the stock market in the beginning of the third 50% draw down in the S&P 500 since the start of um since 2000.
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[3:32] typically around now into end of September that tends to be a pretty nasty stretch for markets and volatility tends to rise from here on going forward.
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The prediction claimed a 'nasty stretch with rising volatility' from mid-August through end of September, but the market only declined 1.6% from the prediction date ($6449.15) to the period low ($6343.86 on Aug 20), then recovered to close up 3.7% by the target date, showing neither a significant market decline nor sustained volatility consistent with a 'nasty stretch'.
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[11:19] I think there's more likely to be um you know downside surprises we let go out of the next six months
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The prediction claimed downside surprises were more likely over the next six months, but the S&P 500 experienced an overall 9.3% gain with a period low of only -0.47% from the prediction date, showing the market moved upward with minimal downside rather than experiencing downside surprises.
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[31:38] our base case is that we are in the second leg of a durable bull market that probably goes into the early 2030s. So any of these three, five, eight, I I I I I think we're our pullbacks this year are going to be contained to 3 to 8% if any.
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[37:16] 5800. Yeah, definitely based on what I'm seeing in the charts. Um, doesn't mean we can't get close to 7,000, but we'd have to fight through a lot of these big resistance levels at this point. And right now, again, it looks like the markets ignoring some of this good news with Nvidia.
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The prediction claimed the S&P 500 would drop to 5,800 by end of year, representing a 7.1% decline from the prediction date price of $6,243.76. The period low was $6,201.59 (0.68% decline), which did not reach the target of 5,800 or approach the claimed magnitude of decline, so the prediction is wrong.
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[34:51] No, I I look I think we'll push higher here into earnings season probably the next few weeks and then I think we got to consolidate some gains maybe uh you know August, September, October, grind sideways, maybe a little natural pullbacks etc and probably finish the year a little little stronger.
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The prediction claimed the S&P 500 would 'push higher through earnings season' (achieved with period high of $6945.77, up 11.5% from prediction price of $6227.42), then 'consolidate gains through August-October' (the index did consolidate and grind sideways during this period), and 'finish the year stronger' (closed at $6845.5 on 12/31, up 9.9% from prediction date), so all three specific claims were validated by the price action.
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[3:25] I think we're seeing a pretty different circumstance right now which is expectations for future growth that are priced into the stock market are very high uh and remain very high and makes sense. you know, prices are basically at all-time highs, but at the same time, you're seeing a pretty rapid deceleration in the actual economic stats. And that sort of divergence suggests that we might be seeing uh a season of disappointment ahead when it comes to how the economy will perform relative to expectations.
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The prediction claimed a 'season of disappointment' due to growth expectations diverging from decelerating economic data, which is a bearish outlook expecting underperformance. However, the S&P 500 rose 10.3% from the prediction date to the target date close, and reached a period high of $6945.77 (11.6% gain), contradicting the bearish thesis that the market would experience disappointment.
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[0:32] I think the market still has upside to to go. Yes. Um I don't know that it's going to come necessarily this minute or this day. Sorry, I just want to turn my phone. Um but I think that certainly the second half of the year, uh there's a good chance that the market's going to go higher
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The prediction claimed the market would 'go higher' in the second half of 2025, and the period high of $6945.77 on 2025-12-26 represents a 15.3% gain from the prediction date price of $6025.17, confirming the market did indeed go higher during the specified timeframe.
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[17:20] I think the regime uncertainty will lead eventually to what? Looking ahead, it'll lead to a more serious slowdown and a recession in the United States. And with a recession, of course, you have topline revenues going down, margins going down, profits going down, and and you know, the stock market that the pees are going to come down.
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The prediction claimed the stock market would decline due to recession with falling revenues, margins, profits and P/E ratios, but the S&P 500 rose 14.7% from the prediction date ($5967.84) to the target date ($6845.50), with the period low only down 0.4% from the prediction price, failing to show the predicted decline.
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[19:01] I've been terming these the four, five, six markets that over the next several years, cash will return you 4%, bonds will return you around five, and stocks because of their high valuation will return you around six.
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[12:22] I still think that at some point the bottom is going to fall out of this market and we will see a major drop... this market goes down 10, 20, 30%.
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The prediction claimed a 10-30% drop would occur, but the period low of $5943.23 on 2025-06-23 represents only a 1.6% decline from the prediction date price of $6038.81, which falls well short of the claimed 10% minimum threshold.
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[10:36] I I would say this rollover should be should be starting to happen somewhere right up here. I think we could potentially push a little bit higher. I think somewhere between where we are right now and maybe just breaking to new all-time highs nominally for a few days or something. I think I think we're in this this zone for the market to roll over.
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The prediction claimed a rollover should start 'somewhere around current levels' with potential to reach new all-time highs for a few days before rolling over; instead, the S&P 500 reached a period low of $5943.23 (0.95% decline) on day 10 before rallying to $6427.02 (7.1% gain) by the target date, showing a continued uptrend rather than the predicted rollover and decline.
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[4:43] this is still a bounce and it's sucking investors and traders in, uh, just before it's probably going to roll over and I think head a whole lot lower
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The prediction claimed the S&P 500 would 'roll over and head a whole lot lower,' but instead the index only declined 2.1% from the prediction date price ($5892.58) to the period low ($5767.41 on day 7), then rallied 6.4% by the target date, contradicting the bearish forecast of a significant decline.
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[12:33] I think in the near term the stock market is going to be strong.
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The prediction claimed the stock market would be 'strong in the near term' with a bullish sentiment, and the period high of $6532.65 represents a 16.0% gain from the prediction date price of $5631.28, exceeding the directional claim and demonstrating market strength during the 4-month window.
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[17:11] And I guess I would just say that it could be right, but it could be right later with after another 10 15% decline, which would be my suspicion is what uh we're looking at.
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The prediction claimed a 10-15% decline would occur, but the period low of $5578.64 represents only a 1.27% decline from the prediction date price of $5650.38, falling far short of the claimed 10-15% magnitude.
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[3:06] Our base case scenario is that we are in what we've been saying is a W-shaped market in a U-shaped economy. And what I mean by that is that if you think about the shape of a W, we're sort of on the inside left of the W. And we're expecting over the next one to two quarters that the markets will eventually have to uh sell off again and price in the inside right of the W
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The prediction specifically claimed the S&P 500 would 'sell off again' over the next one to two quarters, but the period low of $5578.64 on 2025-05-07 was only 0.45% below the prediction date price of $5604.14, failing to demonstrate any meaningful selloff before the market rallied 22.1% to reach $6840.2 by the target date.
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[12:23] we're looking at potentially a 15% to another 23 24% drop to the downside. Uh, From where we are right now.
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The prediction claimed a 15-24% drop from the $5569.06 prediction date price, which would require a period low of $4232-$4733.70, but the actual period low was $5433.24 (a 2.4% decline), falling far short of the 15% minimum threshold.
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[13:50] I think we're in a bare market in US stock market. It's early days. I think it'd be we'd be delightful if we end this this year not down 20% or more.
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The prediction claimed S&P 500 would be down 20% or more by end of 2025; the period low of $5433.24 represents only a 2.3% decline from the prediction date price of $5560.83, falling far short of the required 20% threshold.
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[0:00] You are going to see the equities which rallied yesterday and today they are going to tank again in a big way.
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The prediction claimed equities would 'tank again in a big way,' but the period low of $5433.24 represents only a 1.7% decline from the prediction date price of $5528.75, which does not constitute a significant crash, while the period high reached 5% gains, contradicting the bearish forecast.
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[6:47] I expect the market to hit the 7500 or so in 27.
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[14:16] we could see it pull back to about 4600 all the way down to about 4100. So in in the reality from the ultimate highs we're looking at about a 25 uh to roughly 30% pullback
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The prediction claimed a 25-30% pullback to the 4600-4100 range from highs; however, the period low of $5101.63 represents only a 5.5% decline from the prediction date price of $5396.63, falling well short of the 25-30% pullback magnitude claimed.
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[29:43] Do you think that the worst is behind us for equities volatility? Oh, no. I I think things things are just warming up
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The prediction claimed volatility would 'get worse' and 'things are just warming up,' but the market experienced a brief dip of only 5.6% from the prediction date before rallying 26.6% to close the period significantly higher, indicating volatility did not materialize as a dominant feature and the bearish outlook was contradicted by strong market performance.
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[5:17] I think the skew is definitely still negative into April earnings.
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The prediction claimed negative skew (more downside risk) into April earnings, but the S&P 500 experienced a 4.56% decline from prediction date to period low followed by a strong 10% recovery to close, demonstrating positive upside momentum and lower realized downside risk than predicted, contradicting the bearish skew thesis.
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[0:17] we're we're probably going at best case we're going into recession. Stock markets are going to go down more.
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The prediction claimed stock markets would 'go down more,' but the S&P 500 reached a period low of $4835.04 (14.1% decline from $5633.07) before recovering to $6845.5 (21.5% gain) by year-end, meaning markets ultimately went up significantly rather than down as predicted.
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[2:07] I think we are in striking distance in the next uh more or less week or two uh to actually enter bare market territory. And if we take a look at the S&P 500 using technical analysis, using a Fibonacci extension, which tells us based on the current price action, the past price action, where price should go, that is going to give us where the full downside target is, which is about 15 uh 5183 on the SP500
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The prediction claimed S&P 500 would drop to 5183 within 1-2 weeks, and the period low of 4835.04 on trading day 5 clearly exceeded this target, making the specific price target achieved during the prediction window.
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[6:39] I think we're we're primed and ready for another 50 plus percent selloff breaking the 2022 lows on the on the S 500
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[4:51] we should have some type of bounce up into like March 24th March 25th area
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[11:46] I I'd say likely for short-term rally now... so it might it could be get a nice sharp rally May last two days five days 10 days it may take some indices back up to the above the previous highs in on a minor basis but at this point don't think I don't think that we're going to see um continuation of the bull market
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[10:48] we're probably bothering at this time... based on probability we have to say we're probably bothering at this time
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[20:41] the likely evidence is that we'll see much lower lows before this is over but the current lad that you're seeing is not likely to be the a a a not like to be a continuation it's likely there'll be a a break and the market will rally back before the market continues lower
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