Peter Tchir Predictions

Macro Analyst

Track Peter Tchir's public market predictions and forecast accuracy. Each prediction is recorded from the date it was published to its estimated deadline, then graded correct or wrong based on the outcome.

22 forecasts 1 correct 21 pending

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22 forecasts

Person Subject Forecast* Source Date Deadline** Outcome

Peter Tchir Fed Funds Rate The Federal Reserve will not hike interest rates

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[9:19] So I think we are not going to see a hike. I think people have been too conditioned to talk about the reaction function. I think I think Wars' reaction function is not going to be that different than prior Feds.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Thoughtful Money 2026-08-16 2027-08-16 pending

Peter Tchir Treasury Yields 2-year Treasury yields will come down

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[11:01] I think it's going to be more the two-year in can come down because that's directly affected. There's an ETF. It's a little bit aggressive. It's a TUA is the ETF and it actually tries to invest in two-year treasuries using futures to create longer duration because otherwise, you know, you buy and sell two-year Treasury ETFs, they just don't move very much. So, if you're aggressive on this, like own some Tua and I will probably add to it. Um, because I like that exposure to two-year

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Thoughtful Money 2026-08-16 2027-08-16 pending

Peter Tchir 10-Year Treasury Yield 10-year Treasury yields will remain range-bound between 4.5% and 5%

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[13:08] Going to see a steeper yield curve for quite a period. I think it's going to be difficult to get 10 years below four and a half%. I don't think they go crazy above 5%. So, I think 10 years to me are fairly rangebound, four and a half to 5%. Unless something changes in the economy.

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Thoughtful Money 2026-08-16 2027-08-16 pending

Peter Tchir Yield Curve The yield curve will steepen for an extended period

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[13:08] Going to see a steeper yield curve for quite a period.

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Thoughtful Money 2026-08-16 2027-08-16 pending

Peter Tchir Lqd High-quality corporate bonds (LQD) will outperform long-dated Treasuries (TLT)

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[15:43] I would much rather own LQD, which to me is the benchmark for longdated corporate bonds, um, versus TLT, which is 20 to 30year treasuries. I have zero interest right now in being long TLT. I do like things like LQD, which is that exposure to longerdated corporate credit, which is becoming very overweight to these, you know, hyperscalers. And I think you'll get some volatility around that, but you're getting paid well over 6% now in some of these cases, or close to 6% for that risk.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Thoughtful Money 2026-08-16 2027-08-16 pending

Peter Tchir Iran There will not be a major military escalation in the Iran conflict, and the US will back off almost completely

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[17:44] I think we're not going to have a major escalation on the military side. Having said that, you know, Trump might surprise us all in this weekend and do something wild. Um, but I think, you know, the attempts now to do something on the financial side aren't going to work. I think we're going to back off almost completely.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Thoughtful Money 2026-08-16 2026-12-31 pending

Peter Tchir Iran By September 2026, the US will declare a win in the Iran conflict and de-escalate without achieving its stated objectives

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[21:26] my base case is that somehow we slowly stop talking about this. Maybe we use this last two weeks of August when people are on vacation not to talk about it as much and somehow come September we've declared a win and move on.

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Thoughtful Money 2026-08-16 2026-09-30 pending

Peter Tchir US Drone Warfare Capability The US will not develop true asymmetric drone warfare capability for 6 months to a year

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[27:08] my sense is this isn't 2 to 3 months down the road. This is 6 months to a year before we really develop true asymmetric warfare of our own

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Thoughtful Money 2026-08-16 2027-08-16 pending

Peter Tchir Supply Chains Global supply chains will shift significantly toward Central and South America

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[35:32] I think we're going to focus so much more on Central and South America for supply chains because that's where we can control China has less influence so I think people are paying more

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Thoughtful Money 2026-08-16 2028-08-16 pending

Peter Tchir Healthcare Sector The ProSec/production-for-security investment theme will hit biotech and pharma within 6 months to a year, driving significant initiatives in that sector.

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[0:29] I think we have not yet seen it hit biotech and pharma. I I think that's probably 6 months to a year away cuz it's more complex. But I think we're going to see a lot of initiatives there.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Thoughtful Money 2026-05-10 2027-05-10 pending

Peter Tchir Rare Earth And Critical Minerals Rare earth and critical minerals will see increased processing and refining capacity, making it one of the biggest ProSec opportunities in the next 6 to 12 months.

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[33:40] I think I like it in the rare earth and critical minerals type space where I think we're going to see more ability to process and refine these.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Thoughtful Money 2026-05-10 2027-05-10 pending

Peter Tchir Electricity Generation Sector Electricity production and grid infrastructure companies will continue to perform well over the next 6 to 12 months as a key ProSec trade.

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[33:49] Electricity production, anything to do with the grid and the infrastructure around that. I think we've already seen like I think I already mentioned you know the cats and the deers of the world have been doing very well

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Thoughtful Money 2026-05-10 2027-05-10 pending

Peter Tchir Oil Oil prices will remain higher for longer as the Middle East takes significant time to rebuild energy production, even as near-term front-end prices come down.

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[3:07] yes the front end of oil is coming down. I think we're below 90 or right around 90 um on Thursday on WTI. But I think some of the other longer term contracts are still fairly elevated. So I think we're going to be kind of dealing with this higher for longer. It's going to take a lot of time for the Middle East to rebuild their energy production.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Thoughtful Money 2026-05-10 2027-05-10 pending

Peter Tchir Rare Earth And Critical Minerals Venezuela will see a surge in rare earth and critical minerals production and processing, emerging as a key supply source that is easier to refine than doing so domestically in the US.

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[11:11] I think the real surprise is going to be a rare earth and critical minerals surge there where not only can we get the rarest and critical minerals there, but it's going to be far easier to process and refine them there than it is on the US.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Thoughtful Money 2026-05-10 2027-05-10 pending

Peter Tchir European Defense And Tech Sector European defense and technology companies (e.g. Nokia, Ericsson) will grow as Europe increasingly invests in its own defense and tech infrastructure rather than relying on the US.

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[15:20] I'm starting now to put these same sort of logistics and um investments again the equivalence of cats the equivalent of deer into Europe because I do think they are going to grow and they're going to do some more of their own tech. Just look at Nokia for example. It's been on fire and my belief is part of that is Europe is going to start trying to incorporate their own, you know, businesses more in their own strategies.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Thoughtful Money 2026-05-10 2027-05-10 pending

Peter Tchir European Stocks Europe is 3 to 6 months away from a decisive 'whatever it takes' moment where it commits to unleashing its own domestic energy development.

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[14:15] I I think they're still gosh probably 3 to 6 months away from having a groggy type moment. You know, the whatever it takes, but I I feel they finally are realized like we have to let Shell unleash. We have to unleash Total uh BP. Let us develop our own energy

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Thoughtful Money 2026-05-10 2026-11-10 pending

Peter Tchir Defense Stocks Drone production will skyrocket globally as nations rapidly build up low-cost defense capacity in response to recent conflicts.

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[26:34] I think drone production is just going to skyrocket across the globe. I think everyone just looks at this and if you want to get something done cheap, quickly, you do it that way.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Thoughtful Money 2026-05-10 2027-05-10 pending

Peter Tchir Commercial Real Estate In US Heartland Commercial real estate and economic activity in the US heartland, particularly low per capita GDP red states, will outperform as reshoring and ProSec manufacturing investment drives redevelopment of those regions.

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[34:16] I'm also starting to really focus on I'm trying to figure out the right way commercial real estate wise I I think you're going to see a redevelopment of the heartland of America... Low per capita GDP red states I think are going to do very well.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Thoughtful Money 2026-05-10 2028-05-10 pending

Peter Tchir S&P 500 S&P 500 will underperform semiconductors in the near term due to market positioning concerns

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[17:40] I think you can kind of pull back a little bit and be a little bit cautious. So even today, right, the S&P's not doing quite as well as the, you know, semiconductor.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Wealthion 2026-04-24 2026-07-24

Peter Tchir Bitcoin Bitcoin and crypto will outperform as a catch-up trade after lagging semiconductors

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[19:10] So, I think maybe you want to take a shot there and reload on some of the crypto given you know, again, I thought it was interesting Iran actually talked about when they were talking about getting their $2 million payments about getting it paid in crypto.

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Wealthion 2026-04-24 2026-10-24 pending

Peter Tchir Defense Stocks Defense stocks and critical metals will be strong investment opportunities due to military readiness needs

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[0:18] This is a great opportunity to invest in these kinds of capabilities because it is absolutely essential. Starts with critical metals.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Wealthion 2026-04-24 2027-04-24 pending

Peter Tchir European Infrastructure European infrastructure will be a strong risk-on investment opportunity driven by data centers and AI

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[18:39] And so I actually want to look for European infrastructure. I think that's another place to be kind of very risk on the whole data center and AI thing.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Wealthion 2026-04-24 2027-04-24 pending