Jay Pelosky Predictions

[0:00] The US is acting like a bad old emerging market but trading at a huge premium and so we're big believers that over the next several years uh the US premium is going to dissipate and that's across financial assets. So the PE multiple is going to uh shrink the difference between US and rest of the world.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[12:47] we believe we're in the early innings of a secular leadership change away from the United States to the rest of the world led by emerging market equity.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[18:20] you definitely want to be underweight bonds and you want to stay underweight bonds to your question because we are in a tripolar world spending super cycle and it's on existential issues like AI like climate like defense in other words people are going to spend they're going to continue to spend they have to spend and so no you definitely don't want to be in developed market sovereign debt uh for years. I I mean I I would imagine we look out at this point we're looking out towards 2030 and uh we think this uh tripolar world spending super cycle is sustainable through that period

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[32:25] the dollar is going to depreciate uh and that's going to continue to provide a tailwind for the rest of the world. Everyone likes to say, well, it hasn't happened yet. The point is that it's happening, but it's it's happening slowly and will just build over time.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[19:49] what should replace bonds in the traditional 60/40 portfolio? Commodities... we're a big believer that you know the AI age... the digital eats the physical. In other words, you have no AI if you don't have physical commodities.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[21:35] Copper miners are printing money and are going to continue to print money for years and years. And so we're we we have a big position that's our favorite right now in copper miners.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[23:57] we're quite bullish Europe. Uh Europe is the big winner from the dual ceasefires. We expect the US Iran deal. So more than a ceasefire, I guess, and a ceasefire in Russia and Ukraine.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[25:44] China is one of the last countries that's going to have to raise interest rates. It's finally defeating deflation which is one of the big themes we've been focused on. Uh and we think that is very bullish for Chinese corporate profits. We think that's very bullish for Chinese domestic investor allocation... we're very long uh the ashare market in China

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[24:02] We expect the US Iran deal. So more than a ceasefire, I guess, and a ceasefire in Russia and Ukraine. Uh we think that's way more likely than your prediction markets predict. I think right now that prediction is like 6% by the end of the summer. Uh we think it's much much higher.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[24:02] We expect the US Iran deal. So more than a ceasefire, I guess, and a ceasefire in Russia and Ukraine. Uh we think that's way more likely than your prediction markets predict.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[0:09] Iran as we call it is the single best advertisement for clean energy that one can imagine. Right? All of a sudden clean energy is not woke. It's not it's not crazy. It's simply clean, secure, available... we're big believers that this environment is very powerful.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[21:03] 2025 was year one of the US underperforming the rest of the world I think the US uh returns last year which were pretty good um ranked in the 60s. I think I think there was 50 or 60 other markets around the world that outperformed the US last year. U most of emerging markets did, Europe did, Japan did, etc., etc. And so, uh, we think we're in the very early stages of this. We think 2026 will be year two, uh, where the non- US markets outperform the US.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[41:45] And then third, and by the way, we watched the China 10-year government bond to get a sense of how China's doing on that deflation fight. Right now, it's at 1.85%. When we first wrote about this 6 months or so ago, it was at 1.6%. We think it's going to be over 2% by the end of the year.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[12:35] And guess what? Eight to 10% is what JP Morgan thinks the S&P will do between now and the end of the year. Their year-end target was 7500. They lowered it to 7200. We're at 6600.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[27:09] um emerging markets for 2026 and 2027 are forecast to have higher EPS growth than the United States.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.