Sam Burns Predictions
Chief Market Strategist at Mil Street Research
Track Sam Burns's public market predictions and forecast accuracy. Each prediction is recorded from the date it was published to its estimated deadline, then graded correct or wrong based on the outcome.
- Rankings only reflect predictions tracked on this site and do not represent a predictor's full record.
- Grading involves judgment and may not always be clear-cut.
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[9:40] Yeah, know I could certainly see that happening certainly with oil prices having come down um in the last month or two already. That's going to be the big swing factor in the headline number which is what these numbers are. Um and and so I think there were some other factors that are probably keeping the CPI up a little bit lately. So I think yeah, we could see a little bit of slowing from the 4.2% rate, which is, you know, pretty high for as these things go um in the next month or two.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
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[11:34] my guess is that uh uh we probably won't see $100 barrel on oil again soon. Uh but it may not go back to the 5060 where it was prior to the war.
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[20:57] I think maybe you get at one at most two quarter point rate hikes in the next 6 to 12 months from the Fed. And if if that's really all you're looking at, um, that's just not that big a deal.
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[25:02] my guess is probably not at this point simply because to some degree things like gold are sensitive to rates uh and certainly real rates in particular if those are going to go stay higher, you know, where they are go up, um then gold typically would not benefit from that. you would only see gold uh maybe getting another tailwind if rates were going to go down if the economy really slows down substantially.
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[25:56] I don't think it's going to um have a big boost given that basically all the tech AI stuff has kind of taken the you know the attention and the kind of the speculative money has gone away from those alternative u you know digital assets uh that they used to get you know a few years ago um that now people are more interested in in some of these uh you know tech AI related stuff rather than than Bitcoin and things
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[27:13] Uh yeah, I'd be surprised if there was a recession this year or in the next 12 months.
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[28:14] I think there could be a gradual you know weakening but nothing that would be to the level of a recession in the next 6 to 12 months.
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[23:09] Um, you know, my guess is that, you know, the tech space is still going to be the driver of what happens in the market. Uh, the sort of tech AI, you know, and kind of the adjacent areas and then kind of everything else.
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[24:14] I think the kind of the maybe call it the easy money part of the cycle is passed. Um and you're going to get into the kind of the choppier more volatile part of the uh kind of market cycle coming up in the next 6 to 12 months.
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[17:00] I think inflation is going to stay relatively high and be sort of somewhere close to what wage growth will be. I think right now real uh you know inflation adjusted disposable personal income growth is about zero year-over-year. So there's basically been almost no increase in in real disposable income.
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[33:41] even housing inflation rental you know prices in aggregate have been slowing down quite a bit for a couple years now um and I think that's probably going to continue as well um just from you know less demand from from you know lower immigration and the fact there has been at least some building going on
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[4:43] I think the Fed is kind of a bit stuck in terms of its ability to respond uh policy-wise uh as aggressively as they might otherwise. I think that inflation is telling them one thing and labor market is telling them something else. So, we're going to get, you know, maybe one or two more cuts over the next 6 months, but not a lot.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
From the prediction date of Nov 23, 2025, the Fed made exactly two more cuts (November and December 2025, each 25bps), then held rates steady at 3.50%–3.75% through at least April 2026 — matching the forecast of 'one or two more cuts, but not a lot.' (https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/interest-rate)
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[0:14] There's basically been the demand to move assets or kind of exposure out of the US and the US dollar in particular uh will probably go on for a while longer. At least as long as Trump is there and causing chaos.
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[35:38] I think gold may hold up. I think the demand to move um assets or kind of exposure out of the US and the US dollar in particular uh will probably go on for a while longer at least as long as Trump is there and causing chaos. I think a lot of central banks and a lot of you know people outside the US are trying to look for alternatives to the US dollar. There aren't a lot of good alternatives. So that's why gold has been has benefited.
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[34:44] I think that oil crude oil prices are probably going to be still struggle to go up. I think they're going to continue to maybe be sideways to down. I think the supply demand in crude oil is still still kind of weak.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
The prediction claimed oil prices would be 'sideways to down' due to weak supply-demand dynamics, but oil rose 51.2% from $58.84 to $88.98 by the target date and reached a period high of $119.48, representing a strong upward move that directly contradicts the bearish 'sideways to down' forecast.
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[35:24] I think it'll probably take time to to consolidate it at best um and before it it you know crypto does well again. I think they've kind of had their run for now.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
The prediction claimed crypto would 'take time to consolidate' and 'have had their run for now' (bearish sentiment), and Bitcoin did decline 18.7% by the target date with a period low of $60,074.20 representing a 30.8% drop from the $86,805.01 prediction price, validating the bearish consolidation thesis even though price partially recovered by the target date.
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[4:28] I think the growth rate of the US economy will be much slower than it would have been otherwise
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[11:19] I think there's more likely to be um you know downside surprises we let go out of the next six months
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
The prediction claimed downside surprises were more likely over the next six months, but the S&P 500 experienced an overall 9.3% gain with a period low of only -0.47% from the prediction date, showing the market moved upward with minimal downside rather than experiencing downside surprises.
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[24:18] I think there's definitely a chance that you'll see an uptick in the next month or two as well as some of these prices again come through with a slight lag
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
CPI rose to 2.9% annually in August and then 3.0% in September 2025 — the hottest annual pace since early 2025 — consistent with the predicted uptick. Tariff-sensitive goods like apparel and furniture showed price increases, and the St. Louis Fed confirmed tariffs explained roughly 0.5 percentage points of headline PCE inflation over June–August 2025. (https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_10242025.htm)
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[37:50] I think in 6 months, um, the odds are you going to be paying a higher price, not a lower one
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
By February 2026, durable goods prices were higher than in August 2025, with OpenBrand's CPI showing 15 consecutive months of month-over-month price increases, and the Yale Budget Lab confirming significant tariff pass-through to durable goods (over 100% implied pass-through by late 2025). However, the increases were more modest than many predicted — BLS data showed durable goods roughly flat month-to-month in February and only moderate annual gains. (https://openbrand.com/newsroom/blog/cpi-february-2026)