GDP Predictions
Browse GDP market predictions and forecasts from well-known financial commentators. Each prediction is tracked from the date it was published to its estimated deadline, then graded correct or wrong based on the outcome.
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[24:14] It'll probably decrease uh for two reasons. One, um, the peak impulse from ABBA is in 2026... my assumption is that we're probably peak paradigm C here in 2026. We'll still be running a nomally hot economy in 20207. Uh but ultimately uh it probably won't be, you know, this is probably as good as it gets from a growth rate perspective.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
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[13:13] when you see declines of this magnitude, you typically see GDP revised negative in time.
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[13:21] The GDP report that we've got coming out tomorrow morning, it's supposed to print at 1.3%. Wee. It's I mean, that's a rounding error. So, um, I'm I'm I'd be interested to see outside of AI. And that's one of the few things that he did mention was in in the same sense of trying to parse out the effect of shocks on core inflation. He did also mention you know how's the US economy doing absent this AI explosion of investment and um I mean the answer to that is terribly. It's awful without AI we we'd be printing negative numbers.
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[23:46] I think that the general period will be one because what what's going to be happening is that the aggregate supply curve is going to be moving inward. The demand curve is downward sloping, so you're going to what you're going to do is you're going to get higher prices and lower real growth.
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[27:31] My base case is the economy grows above potential in 26. and for the remainder of 2026.
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[9:17] there's a real probability that the time we finish up this year, we're going to be closer to 1.8 to 2% GDP growth versus 2.3 to 2.6, right?
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[9:06] I don't think a four or a five handle for the year, which is what I was saying previously, but I don't think a four or a five handle for the year is is likely at this point. I I I think probably you're looking at somewhere in the twos. Might you get a three handle? It's possible, but probably a two.
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[33:23] this year I think as you because of the fear of inflation the second half of the year I think we will see the growth rate uh coming down under pressure uh coming under pressure because despite the fact that today we had some very good retail sales numbers employment has continued to be very strong but typically when you have a shock that registers itself suddenly it does not happen gradually
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[31:01] We've been saying since last April it's at least 3%. And so consensus is about 50% too low on growth relative to our paradigm C theme.
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[2:46] Q3 we're looking at you know kind of coming back on getting supplies back online that's a transitional phase with some acceleration in Q4.
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[28:38] Uh zero to negative is my bias is the answer.
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The BEA's advance estimate released July 30, 2026 shows U.S. real GDP grew at an annualized rate of +1.5% in Q2 2026, clearly positive — not zero or negative as predicted. (https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/gdp-advance-estimate-2nd-quarter-2026)
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[4:01] but we do see an economic reaceleration with the fiscal expansion due to the one big beautiful bill and uh in lower rates as well.
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[17:47] my estimate is that 5% sustained real GDP growth is optimistic. Uh I I'd pick a lower um figure than that.
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[12:50] if we can spend 2026 in GDP growth over two maybe three.
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[15:24] we're higher than Wall Street on real GDP growth. You know we're at 3% for year-over-year for the upcoming quarter. That's another acceleration.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
The BEA's advance estimate released April 30, 2026 showed real GDP grew at an annualized rate of 2.0% in Q1 2026 (year-over-year rate of ~2.66%), well below the predicted 3% year-over-year figure. (https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/gdp-advance-estimate-1st-quarter-2026)