Ted Oakley Predictions

[2:50] if you look at gold at 4,600, it's still nine You know, it's still basically 900, almost a thousand dollars down from the high. So, uh if you want to look at it that way, it's still 18 or 20% off the high in January. And I think if they'll think about it long the You have to think about gold long term. If you'll think about it over the next uh say 1 and 1/2 or 2 years, you know, and let's say you got an objective of gold of 7 or 8,000, then it doesn't doesn't feel very high.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[9:17] Our theory is is that rates will be generally higher the next 10 years by pretty good margin over what they were the last 10 years. So, let's say that we think uh inflation will run between three and four over time. And there may be periods when it's two and a half. I understand that, but I'm saying over time, if it runs between three and four

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[9:17] rates will be generally higher the next 10 years by pretty good margin over what they were the last 10 years.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[27:39] all of the ingredients are sort of in place for a very high extended market in the US... whether it breaks in early '27 or you have to go another year or two, that's that's beyond me. Uh but but I will say this, once you get it there, that's when you have to take action in your portfolio

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[23:45] when we say in your portfolio that you need you need some commodity base cuz we feel like commodities will do better the next 10 years

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[15:58] we think, you know, two or three years out, you're looking at 6 or 7,000.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[27:32] silver probably I think it's still a good buy too. It will it will chase that gold price upward. So you can still buy it.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[40:34] I think they're all under I think they're all under price by the way.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[5:40] we look at the earnings quality the quality of the earnings over the next two years and if we don't feel like that's going to hold up uh then we take profits in something like that.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[21:21] inflation won't be super high, but it'll be one or two points over the interest rate level. And what that will do is just over time, it's a long-term thing. Over time, that will eat away at it.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[26:13] I think that continues. I don't think I don't I think they look at the US like you know what there's a lot of things we don't like about this situation... So, I think that's why they're buying the gold. And to me, that they probably will continue to buy it.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[8:37] I could see five and a half really sort of pushing them over the sort of over the limit.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[14:07] I suspect that it would go higher uh a little higher. Not a lot maybe, but even to higher maybe even the next quarter or two, but again, that's just a guess. But I could see it next year um all of that stuff breaking down maybe and and and you going back to lower levels. But I just don't think that's going to happen in the next 6 months.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[19:00] if you look at the numbers the history of that when that ratio is over 35 you don't make any money in the next 5 years. So we'll see if it plays out this time but I I I would I'd certainly take a look at and keep it in mind.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[20:13] over the last 6 weeks we replenished all of that cuz we think they all of that stuff will do well going into the end of the year.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[37:08] I think you can still buy it 4,300. I I think gold is is going to do well in the last half of the year

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[38:25] these really big name semiconductors. I mean, I I I think people that don't use this as a time to sell those are going to pay the price. And that's a group that's feast or famine. I've been around them for 40 years and they've all the way back to Texas Instruments and they it's feast or famine. I mean, you're going to blow them up, but they're going to come right back, give it all back one of these days.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[39:30] I do think you need a commodity. You need a portion of your portfolio in commodities. I think you're making a mistake if you don't because we feel like uh the next 10 years you're going to be in more of a commodity cycle, hard asset.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[15:50] I just I can't imagine anybody the next 5 years even if you had a 6 month or 8month window where you got a good trade out of it. I don't think anybody should be looking at 30-year paper.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[5:08] I think somewhere in here in the next 6 or 9 months, 12 months, you're going to probably get some sort of high that sticks for quite a while. And uh I I think people are probably not ready for that.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[13:56] I would be surprised if next month the rate of inflation go even goes a little lower because you know a driving factor on that was oil and oil in June it was really cheaper in in early July early cheaper than it was say a month or two months before that. So I I wouldn't be surprised if if when you come out with the next one that it in July that it's not lower too a little bit.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[16:39] I would be more than surprised again over the next year and a half or so if you don't see oil, you know, back up over a hundred bucks again. Um, I just I think we're set up for that. And I think there's been more damage to production than people probably realize there is.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[22:52] you probably close to washing all of those people out, you know, and and getting rid of that momentum. And if you are, then that sets you up for a nice move in in gold and the miners and silver too up up into next year sometime. So I I I think they're in a good spot here.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[21:06] you look at uh Agneo Eagle which we is our number one holding. I mean it's corrected 35 or 40%. It's a great buy here. Uh if you if these companies you if you look at their price to cash flow free cash flow yields on them it's really high. Um, and I I think what people are missing there is that where they are with the spread and where gold price is relative to what it costs them to get it out of the ground, it's such a big spread that they'll make a lot of money the next two or three years.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[18:56] for Kimble for example, that's another you know 9 and a half 10% dividend. um with some upside. You know, that stock could it it really it could go up 20 to 30 to 40% just based on pricing and what they're going to make.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[34:22] the positive side is that u I do think there'll be a fairly severe market in the next year or two on the downside.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[3:49] That's not to say I wouldn't be surprised if we don't make a new new highs in the S&P before this year's out, but it I would tell you it has all the makings of of late stage.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[1:23] I wouldn't be surprised if we don't get another swoon into the summertime.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[21:47] that tells us that gold will probably have a number of more years to go and a good bit higher before it's all over with.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[11:16] We also think that the next 10 years is going to be more of a commoditybased market.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[39:53] private credit is a blowup risk at 11.75% rates

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[30:50] It wouldn't surprise me to make one another new high before you finish this thing up in the S&P. Maybe go up over 8,000 or something.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[5:36] these second years of these presidential terms tend to be low return years a lot of times. But the key point to them is they swoon in the middle of the year. That's when you you get declines into the summer, you know, June, July, sometimes early August, and then you then going toward election, you always get this feverish uptick.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[11:51] I went back and looked at the top 10 IPOs in the last 20 years. And believe it or not, 70% of them were lower a year later.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[24:15] over the next five to 10 years, all sorts of things are going to happen to them. They're going to get sick. They're going to get depressed... they'll go into a mode of where they'll be like, you know what? we got to cut this back... I know the numbers over the next 10 years are not with that group.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[8:21] I can't imagine that May is not going to come in a good bit higher. I'm talking about maybe four and a quarter or higher and then and then you probably go to four and a half or maybe four and three/4ers by the time you get to the fall.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[7:54] I think the next few few months inflation will go higher, at least the way we see it. So, there's the bonds will probably be under more pressure in our opinion.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[10:31] Oh, I can't see how they cut rates at all. I mean, they would really they would look they would be looked on poorly if they did that.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[12:41] we really feel like that when people finally pick up on it, it will be like gold and silver were last year. You know, how they, you know, see how they picked up the last four or five months of the year. We think they'll do be similar in energy because they don't own it.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[13:44] the semiconductors, you know, they're like, you know, that's that's probably the high you'll see for five years in that group. They're way overpriced.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[21:54] That doesn't mean we don't like it long term. I think if you if you really want to own it for the next two or three years, you'll make plenty of money.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[24:14] Doesn't look like it... maybe that's 27 or late 26. Uh, I don't know. I think we'll sort of know when we get there. But uh until that time, I think the speculative nature just pushes pushes pushes

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[9:08] I wouldn't be surprised if we're not into another minor down again and then go up again. We're just in that that's what you get a lot of times in these second years of presidential terms.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[17:40] once they realize that in the next three or six months, I think you get another leg up on oil because they'll finally figure out that hey, and maybe the straits never go back like they were.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[22:58] I think you have to get enough selling now to get rid of those momentum people. And that's probably going to mean another 500, maybe as much as $500 down from here. You know, 4,000 or lower.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[27:27] All the miners are are getting cheaper. Now, don't get me wrong... they're getting selling right now... even though they're probably going to come down a little more.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[30:46] Residential I think will be I think it'll be under the water for a long long time because of your demographics. You have this baby boomers that own all the big houses or all the houses and they have this idea in their mind about the house is worth. So they're stuck on it and they and they'll take it off the market and put it back on but it doesn't sell. And we're probably in that situation for a long time now.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[25:52] You always have you every so often eight ten years you have a generational bare market. Well, we haven't had one. We've gone longer than normal since 2010 without one. But bare markets don't really crash particularly. They they just roll over real slowly for three or four or five months and then they pick up steam over time. That's why people can't they can't see it. They're just sort of drifting off. And then the last part of that bare market is when it gets really nasty. That's when you lose twothirds of the value.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[2:14] I would be surprised if over the next two quarters we don't have some more weakness back. It doesn't mean doesn't mean a bare market. It just means that wouldn't surprise me to go back where we were earlier.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[4:38] I think what you're going to get, David, is it's going to be higher for longer than people expect that it is. [...] we think that oil will continue to be a good something you should look at

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[20:39] we really think that inflation will go on up all through the rest of the year eventually go over 4% at the end of the year

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[9:20] yeah, I think it has more to go. I mean, it's like it hasn't ever gotten the level. Like, for example, uh when when the when the min gold miners hit such highs, we basically cut those in half uh right at the end of the year, beginning of January 2nd, 3rd, and 4th. And we did the same thing with silver. Same. We owned Heckla. We cut that in half on the silver miners because it it tripled in a year. And so, it was a thing to do. Well, all those have come back now, you know, and you have a lot of retail in those stocks. In energy, you don't have as much retail. They're not chasing those things. Uh, it's more of a steady climb where people are starting to realize that, hey, you know, we're we're going to need we're going to need this and it's going to no matter what, it's going to be a while before they get this thing resolved in terms of getting back to normal. Uh, it may never go back to normal for quite a while. So, I think you have to stay with energy in here for the time being.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[0:00] I think the next year and a half you're going to have new highs and recent new lows in the market both.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[18:32] Well, I I would be surprised if silver didn't come down to between 50 and $60.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[18:51] I'd be surprised if gold, you know, didn't come back to the low 4,000s

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[10:09] I think in 12 15 months from now which I think inflation will be back up again

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[16:53] I think in generally inflation is going to be sustainable though. between three and four.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[25:35] I don't think they'll get anywhere close to hitting the numbers there. They're looking at 16% the estimates out there for increased earnings in 26. I don't think there's a a chance they can make that.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[32:35] it could be significantly higher in the next three to five years but let's just say it's higher a hundred dollars a barrel maybe$1und whatever

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[11:20] I think eventually you you will have higher inflation. Maybe not here in the next two or three months just because of sort of the base effects you're looking at, but when you get into, you know, adding these tariffs on things that happen, you should you should get more inflation. I I would guess that you would.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[12:01] we think inflation over the next decade will yield somewhere between three and a half and five.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[21:03] we feel like that that's the next that's the next move you'll get from oil over the next 12 months it'll perk up.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[23:52] I don't think they're finished. Now, that's not to say, though, and I think people should be aware of this, that if you had a 3500 gold price and gold corrects to 2,900, let's say, you know, that's fairly normal after you get a really big move in gold. And and what you don't want to do in these sorts of things, if you believe in it over the next 5 years, which we do, you don't want to get shaken out on that down tick

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[22:26] I think you'll have one more turn in here where the where that 10year will go below four or somewhere in there

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[24:13] I think between now in mid year that that's when you would get this breakdown in in in the yield probably because the economy the market whatever maybe all of it together but later on I'm talking about in the latter part of this year and then end of next year your Inflation Rate goes back up again

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[24:31] we felt all along it's going to average for the next decade it's probably going to average three and a half or 4% on average that means sometimes you'll have it at five or six

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[30:37] I think in the long run I think uh you know you're going to get that and then also if you get inflation you'll get a lower dollar too I think I think I think those things will press against us here

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.