Larry McDonald Predictions

[0:03] The Ford earnings on Nvidia are complete baloney... Because because they're concentrated with a handful of companies, you know, think of like the forward earnings of Microsoft. that those earnings um or Google, they have like millions of counterparties that give them that revenue. The the counterparties to to Nvidia are like a handful of companies that are dependent on that.

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[26:06] I mean, it's going the opposite. It's it's not doing that. If anything, tech is eating more and more of the S&P 500... we're going to have over the next 5 years, 7 10 years, we're going to have this big transition where the S&P 500's composition goes from 50% tech to maybe 30% tech. And hard asset companies like the BHPs, like the Rio Tintos, like the Alcoas, like the the Agniko Eagles, they become a bigger part of these.

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[28:50] Oh, oil right here is a screaming buy. I think the your downside is maybe 70, your upside's 150. Um... that gets you like a big bounce in oil in the third, second, third quarter of this year.

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[9:25] the probability that we have a pretty nasty inflation shock later in the year, the summer driving season with a World Cup... you've got the summer driving season. You've got a lot of key supply chain disruptions that all around the world and like it's just that sulfuric acid situation that are going to create this like inflation bounce through the year and that's going to move money probably from growth stocks over toward value stocks.

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[27:29] everyone right now is in the chips, right? The microns and the semis, which is a commodity which is going to absolutely crash and burn.

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[25:23] They're buying back 2 billion of stock. The stock's down 40%. And they're producing free cash flow of six to seven billion a year... To me, that's a beautiful riskreward situation.

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[27:37] Nobody's Look at Intuitive Surgical. It's down like 20%. Um, beautiful business, but guess what? It missed a few quarters. They missed a few quarter, but they have the data... what the smart money is doing is they're looking at what companies have great data.

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[30:35] Think of what they just did. They just handed a huge fat check to US natural gas and oil producers and Canadian natural gas and oil oil producers... Say you're a natural gas buyer in some part of the world. You were buying from the Middle East. Now you've been wounded... So now they want safe jurisdictional risk. That's where the termines come in. That's where the anteros in the United States AR the range resources... that to me is the best AI play out there and it's a play on the war.

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[36:09] the Fed setup for hard assets is so bullish because essentially what they're doing is... they're forcing the banks to buy more treasuries and it's about a trillion bucks potentially over like 18 months to 3 years that suppresses interest rates relative to where they where they should be with inflation. That's bullish and that's really bullish uh hard assets

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[17:53] Copper stocks, any stocks like aluminum or Alcoa. We've lightened it a little bit. We've had it for 3 years, but aluminum is going to be a bedrock of the data centers... get out of these tech stocks and you should own the First Quantums should own the BHPs, the Rio Tintos.

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[7:36] natural gas in the next five years you're going to have a real great bull market.

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[33:08] the dollar just in this. You're going to have counter trend rallies, but you're just in a massive secular decline.

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[19:38] Yeah, I think the market overall is going lower, but there are places in the market that are that are outperforming dramatically.

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[10:40] this year a real bounce and and a slowdown. So that's real stagflation

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[14:40] then all of a sudden recession risk rises sharply this year and the Fed's going to have to cut.

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[10:23] the ability for oil to globally to come down is going to be very sticky because of all of the damage that Iran has caused across the entire ecosystem and the the and the and the supply chains of energy. So in other words really sticky inflation

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[16:18] industrials, materials, and energy, those those three groups in in the 1968 to81 period, they were like 50% of the S&P's composition. 50-0. In recent years, they got to like 10, maybe even a little bit lower, 9%. Only 9% of the S&P was in industrials, energy, and materials. And now that's maybe up toward 13. Are we going back to 50? No, but we're going back to like 2025

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[4:46] I think we can get a 20 to 30% draw down in the gold miners from the highs because of those diesel costs which are up 70% off the December lows

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[8:37] We're going to go from three K uh three cuts expected to zero and maybe even hikes coming in later in the year as inflation really bounces

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[23:02] Nvidia a year ago, a year, a year from today probably is down 50%. Because everyone's in the same crowded, stupid trade

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[28:50] by 1981 49% of the S&P 500's composition was in materials industrials and energy 49%. We're right now maybe 14. We're nowhere near I Are we going back to 49? No. But are we going at 25 30? Yes.

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[34:27] next 30 days, um, Trump's going to try to bring out the fire hose, but you still have a lot of problems in the Middle East around like normalization. So, getting long the VIX, the VIX getting long volatility

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