Chris Whalen Predictions

Institutional Risk Analyst

Track Chris Whalen's public market predictions and forecast accuracy. Each prediction is recorded from the date it was published to its estimated deadline, then graded correct or wrong based on the outcome.

5 forecasts 5 pending
  • Rankings only reflect predictions tracked on this site and do not represent a predictor's full record.
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5 forecasts
Person Subject Forecast* Source Date Deadline** Outcome
Chris Whalen Inflation Rate Double-digit inflation will occur in 2026
See quote
[10:01] we're still going to see much higher inflation this year. Julia, I haven't changed that prognosis. Double digits still. Yeah, I think so because we're going to see shortages in some really important commodities, things like fertilizer for the farm for example, and that cost is going to get passed through consumers.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The Julia La Roche Show 2026-05-30 2026-12-31 pending
Chris Whalen Fed Balance Sheet The Fed will increase Treasury securities purchases (QE5), swapping mortgage securities for Treasuries under Kevin Warsh
See quote
[13:49] I think the Fed is inevitably going to have to pick up the pace of purchases of Treasury securities. They're going to let their mortgage book run off. And I still think there's a good chance that Kevin Worsh is going to swap the mortgage securities that he owns with the Treasury to get Treasury securities

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The Julia La Roche Show 2026-05-30 2027-05-30 pending
Chris Whalen Fed Funds Rate The Fed will take no action on rates at the June FOMC meeting but will remove forward guidance language hinting at future cuts
See quote
[29:54] I doubt the committee is going to take action as a new chairman is being seated. So I wouldn't expect them to do anything in June. Although I do believe they will remove the language from the statement that alludes to a cut in the future.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The Julia La Roche Show 2026-05-30 2026-06-30 pending
Chris Whalen Fed Funds Rate A majority of the FOMC will favor a rate hike at the July meeting
See quote
[31:20] I wouldn't be surprised to see a majority of the committee in favor of a rate hike in July.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The Julia La Roche Show 2026-05-30 2026-07-31 pending
Chris Whalen Mortgage Lenders Three to four major M&A deals among top-10 housing/mortgage lenders will be announced by end of 2026
See quote
[34:58] We could see three, four new M&A deals in housing announced between now and the end of the year. And I mean big deals. Top 10 lenders merging.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The Julia La Roche Show 2026-05-30 2026-12-31 pending