Gary Wagner Predictions
Editor of the gold forecast.com
Track Gary Wagner's public market predictions and forecast accuracy. Each prediction is recorded from the date it was published to its estimated deadline, then graded correct or wrong based on the outcome.
- Rankings only reflect predictions tracked on this site and do not represent a predictor's full record.
- Grading involves judgment and may not always be clear-cut.
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[14:37] I truly believe that we will see gold at some point before the end of the year challenge $6,000 per ounce.
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[8:16] And to me, it's not if it will go to 7,000 is when. Might be a couple of years, might be five years. I don't think we'll see it this year.
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[9:31] But I truly believe that we will conclude I would say over the next four months above 5600. It could be 6 months. It could be shorter.
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[11:35] I think both of them will achieve that.
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[26:25] we are expecting a interest rate hike and to have that hike at the next Fed meeting.
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[3:02] The key though when we look at gold and I'll try to pick another chart okay where we look at gold it has moved from the end of October 2025 from 4,000 to 5600 $1600 move when it retraced the bottom of that retracement is where I mark my 100 or zero point on the fib level but the the secondary high that we had was a lower high and then we had a lower low. Typically in a market where you get a lower high and lower low is significant in that it could be really anticipating what we call um a level of support or resistance that's just been broken. And the one thing that I tend to do to confirm or deny that basic assumption is put up my moving averages. I'm going to do that right now. I've also added the MACD. And so what we can see is that when we look first of all at our stochastics, you can see how it dipped and is now below or went below 20. For those unfamiliar with this technique, all a stochastic oscillator is, and we use oscillators and momentum. The oscillator is basically plotting a line comparing the highest high over a certain period to the current high. And so when the stochastics come down like this, it becomes extremely overbought. This is what we saw back in March. You can see where it got very topheavy back in January and it broke above the 80 and here below the 60. So, we've seen a real significant move up on the stochastic. We have also seen that on the MACD, which is simply moving average convergence, divergence. We are not quite overbought yet, but we're getting in that territory. When you look at commodities versus stocks, a stock that has been trending higher uh for a year, even with dips along the way, will consistently be overbought because the price target keeps moving up. That level keeps moving up. We're seeing that in gold, whereas we're not rangebound on a longer term basis by any means. We hit an all-time record high. We did get a lower high, then we did get a lower low. What we really need to see and I believe there's a good chance of it on a technical basis is this current rally which began after that extreme low of 4100 breaks through 49 4900 because if we do that there's really no resistance till about 5100
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[8:18] The levels that I would like to see is if it does continue to move higher, obviously break above 80, but it's breaking above 90. That really shows the momentum is built because we'll get resistance at $96. That is simply based on this former top that came in on the second day of March. So 80 is a critical number, but to me the real critical number to actually take out is right above $89. That would signal the next level which comes in at 96.
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[26:01] Short term I'm looking at between 5,100 more likely 5200 to 5250 short term. I'm talking about before the end of this quarter.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
The prediction claimed gold would reach $5,200-$5,250 by end of Q1 2026, but the period high was only $5,586.2 on 2026-01-29, which exceeded the target range. However, the prediction specifically stated '$5,200 to $5,250' as the target, and while the price did reach $5,586.2 (exceeding $5,250), the exact claim was for the $5,200-$5,250 range, which was achieved during the period, making this correct.
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[26:51] Long-term, my target at the end of the year, drum roll, is at minimum $6,000 per ounce at minimum.
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[28:16] Short-term. Again, my short-term target is about $115.
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The prediction claimed silver would reach $115 per ounce in the short term by March 31, 2026. The period high was $121.3 on January 29, 2026, which exceeds the $115 target, confirming the prediction was correct even though the price declined significantly by the target date.
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[29:54] In terms of my endofear target, the way we've seen it explode, I'm looking for 160 to 180 by the end of 2026.
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[3:46] I do think personally we will get a December rate cut.
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The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points on December 10, 2025, lowering the federal funds rate target range to 3.50%–3.75%, confirming the prediction was correct. (https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20251210a.htm)
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[25:53] I think the more the more likely scenario in silver is a continuation of the recent bullish trend moving higher taking out the former all-time record high of 5445
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The prediction claimed silver would 'take out the former all-time record high of $54.45' (referencing the ATH of $53.34 based on the provided data), and the period high reached $79.7 on 2025-12-29, which significantly exceeded this target, making the prediction correct.
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[7:27] acceptable correction would easily be about a 23.6% retracement and that would take gold to around 3890
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The prediction claimed a 23.6% retracement from $3975.9 to around $3890, but the period low of $3913.7 represents only a 1.6% decline from the prediction date price, falling significantly short of the claimed 23.6% correction magnitude.
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[34:15] I would be hardressed to see an effective close above 50 for a sustained number of weeks
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The prediction claimed silver would not sustain an effective close above $50 for a sustained number of weeks, but silver closed above $50 on the target date at $70.13 and spent the final weeks of the period well above $50 (period high of $79.7 on 2025-12-29), directly contradicting the bearish claim.
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[25:37] I think that will happen actually fairly if it does occur. I believe it could occur over the next uh two to three weeks. But to go to the levels I have spoken about that I am not looking at as uh something even towards the end of the year maybe first quarter of 2026 to hit the target of 37 to 3,800.
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The prediction claimed gold would reach $3,700 to $3,800 by Q1 2026, but the period high during this timeframe reached $5,586.2 on 2026-01-29, significantly exceeding the predicted target range of $3,700-$3,800, making this prediction correct as the price surpassed the claimed levels.
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[25:41] I believe it could occur over the next uh two to three weeks.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
The prediction claimed gold would 'break above current resistance levels' within two to three weeks; the period high of $3698.6 on trading day 13 represents an 8.6% gain from the prediction date price of $3404.6, confirming that resistance was broken upward during the specified timeframe.
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[34:55] I don't think the story is over. What's the next level you're looking for for silver? Uh on the upside is uh almost 42. uh this is basis of futures contract between 41 and $42
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The prediction claimed silver would reach $41-$42, and the period high during the target window reached $121.3, far exceeding the $41-$42 target range, making the prediction correct.
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[1:15] I believe that as things are set up now, I don't see an out a way out of not having a recession. All of these steps are taking us to that point.
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[8:37] So my sense is that at some point I believe that it will hopefully occur this week you will see gold begin to disconnect from the selling pressure that we're seeing in equities.
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[22:31] My census gold will trade to 3500. It's the when that I'm a little bit more conservative conservative than other analysts. Right now I'm I'm looking at the top potential top of gold. This of course are calculations done before the fall but they're still relevant. anywhere between 3,350 and 3,400 an ounce. 3,500 an ounce. If I had to calculate, I would have looked for a second quarter next year.
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