Richard Smith Predictions
Executive Chairman of the Foundation for the Study of Cycles
Track Richard Smith's public market predictions and forecast accuracy. Each prediction is recorded from the date it was published to its estimated deadline, then graded correct or wrong based on the outcome.
- Rankings only reflect predictions tracked on this site and do not represent a predictor's full record.
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[7:27] I think that Bitcoin is uh not done going down, I'm afraid. And typically these corrections of Bitcoin are in the 75 to 80% range. So if you just take 125 and you go down uh you know 3/4 of that, what does that put you? Somewhere around uh 30 35. So I absolutely expect Bitcoin to be below 50.
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[22:31] I don't think gold is, you know, going to make new highs and I think it will probably be sideways to down over the next year or so.
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[21:10] I think the US dollar is going higher. Uh so especially if you are um comparing gold to the US dollar, right? There are other economies that look at gold in terms of their currencies, but in terms of the US dollar, I think this bet is flatout wrong. And I would be uh intrigued by the opportunity to take the other side of that.
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[22:22] as we head into these more challenging times that gold is going to be preferred, continue to be preferred over Bitcoin.
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[23:48] I think that you know we'll probably be sideways to down for a little bit here but I think by the end of the year in 2027 you know we'll see new highs in equities.
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[0:00] we're going to likely see a major correction until at least the second half of 2027, if not 2028.
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[4:01] I think that we're going to continue to see inflation be sticky, if not a problem, as real world assets get repriced
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[5:17] we have bottomed in that cycle and we're expecting interest rates to go up over the next 5 10 15 years.
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[0:12] I am expecting a near-term rally in the dollar but longer term I think the dollar has structural problems
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[14:54] The daily data are suggesting down in the near term as well into October, November.
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The prediction claimed the S&P 500 would decline in the near term into October and November, but the period low of $6521.92 represents only a 2.8% decline from the prediction date price of $6711.2, while the index ultimately closed 2.1% higher on the target date, showing the market did not sustain a meaningful downward move as predicted.
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[10:50] you know the Federal Reserve may try to lower rates more but they're going to be struggling with sticky to higher inflation. And interestingly also there's a 67month cycle in the unemployment rate and we're also into a rising unemployment trend according to that cycle uh as well that still has some room to run. So yes, we are seeing higher pressures on unemployment and we've been we anticipated those a while ago. So there is pressure for the Fed to lower rates based on higher unemployment, but it's happening in the face of persistent and sticky and probably even rising inflation over the next 12 to 18 months.
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[11:06] And interestingly also there's a 67month cycle in the unemployment rate and we're also into a rising unemployment trend according to that cycle uh as well that still has some room to run.
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[30:14] And we're seeing it at a topping phase of the cycle right now. And again down here we see this is a proprietary uh momentum indicator. It's called the cyclic RSI. And we can see that we have a series of descending uh tops in momentum while we have an ascending series of prices. So this is a classic momentum divergence situation and um and the cycle is uh just past its peak. So on a weekly basis, uh, I'd say that's of concern.
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