Jesse Felder Predictions
Founder, The Felder Report
Track Jesse Felder's public market predictions and forecast accuracy. Each prediction is recorded from the date it was published to its estimated deadline, then graded correct or wrong based on the outcome.
- Rankings only reflect predictions tracked on this site and do not represent a predictor's full record.
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[2:06] I think we're in a a uh a prolonged um topping process in the stock market. That's taken longer obviously than I thought it would take for it to play out. Um especially with this latest move in semiconductors, this this kind of final blowoff phase I think is what we're kind of in the midst of. I still do think this is all kind of in the midst of a major topping process.
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[15:16] it's going to be problematic uh you know over the next year 2 3 years significantly problematic for a lot of these companies at the the center of the the AI bubble.
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[22:04] the next decade for the hyperscalers is going to look so unlike the last decade as to be shocking... It's going to start with the semiconductor stocks and they're going to say, okay, look, the the the forward revenue and earnings estimates are going to come down because the spending is going to slow. But at the same time, we're going to start to hear more about how the profitability of these formerly great magnificent companies is really dramatically deteriorating as revenue growth continues to slow for them
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[32:07] the energy sector in particular um still looks very very attractive um to me from from that standpoint and it's one of the areas at 3% of the S&P 500 right now that I think if investors are looking to kind of hedge an AI collapse apps energy uh is is is probably a terrific place to do that... energy has been uh you know one of the best places to be invested over the last 5 years and probably will over the next five.
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[36:07] the fundamentals of the the energy um sector of the, you know, crude oil suggest crude oil should probably be trading $150 a barrel right now... it's pretty obvious that we we're going to see much you know in in the months ahead uh a further breakout in the oil price
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[37:29] The 10-year yield should go to could go to 6% over the next 6 to 12 months.
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[36:43] what is this dramatic rise in the gold price herald over the over the next 20 months following it is a is a rise in the broader commodity space the rise in the oil price a rise in interest rates and right now the the the rise that the gold price has had over the last two years is now just starting to be reflected in the broader commodity space, oil prices and interest rates.
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[39:11] We have 4% you know on CPI today PCE and core PCE coming in even you know stronger than those types of things. Uh you know Fed's going to be forced to raise interest rates
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[5:17] it really looks like we have a stagflationary scenario building. We had the small business NFIB survey come out this week and showed small businesses are raising prices and dramatically reducing plans to hire people. So you know that that is a good leading indicator of rising unemployment and rising prices which is the definition of stagflation. So we have these stagflationary dynamics
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[2:14] we are in an inflationary age, you know, the 2020s or an inflationary era that is going to persist for for quite some time.
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[7:35] I think we're going to start to see more and more talk of rate hikes to deal with this, you know, simply due to the understanding that it's it's much more than than an oil situation.
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[14:25] transitioning into, you know, these more kind of hard assets, real assets, whatever you want to call them, is uh is is probably a no-brainer at this point and a trend uh you know, uh that's going to last for for uh quite some time.
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[21:32] we're going to reach a point in time where the spending is going to have to slow and the depreciation charges are going to start to surge. And that's where you're going to see uh earnings for these big companies start to do kind of what free cash flow has been doing already, which is which is plummeting.
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[22:31] What happened in 2001 2002 was revenue growth slowed and all the expenses went through the roof and n the NASDAQ went down 90% plus. And so I think we are in a very very similar dynamic right now where the revenue growth is going to take a lot longer to materialize than the market believes
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[14:14] the broad stock market has never been more overvalued than it is today, driven by this AI boom, bubble, whatever you want to call it
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[12:08] I've been pounding the table for real assets for the last five, you know, 10 years really with the with the gold price. Um and that's just an argument that you know in an inflationary environment when the debt uh is doing what it's doing and the central bank has been ultra dovish for so long um you really want to own real assets in favor of financial assets.
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[17:19] the thought that the oil price is going to stay at record lows relative to M2, relative to gold, relative to anything else and basically stay undervalued persist dramatically undervalued persistently and definitely into the future is probably wishful thinking at best.
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[37:06] one of the best periods to own energy stocks and precious metals and things was that 2000 to 2010 time frame, which was a lost decade in the stock market. So, you know, these things go in cycles and uh you know, it's it's really hard to kind of maintain a long-term perspective sometimes when you see what the market's doing in the short term.
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