Adrian Day Predictions
President of Adrian Day Asset Management and Portfolio Manager
Track Adrian Day's public market predictions and forecast accuracy. Each prediction is recorded from the date it was published to its estimated deadline, then graded correct or wrong based on the outcome.
- Rankings only reflect predictions tracked on this site and do not represent a predictor's full record.
- Grading involves judgment and may not always be clear-cut.
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[23:54] when we get under 60 55 to 60 I I would think that would be pretty much a low and I would be looking to be pretty aggressive
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[32:50] if you've got a 5 to 10 year time horizon, you've studied the gold market and you think everything I think and know means that gold will be higher and the commodities generally will be higher in 5 years.
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[2:14] you look at price, you look at value, you look at sentiment, all of those things are just unbelievably lopsided right now, which as a contrarian uh it's difficult to imagine a better setup.
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[3:39] if you looked at gold backing just for the dollar, just for the dollar, we're not talking about the growth in global money supply, but just the growth in the money supply of the dollar for it to for us to have 100% backing, you would be looking at a $21,000 gold price. But you know for 25% back in you're looking at you know 56 5700. So where we are now we are very very under value.
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[5:36] doesn't mean silver won't be higher a year from now, but just a short-term top.
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[1:00] the valuations of the equities are at at very low levels much much closer to the low all-time lows and even to the averages... I would 100% absolutely look for opportunities right now if you're new or underinvested in the is I would absolutely invest now
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[11:30] stocks like Franco and Wheat and and Aigo um selling at on a historical basis uh very very low multiples right now... compared with Franco's historical price to an EV, it is now well under its average. well under its average in the lowest uh lowest 30 percentile on a price of cash flow it's in the lowest 20 percentile so yeah the valuations are very very good I would absolutely start buying now
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[10:02] price is down, valuation's down, sentiment weak. I mean, that is just the perfect setup for a strong move.
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[4:45] the in the CPI number could be weak uh for July and August
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[4:51] I think a lot of the pressure on the Fed to raise rates will perhaps be removed.
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[27:47] The AI stocks I think are just grossly overvalued. based on based on future earnings but may or may not come... we're going to get that scale back and that's going to affect the prices of um you know the companies that that that are you know building the data centers where it's a major part of their business. So I we've already started to see you look at Nvidia or um Microsoft or um Amazon all these companies their stock prices have come down 15 to 20% over the last month... I think we're going to continue to see that.
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[23:27] countries that found themselves suddenly squeezed for oil, not that the price went up, but that they couldn't get it. Um, mostly in Asia, those countries are going to be more willing. They're going to they're going to see building an oil reserve as a as a priority and an urgency... I think all of those countries are going to build up reserves of oil and that of course means more more demand and higher prices.
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[9:57] I think the oil price on a longerterm fundamental basis is going to go meaningfully higher over the next few years.
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[17:01] I don't think the Fed is going to raise rates. I I I especially with walsh um coming in the new Fed chairman um I think it would be I think it would be a huge surprise if his first move as Fed chairman was to raise rates. I what it does mean though is they're probably much less likely to lower rates in the near term.
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[27:37] we could have a deeper correction, but is this like a longer term fundamental end? I don't think so.
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[21:17] I think rates will will stay up, but I guess as with all things, there's there's 10 or 20 or 30 different factors affecting something
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[37:09] it seems as though we're due for rotation out of the big tech growth stocks in the US and into defensive stocks in the US, value stocks in the US, uh, global stocks, uh, value stocks internationally, emerging markets, you know, and so on.
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[24:48] I'm expecting this trend to continue not just because not just because of the cycles, although that's where I started the conversation, but if you look at where we are right now, the foreign markets relative to the US market is at a 50-year low.
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[25:33] we're going to see rotation out of the big US growth tech names, tech growth names, and into things that have lagged uh primarily for foreign markets, but also for value stocks, for smaller stocks, and and and so on.
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[29:23] commodity stocks, as you know, are very very close to 100year lows relative to the US equity market. Again, extreme levels of relative underperformance.
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[37:02] we're going to see a I'll say continuation of QE because they really started QE again back in December. the nonQEQ. Um um but I think we're going to see a continuation of that and perhaps you know that will get even more dramatic in terms of size if they feel they can't really lower interest rates
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[10:49] I think we're going to see a period a multi-year period of outperformance by foreign markets.
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[17:16] the crop yields, uh, you know, 6 months from now will be undoubtedly softer. I'll use the word soft, which is a nice a nice um a nice neutral word, but they'll be softer uh than maybe anticipated.
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[5:14] my base case would be 50, but I don't think 75 is off the table
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[0:18] I I truly find it difficult to envisage a scenario in the next 12 months where gold will be lower, and that makes me nervous
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[0:07] the gold stocks will do significantly better than bullion
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[25:51] I think the US stock market is is potentially reaching the point the tipping point where where it will where the leaders will roll over and we'll see a a correction in the S&P. Uh I'm not looking for a crash or collapse but we'll probably get rotation out of those leaders
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[17:54] I mean I think the dollar uh the dollar is going to continue to be weak
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[12:18] So I think a correction now is certainly in the cards. Uh is certainly you know uh a a strong possibil probability but I don't see I don't see it going back to where we started the year.
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The prediction claimed a dollar correction upward but not back to year-start levels ($109.39); the dollar did correct upward to a period high of $101.98 on 2025-05-12, which is above the prediction date price of $99.61, and this high ($101.98) remains below the year-start level ($109.39), so both conditions of the prediction were met.
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[12:33] I think in the near term the stock market is going to be strong.
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The prediction claimed the stock market would be 'strong in the near term' with a bullish sentiment, and the period high of $6532.65 represents a 16.0% gain from the prediction date price of $5631.28, exceeding the directional claim and demonstrating market strength during the 4-month window.
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[30:20] The question is when do they start QE? When do they start buying bonds? Um and I think that's coming soon.
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The Fed ended quantitative tightening (QT) on December 1, 2025, but did NOT restart QE (active bond buying). As Babypips noted, 'ending QT is not the same as restarting full-scale quantitative easing' and 'the Fed has not launched a new bond-buying spree.' The prediction specifically claimed the Fed would start 'buying bonds,' which did not occur within the target period. (https://www.babypips.com/news/explainer-2025-12-03-fed-ends-qt-why-it-matters)