Adrian Day Predictions
President of Adrian Day Asset Management and Portfolio Manager
Track Adrian Day's public market predictions and forecast accuracy. Each prediction is recorded from the date it was published to its estimated deadline, then graded correct or wrong based on the outcome.
- Rankings only reflect predictions tracked on this site and do not represent a predictor's full record.
- Grading involves judgment and may not always be clear-cut.
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[2:51] I don't think we will see but I don't think we'll see the oil price stay down for very long.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
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[24:48] I'm expecting this trend to continue not just because not just because of the cycles, although that's where I started the conversation, but if you look at where we are right now, the foreign markets relative to the US market is at a 50-year low.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
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[25:33] we're going to see rotation out of the big US growth tech names, tech growth names, and into things that have lagged uh primarily for foreign markets, but also for value stocks, for smaller stocks, and and and so on.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
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[29:23] commodity stocks, as you know, are very very close to 100year lows relative to the US equity market. Again, extreme levels of relative underperformance.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
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[37:02] we're going to see a I'll say continuation of QE because they really started QE again back in December. the nonQEQ. Um um but I think we're going to see a continuation of that and perhaps you know that will get even more dramatic in terms of size if they feel they can't really lower interest rates
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
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[10:49] I think we're going to see a period a multi-year period of outperformance by foreign markets.
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[17:16] the crop yields, uh, you know, 6 months from now will be undoubtedly softer. I'll use the word soft, which is a nice a nice um a nice neutral word, but they'll be softer uh than maybe anticipated.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
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[5:14] my base case would be 50, but I don't think 75 is off the table
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[0:18] I I truly find it difficult to envisage a scenario in the next 12 months where gold will be lower, and that makes me nervous
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[0:07] the gold stocks will do significantly better than bullion
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[25:51] I think the US stock market is is potentially reaching the point the tipping point where where it will where the leaders will roll over and we'll see a a correction in the S&P. Uh I'm not looking for a crash or collapse but we'll probably get rotation out of those leaders
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[17:54] I mean I think the dollar uh the dollar is going to continue to be weak
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[12:18] So I think a correction now is certainly in the cards. Uh is certainly you know uh a a strong possibil probability but I don't see I don't see it going back to where we started the year.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
The prediction claimed a dollar correction upward but not back to year-start levels ($109.39); the dollar did correct upward to a period high of $101.98 on 2025-05-12, which is above the prediction date price of $99.61, and this high ($101.98) remains below the year-start level ($109.39), so both conditions of the prediction were met.
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[12:33] I think in the near term the stock market is going to be strong.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
The prediction claimed the stock market would be 'strong in the near term' with a bullish sentiment, and the period high of $6532.65 represents a 16.0% gain from the prediction date price of $5631.28, exceeding the directional claim and demonstrating market strength during the 4-month window.
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[30:20] The question is when do they start QE? When do they start buying bonds? Um and I think that's coming soon.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
The Fed ended quantitative tightening (QT) on December 1, 2025, but did NOT restart QE (active bond buying). As Babypips noted, 'ending QT is not the same as restarting full-scale quantitative easing' and 'the Fed has not launched a new bond-buying spree.' The prediction specifically claimed the Fed would start 'buying bonds,' which did not occur within the target period. (https://www.babypips.com/news/explainer-2025-12-03-fed-ends-qt-why-it-matters)