Michael Every Predictions
Global Strategist at Rabobank
Track Michael Every's public market predictions and forecast accuracy. Each prediction is recorded from the date it was published to its estimated deadline, then graded correct or wrong based on the outcome.
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[28:04] my call on that front is that that war will come back after the midterms. It's a finely balanced thing. I can change that view if the evidence changes for the moment. I think there's at least a 50 versus other lower percentage outcomes. Therefore, my base >> Iran after the midterms. >> Iran after the midterms. Yeah, absolutely. I don't believe that's in any way done at all. This isn't sorted.
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[39:04] He dismisses markets pricing 45% chance of normalization before October 1 as too optimistic, noting ships run dark, ship-to-ship transfers hide traffic, and geopolitics will escalate after midterms—Hormuz will never fully normalize as countries build alternatives.
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[15:58] I would say it's pretty damn unlikely that they have agreed to do what one side are saying they have because the other side in Iran is saying they haven't agreed to it... That still strikes me as less than a 50% probability. So the greater than 50% is that that hasn't been agreed and therefore we haven't actually resolved this complex crisis yet.
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[28:06] Not going to happen, but very very important. Very important because they see them as a defensive shield, but also an offensive weapon uh against others in the region... I don't think there's any chance that Iran is going to say, 'Right, okay, we can give up Hezbollah and just say there you go.'
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[26:08] you are going to get a flood of ships getting out temporarily with a long queue, you know, like an LA freeway. You are going to get those ships coming out and there will be a further boost to global energy and key commodity supplies... there will be further downward pressure on energy prices in the near term therefore on bond yields etc etc.
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[26:54] do you really think we're going to kick off again to in 60 days from Friday, so mid August, given how much closer that would be to the midterm? And I would argue, look, probabilistically, no. But logically, you would then say, well, you know what, we can extend for another 60 days. It's not difficult the way things are at the moment to extend another 60 or another 90 days until you get to the other side of the midterms, at which point then everything can begin again.
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[31:24] He may ironically end up with regime change in Israel because you have an election day coming up, right? Uh sometime between September or October and there's very little way in which Netanyahu can wear that uh and write into an election and say I achieved some kind of victory rather than being basically put in shackles here... he doesn't have a coalition that he can assemble that will keep him in office. The opposition will win one way or another.
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[9:58] I don't think for a moment that the region is going to say great, we have a peace deal and believe it in in the way that it's going to be sold. Uh, I don't think that everyone will be saying all those plan B's that I've been expensively dusting off and preparing to get oil and energy and other goods out of the Middle East without going through Hormuz can all be put back in the drawer... No, the complete opposite is true. Everybody will be looking at building whatever infrastructure they can to make sure that regardless of what happens next.
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[6:17] as a result, the long end of the curve is, you know, seeing JGB yields move higher and higher and higher to react to the fact that the BOJ isn't doing anything
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