Steve Hanke Predictions
Professor of Applied Economics
Track Steve Hanke's public market predictions and forecast accuracy. Each prediction is recorded from the date it was published to its estimated deadline, then graded correct or wrong based on the outcome.
- Rankings only reflect predictions tracked on this site and do not represent a predictor's full record.
- Grading involves judgment and may not always be clear-cut.
- Submit corrections
See quote
[15:38] you you said, "Is inflation still worrying me?" And the answer to that is yes, it still is worrying me. And if you look at the consumer price index, it's 3.4% 4% year-over-year, but the sixmonth annualized rates 5.1%. So it it's the the underlying trend is one of acceleration in the CPI.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[42:16] I I think it's the the secular bull is intact and and it'll continue to go up and and my I haven't changed my mind. I think it's going to end up at the at the top of the market will be like $6,000 $7,000 an ounce.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[14:36] the money supply is accelerating. Its rate of growth is accelerating. And I do like to look at the broader measures like Devisia. The the latest Devisia just came out two days ago and it's M4 Devisia is growing at 7.4%. Uh a year ago was growing at 5.6% per year. So it's definitely accelerating
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[9:37] I I think given what we know now, I I think they'll continue to increase the Fed funds rate until the growth in the money supply slows down to 6% or something close to
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[40:25] You said maybe another 50 basis points into what you would call the red zone for the economy. Uh are you still sticking with that assessment or or outlook after what the Fed did yesterday? >> Yes.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[15:12] They're spending like drunken sailors down there. and the deficit will be go up. That's the only thing that's going to happen. The deficit will go up. They'll have to issue more Treasury debt and and people who buy it are going to demand a higher yield because there's a more risk associated with holding more and more government paper.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[4:33] I I think there could be another 50 basis point increase in the 10 10 year and 30 years. So that that puts us really into a red zone shall we say.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[23:00] you can bet your bottom dollar that they're going to be increasing the Fed funds rate the next meeting. He he already has three members of the Federal Open Market Committee, by the way, who who already the last meeting they voted to increase rates. So, three three are going to definitely vote that way. And and it looks looks to me like Walsh will probably join them
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
The FOMC voted unanimously (12-0) at its September 16, 2026 meeting to raise the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.75%–4.00%, confirming the prediction that the Fed would hike rates at this meeting. (https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/16/fed-rate-decision-september-2026.html)
See quote
[25:49] Yes. What happens to the economy once we hit 5%? By the way, I've heard a theory... 34% chance above 5%. Do these uh numbers more or less line up with the direction you're anticipating? Yes.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[41:38] Deli Rodriguez and and that socialist gang that's in power right now as well as the as Trump because Trump is basically running Venezuela. They they aren't going to be around for 25 years, baby. And and this thing will be overturned very quickly, probably. We might have to wait might have to wait a year or two before it's trashed
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[3:20] I anticipate that they're going to if they want to keep it stabilized, they'll have to intervene again. That's that's that's my guess. I don't I don't think it's got to I I think it's an unstable equilibrium right now, as they say in economics. and and and and the the shorts will keep pounding it and it will go down because the only way you can change the course of a currency is to change the fundamentals and they're not changing the fundamentals of anything.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[13:14] I I think that the the 30-year can at least go up 50 basis points from where it is now.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[13:34] And and it's also a headwind for precious metals which which incidentally look like go gold gold is has you know finished its consolidation and it's going up.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[13:50] the secular bull market in gold that we talked about many times on the program and I happened to be on on board with the secular bull story in gold and I indicated I think the first time I ever did it in public you twisted my arm so hard that I had to confess that I I thought it would peak I peak out at $6,000 an ounce which I'm still holding to
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[31:07] I I think the bond market is going to call call a tune. And and one thing we know, we we know the stock market's in a bubble... higher interest rates you usually are associated with bubbles popping.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[31:22] we we know the stock market's in a bubble. Any measure of bubbles, throw the thing up as a bubble. No matter what, no matter you you take your measurement, you take your gauge, they all say bubble... higher interest rates you usually are associated with bubbles popping.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[23:01] The the economy is still in the doldrums because the the money supply is growing at a at a rate that's lower than the inflation target of 2%... the money supply is just simply not growing fast enough to accommodate that 7% target. they they won't hit the target.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[14:57] I think the fundamentals point to more yen weakness that that's where the fundamentals come into the thing.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[18:37] the sequence is this money supply growth with a lag will affect inflation. And we know I said the inflation rate's 1.6%. the year-over-year inflation rate in Japan. So that that suggest yields follow the inflation rate and that suggests that what that the yields are going to come down not keep keep going up.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[44:55] they'll keep going up. You you don't want to be long you long long bonds, those interest rate those interest rates will go up and and that means what? If the interest rates go up, the price goes down.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[10:37] I've always anticipated that later this summer, and we're getting now towards August, that that we could very easily see a pretty good spike in the price.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
The prediction called for a 'significant spike' in oil prices by end of August/early fall 2026. The period high reached $106.75 on September 15, 2026, representing a 25.7% increase from the prediction date price of $84.91, which clearly constitutes a significant spike occurring within the predicted timeframe.
See quote
[26:09] maybe the one way to go long is is just go long the majors if the the majors are very very the prices are very low now. So So that might that might be the easiest way for the the average person who who's not in commodity markets
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
The prediction was bullish on major oil company stocks (XLE), and the period high reached $65.78 on 2026-09-10, representing a ~13.1% gain from the prediction date price of $58.15, confirming a meaningful rise during the window.
See quote
[28:08] The bull market I I from my point of view is still intact and will will peak out probably around $6,000 an ounce.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[31:59] I think we'll re the inflation genie will remain out of the bottle in the United States.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[42:00] deficit bullish?
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[42:29] Yes. Going up, deficit.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[37:48] as as we get a deglobalization going on that that that structural change will be very bullish for commodities because instead of trading freely in commodities, you you you'll basically need lots more inventory.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[2:05] it's pretty clear Iran will control it going forward.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[7:47] I think I mentioned on the show before, the last time we talked, that I thought we'd run into shortages by the end of the summer and early fall as the inventories did just completely dried up. And it looks like that's happening.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
Oil inventories drew down at historic rates through summer 2026 due to the Strait of Hormuz closure, with OECD inventories hitting their lowest levels since 1990 and the EIA projecting global inventory falls of 3.0 million b/d in Q3 2026, confirming the predicted shortages materialized. (https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/global_oil.php)
See quote
[36:06] So do you think the the yen will continue to depreciate against the dollar? >> Yes.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[36:25] It It that the strength will continue. >> Okay. >> At least At least in the short run, that's the The dollar's very very strong
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[33:46] inflation's going to come down because the money supply isn't growing. And inflation comes down, interest rates will come down. That's that's what's going to happen. In- inflation isn't going to go up. It's going to come down.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[34:03] And if inflation goes up, bond yields will come down. They won't go up. So, everybody's just got it all wrong.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[37:11] Oh, yeah. It's going to take longer to hit the target. That's of 6,000, but we we we will hit it. The headwinds are uh as you say, you that chart that you had up there about the Fed funds rate, that that's a key thing because if if interest rates go up, the opportunity cost of holding gold, that goes up.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[5:52] I my my base line case is probably around $85$90 a barrel. That wouldn't surprise me whatsoever.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[25:42] I I I would I would say that the chances of them lowering that, meaning gooseing in in their eyes is pretty low. Well, as you saw in the chart, I think it's non-existent.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[11:11] I I think they probably will be forced to tighten up and the reason for that is that the inflation genie is out of the bottle it's at 4.2% 2% now and I and and the target is 2%. That's over double a target. It's not even close to the target. So, it's very hard to argue against not squeezing and tightening things down with with when you have inflation running over double its target rate.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[43:06] It will be o open in quotes, but it it will be one way or another controlled by Iran going forward. That was not the case before.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[48:51] we're running a deficit in oil probably through the end of the year and and and you you have to run a surplus of course using the surplus to add to the inventory.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[6:49] you said aluminum may the next commodity squeezed by the Hormuz crisis. Well, uh be because you've got a lot of aluminum production in in in uh the uh in in the Gulf nations. So at at the margin it it makes a big difference.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[10:52] the inflation genie is out of the bottle in the United States and it's not going to be put back anytime soon. Th this will be with Trump and one of Trump's big Achilles heels throughout uh at least in the foreseeable future. So that means maybe throughout a big chunk of his second term, he he's going to have this inflation problem around his neck.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[19:01] no recession in the immediate outlook. All the data look okay. The money supply is being gooseed. Everything is being pumped up.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[19:29] especially after the the the USIsraeli attack on Iran and the closure or functional closure of the straight of Armuse that that is has caused actually in the last few months real weight just adjusted for inflation have have actually gone negative. They're not flat, they're actually negative, they decreased.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[25:22] I think there'll be revisions downward in the growth projections
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[25:55] I I don't think that's in the cards quite frankly because you you've you've got a a spoiler in the mix and that's Israel. Israel doesn't want does not want the thing to be resolved... So So that's why I'm quite skeptical that there'll be any uh reasonable resolution to the to the war that the US and Israel started.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[32:49] Y, yeah, yields are going up. Yields are going up anyway because the interest rate is a function of the inflation rate... And I think that I think they'll remain elevated. And that's why you've got the 10year at uh you know, almost 4 and a.5%.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[17:32] So, so, so we can we can see more of what we've been seeing recently, and that is uh elevated trade deficit numbers, which of course will aggravate Trump to to no end and and uh it probably motivate more threats about tariffs and trade policies from the Trump administration.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[0:19] I think the secular bull market is still in place and gold secular bull will probably peak out at $6,000 to $7,000 an ounce.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[30:50] I think we'll see inflation moving higher simply because the money supply has been accelerating. So, so we got two two different things going on. And the causality in inflation runs from changes in the money supply to changes in inflation.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[37:18] The 30-year is is almost up of it's just right under 5%. So when when that goes over 5% this is going to be big political problems. The the 30-year going over 5% which which I think it will do short shortly.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
The prediction claimed the 30-year Treasury yield would rise above 5%, and the period high reached 5.281% on 2026-07-31, clearly exceeding the 5% threshold during the prediction window.
See quote
[35:00] even though I think the stock market's in a bubble, usually bubbles only collapse when monetary policy tightens up. So, so what this means is that well, okay, we're in a bubble. Maybe the bubble isn't going to pop because the money the the monetary policy it's not tightening doesn't appear to be in the cards.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[39:31] I think the Chinese Juan is is undervalued right now by a considerable amount. Uh so that's that's that's that's a plus. If if you're in in China, you're going to you're going to see not a depreciating but an appreciating currency.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[31:37] we are entering a super cycle in commodities and commodity prices will be going up but that that that is not going to be the cause of the inflation going up. It's the money supply.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[19:09] So So what it means is lower oil prices at at some point. Not not right now, by the way. Not right now. Right. Right now, you want to be long because there'll be more spikes as the straight remains shut.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[24:02] you want to be long in the short and intermediate run because we we have had the the straight shut off but what's going on is pretty simple economics we've we've had a loss of about 14.5 million barrels a day that that don't that are not coming through, but the demand destruction due to the fact that the price has gone up is has not been that great. And the and the reason that the demand destruction isn't that great is that the price elasticity, the sensitivity of the demand, the quantity demanded of oil to prices is is is pretty sticky. It isn't very sensitive. Price goes up and demand goes down a little bit because of the price movement. You destroy a little demand but not very much. And as a result the you can see this by the way because the inventory drawd down is is about 11 to 12 million barrels a day. So in for in fact the demand destruction because of the price increase has only been about 2 and a half to three and a half million barrels a day. And and and to reach equilibrium they have to be about 14 12. It's it's only about two and a half to three and a half. So what's going to happen? We we're drawing down in price goes up that destroys a little demand and we live off declining inventories. We suck down inventory. Suck down in what happens when the inventories go up. The price jumps up. So we're going to see some price spikes coming. That's why you want to be long oil because because of the inventory draw down.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[30:06] By the by the end of the year, it's going to be higher than it is right now. it it it might not hit hit the six to $7,000 range because yeah that that would that would require the kind of fantastic increase we had in the past which I don't know if we'll see again but yeah we're going bank we're going up
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[23:03] I I I think lithium will make a another big run.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[23:06] And I another one I think is venadium.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[29:01] The money supply acceleration M2 will continue and they will not be able to contain and get the genie back in the bottle
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[32:11] by the way, a third of the world's fertilizer comes through the straight of Hormuz. Well, it hasn't been coming through. And fertilizer prices are through the over 50% increase in those. So, farmers aren't aren't buying fertilizer. We're going to have food problems. Food prices will go up.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[34:20] the inflation expectation on that chart by the way is coming down. I think that's a false signal that'll that'll start going up though. There'll be a convergence of those two things, David.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[40:42] I think the the US continues to deteriorate and I and I I think it will continue to it's been deteriorating for some time and I think it will continue to deteriorate.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[36:24] you've got about 80 refineries that have been damaged. A third of them have been damaged but severely. and and it t it's going to take about two years just to repair those facilities.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[10:29] They're not going to crush Iran. Point number one and Iran will in with a high probability continue to control the strait and and that means that functionally it'll it'll be closed.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[21:33] I think this could be the death nail for sanctions. I think the sanctions regime will start coming off.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[8:33] the stock market is in a bubble. It's in bubble territory and and it wasn't in bubble territory in 1978. The the PE ratio was eight. Now it's you know up in 29 28.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[27:39] We've already said that the price of gasoline has gone up about 50 cents on average in the United States in the last few weeks and and it will go up. It'll continue to go up because as you just said, we had a West Texas Intermediate crude hit a hit a 52- week high today.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
The prediction claimed WTI crude would continue to rise from its 52-week high, but the period high of $119.48 occurred on trading day 0 (March 9), and then prices fell sharply to a low of $76.73 on trading day 1 and ended at $91.30, a 3.7% decline from the prediction date price of $94.77, meaning prices did not continue upward from the 52-week high levels.
See quote
[45:53] the American public is very negative on this and I think the Republicans led by Trump will take a real beating in the in the midterm elections so there's a political the political fallout will be big
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[25:54] I don't think the Fed is going to be able to put that genie back in the bottle. meaning what what's that 2% or less? I don't think it's going to 2% or less.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[32:41] I think it's going up. I think I think it's going it's going it's going up. It's going to it's going to drift up.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[35:29] 92% no change. Okay. So that's that's where I am. I'm I'm with the market. I'm with the market.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
The Fed held rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% at the March 18, 2026 FOMC meeting, with an 11-1 vote to keep rates unchanged — exactly as predicted. (https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260318a.htm)
See quote
[32:43] I don't think this loosening will allow the Fed to get back the genie of inflation back in the bottle and get down to the target of 2%. I think that's the real problem and that's going to be a big problem for Trump
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[39:39] with all this pressure Trump is putting on them, the Fed has pivoted towards loosening. And that means that the stock market bubble will probably stay with us.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[38:43] that's good for hard commodities. So, keeps a secular bull market going in gold, silver, copper, platinum
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[9:55] So the the calls outnumber the puts by about a 2:1 margins and and that suggests that the consolidation around 4,000 it it's it's going up not not going down. It'll it'll hold at 4,000 and probably go up. The the options market is betting uh that it's going up from 4,000.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
The prediction claimed gold would 'hold at $4,000 and probably go up,' and the period high of $4,228.7 represents a 6.2% gain from the prediction date price of $3,979.9, confirming the bullish directional claim was correct.
See quote
[18:31] I think the this secular bull market and gold that we've been in, David, will maybe end up at $6,000 an ounce, not 5,000.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[37:50] Dollar is going to keep keep weakening and and get into my the the key the key dollar price is a dollar euro rate and and I think the fair value is 120 to 140 and and we're at about uh let's just look. look around 11718... So I think that the dollar will slip into the fair value range. It will it will go from 117 to weaken to 120 and and further into that range.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
The prediction claimed the Dollar would weaken and the EUR/USD rate would move from 117 to 120-140, but the DX-Y (Dollar Index) actually strengthened by 1% from 97.33 to 98.28 at the target date, with a period high of 100.4, meaning the dollar strengthened rather than weakened as predicted.
See quote
[3:59] We are still in a downward trajectory for inflation and the reason for that is that inflation is always an everywhere a monetary phenomenon. So you have to look at what was going on a couple years ago with the money supply to get some idea of what's going to be happening with inflation today or tomorrow. And since the money supply two two and a half years ago was actually contracting, it would indicate that we'd stay on this downward trajectory.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
Inflation rose from ~2.4% in early 2025 to 3.0% by September 2025 before falling to 2.7% by year-end, meaning it did not continue on a consistent downward trajectory as predicted — it moved higher mid-year before partially reversing. (https://www.bls.gov/cpi/)
See quote
[28:31] So in the next year we shouldn't be concerned about doubledigit inflation or high single not double digit inflation maybe high singledigit inflation coming back. You know people have painful memories of 2020 and 2021. So
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
US inflation peaked at 4.2% in May 2026 and fell to 3.5% in June 2026 — well below double-digit levels. The prediction that double-digit inflation would not occur was correct. (https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/14/consumer-price-index-inflation-report-june-2026.html)
See quote
[47:07] Now the real interest rate actually has gone up to about 1.7% or something like that. And I I think I think it probably will go up to, you know, like two and a half or 3% something in that zone.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
The 10-year TIPS real yield (the standard benchmark for real interest rates) remained well below the predicted 2.5%–3% range throughout 2025. A November 2025 TIPS auction priced at 1.843%, and by end-of-year the rate was still around 1.8–1.9%, far short of the 2.5%–3% target. (https://tipswatch.com/2025/11/20/10-year-tips-reopening-auction-gets-real-yield-of-1-843-to-lukewarm-demand/)
See quote
[17:20] I think the regime uncertainty will lead eventually to what? Looking ahead, it'll lead to a more serious slowdown and a recession in the United States. And with a recession, of course, you have topline revenues going down, margins going down, profits going down, and and you know, the stock market that the pees are going to come down.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
The prediction claimed the stock market would decline due to recession with falling revenues, margins, profits and P/E ratios, but the S&P 500 rose 14.7% from the prediction date ($5967.84) to the target date ($6845.50), with the period low only down 0.4% from the prediction price, failing to show the predicted decline.
See quote
[0:15] What we're seeing is the onset of a slowdown that will eventually lead to a recession late in the year.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
The US economy did not enter a recession in late 2025. BEA data shows Q2 GDP grew 3.8%, Q3 grew 4.4%, and Q4 grew 1.4% — all positive, with no NBER recession declaration. (https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/gdp-advance-estimate-4th-quarter-and-year-2025)
See quote
[16:44] I think it it might even hit the Fed's target at 2% or maybe even a little below this year
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
US CPI inflation never hit 2% or below in 2025. The annual average was 2.6%, and the December 2025 year-over-year reading was 2.7%. The lowest monthly reading in 2025 didn't reach the 2% target.
See quote
[29:43] Do you think that the worst is behind us for equities volatility? Oh, no. I I think things things are just warming up
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
The prediction claimed volatility would 'get worse' and 'things are just warming up,' but the market experienced a brief dip of only 5.6% from the prediction date before rallying 26.6% to close the period significantly higher, indicating volatility did not materialize as a dominant feature and the bearish outlook was contradicted by strong market performance.