Jonathan Wellum Predictions
founder and CEO of Rocklink Investment Partners
Track Jonathan Wellum's public market predictions and forecast accuracy. Each prediction is recorded from the date it was published to its estimated deadline, then graded correct or wrong based on the outcome.
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[6:30] I think that that the gold trade silver trade are going to come back into vogue again and it will do just quite well if you're patient you have to be patient
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[4:12] I think the commodity, we've underinvested in commodities basically and now we're demanding them like there's no tomorrow and we've got dependencies on nations that we don't want to have long-term relationships and dependencies with and all of that's feeding into I think good opportunities in the commodity space.
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[16:27] there will be fallout and there will be a lot of companies that disappear and go bankrupt too. So um that's just part of build out of the new technology.
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[14:54] when you're spending a trillion dollars a year plus plus plus and you're trying to generate a 15% return on equity which is what you want to be doing at least on that where's that 150 billion going to come from profitability. They don't know. Um and so what it is it's it's fear of missing out when it comes to the hyperscalers... it's fair to say it's impossible to believe that there's going to be these great high high rates of return.
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[9:08] that also could mean that the your growth rates and the revenue that people are expecting might not be as fast as people expect. Might take a little more a little longer to assimilate it and for companies to justify those expenses
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[11:46] if there's a lot of like smaller players and there'll be a lot of other players sort of trying to hold on to the and grab hold of this rocket ship. Uh there will be uh you know, companies that aren't they don't survive.
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[25:39] we own it for the long term prognosis but also that's very much a takeout candidate.
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[0:00] I think there's going to be a lot of volatility in the market. I don't think that you have to be a genius to see that. There's just a lot of stresses. Valuations are high, tensions are high... All of this stuff is hitting at one time and I think investors need to be preparing for volatility... it's going to be, I think, a wild ride.
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[29:19] the best performing sectors were energy, materials, uh consumer staples, utilities and healthcare after that draw down. You can see those have low correlations really to the AI spend. And so I would argue that some of the commodity businesses actually might hold up quite well even though there's volatility um and some of the basic consumer staples and utilities some of the more stable businesses that are more predictable uh would would would do quite well.
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[22:45] we're seeing the same five things. explosive capex spending, sky-high valuations, market concentration amongst players, speculative fever, FOMO investing, and then the fifth is uncertainty in terms of the earnings delivery and the potential overbuild... I think it will be a shock to the market if all of a sudden we realize this isn't developing the valuations of some of these high-flyers which is pretty concentrated would have their wings clipped fairly substantially.
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[1:29] Yeah, I think that um we're going to continue to see inflation running similar to what we've seen uh in the last little while 2-3%. I mean it's a little bit higher today and that's wasn't necessarily a surprise given the the jump in oil prices as a result of the uh the war in the Middle East
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[4:01] Interest rates are going to start to go up. And if we start printing money to pay for all of the interest costs and because we can't finance it, that again is just going to put more inflationary pressure.
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[7:02] And then also keep some of the commodities in the precious metals cycle because I think that again we're going to continue to see upward pressure on a number of key commodities and also on gold just because of the monetary instability.
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[9:22] Copper, you can't electrify and do all that we want without a lot more copper, but we have a shortage of copper. That's why it's over six bucks. It could easily go 8, 9, 10 dollars over the next couple of years.
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[15:16] It's almost inconceivable that there won't be a major pullback. Maybe that's not six Maybe that's six months from now. Maybe it's a year. Maybe it's a year and a half, but it will occur. Please be careful.
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[17:23] I do think that we are we've already seen a large uptick in commodity prices. So, we're I think we're well into a move that will continue. I say that for a couple of reasons. Number one, what we've been talking about, the amount of capital that's going into the AI spend and digitization, electrification, robotics.
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[25:44] If you're buying Berkshire Hathaway now, um I think it's much better than a money market fund. It's much better than a bond fund. Uh I would treat it like that. Buy it with uh a bond fund with at least you got so much cash, so much optionality and you got great businesses underneath it. And um and you buy it and uh and and just sit on it for the next couple of years and you'll do very, very very low amounts of risk.
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[24:07] And and interestingly enough um if you think of copper or even silver, those are almost in in my view over the next 5 years more predictable in the sense that they are you know they're not being produced at the level that we we need them. There's already a shortfall.
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[24:07] And and interestingly enough um if you think of copper or even silver, those are almost in in my view over the next 5 years more predictable in the sense that they are you know they're not being produced at the level that we we need them. There's already a shortfall.
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[25:05] Same thing with uranium.
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[9:25] it does appear to us, yeah, that we could be in for a bit of a retrenchment in the markets just based upon fundamentals
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[10:44] I think you know to see a global recession uh can all of a sudden becomes quite probable
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[9:31] you've got uh increasing energy costs that's going to cause uh increasing inflation
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[9:42] I've got interest rates actually going up quite a bit
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