Stephanie Pomboy Predictions

Macro Analyst, Founder of MacroMavens

Track Stephanie Pomboy's public market predictions and forecast accuracy. Each prediction is recorded from the date it was published to its estimated deadline, then graded correct or wrong based on the outcome.

14 forecasts 14 pending

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14 forecasts

Person Subject Forecast* Source Date Deadline** Outcome

Stephanie Pomboy Treasury Yields The higher-for-longer interest rate environment will persist, with Treasury yields continuing to face upward pressure due to AI capex crowding out and other structural forces.

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[0:00] the bottom line is the higher for longer interest rate environment I think is very much here to stay especially if you're bullish on AI and this whole capex boom because that's going to feed this crowding out phenomenon that's putting upward pressure on Treasury yields which happens to be the benchmark against which everybody has tied. So you're talking about you know higher for longer for everybody.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Thoughtful Money 2026-08-05 2027-08-05 pending

Stephanie Pomboy Commodities Commodities and hard assets will outperform financial assets on a secular basis as inflation and interest rates rise and paper asset supply surges.

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[35:57] Absolutely. Yeah. And and the other point I would make is the one we talked about at the top and that is you've got this massive supply of paper. We're just issuing stocks and bonds hand over fist whether it be the private sector or the government. Um and so having hard assets that just can't be manufactured out of thin air strikes me as uh you know an investment with a a very uh appealing attribute to it... that's the secular trend that you see uh ahead.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Thoughtful Money 2026-08-05 2028-08-05 pending

Stephanie Pomboy Recession The US federal deficit will surge to approximately $6 trillion during the next recession.

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[37:02] he's focused on the current two trillion deficit that we have right now and he says when we go into recession next that's going to be like a six trillion deficit, right?... I would totally agree long story short with Mike Pento's point that uh that deficit number in the next recession is going to be enormous.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Thoughtful Money 2026-08-05 2028-12-31 pending

Stephanie Pomboy Treasury Yields Treasury yields will continue to creep higher each year on a secular basis as deglobalization reverses the multi-decade downtrend in rates.

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[31:29] just as you know the fall of the Berlin wall and the onset of globalization thereafter pushed rates steadily lower from 1980 till basically just a few years ago. So will delization I think beget the reverse where rates will slowly just ever so you know each year move higher and higher

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Thoughtful Money 2026-08-05 2030-08-05 pending

Stephanie Pomboy Oil Oil prices will bottom around $65-$67 per barrel and then edge higher over the next several years

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[29:54] my sense is that we are just going to now from $70 a barrel, maybe we go to 67 or whatever, 65, but I think that from there, we're going to just edge higher. Um, and that's going to continue to be sort of the uh the trend for the next several years.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Thoughtful Money 2026-07-01 2029-06-30 pending

Stephanie Pomboy Energy Sector Energy sector (commodity and producers) will appreciate from current levels, representing a buying opportunity

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[33:50] I I'm still very bullish energy and I think this is a tremendous buying opportunity right here. Um, so I'm probably going to add to my exposure.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Thoughtful Money 2026-07-01 2027-06-30 pending

Stephanie Pomboy S&P 500 Equities will face headwinds as companies shift from net buybacks to net issuers, removing a key support for stock prices and EPS metrics

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[20:49] we're going to go from an environment where companies were buying back a trillion plus dollars a year in shares um to now being net issuers and uh net borrowers. So there's a tremendous demand for you know there'll be first a supply of equities rather than you know an expanding supply of equities rather than a shrinking supply of equities which has had the double whammy effect of both boosting um the prices but also the earnings per share metric

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Thoughtful Money 2026-07-01 2027-06-30 pending

Stephanie Pomboy Interest Rates Interest rates are on a path higher, not lower, over the long term due to deglobalization trends.

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[12:00] I'm not saying we're going to go to 10% bond yields over the next year. I'm just saying in general it the path for interest rates is higher not lower.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Sprott Money 2026-05-21 2028-05-21 pending

Stephanie Pomboy Inflation Rate Inflation will trend higher over the long term as deglobalization replaces the deflationary tailwind of globalization.

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[12:00] so should deglobalization be get the opposite. So we should expect to see... the path for interest rates is higher not lower. And the same with inflation.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Sprott Money 2026-05-21 2028-05-21 pending

Stephanie Pomboy Fed Balance Sheet The Federal Reserve will be forced to return to quantitative easing as the unavoidable policy response to treasury market stress.

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[15:03] The real TINA isn't stocks. The real TINA is QE in my view.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Sprott Money 2026-05-21 2027-05-21 pending

Stephanie Pomboy Gold Gold will move significantly higher as current selling by countries like Turkey establishes a base before a larger rally.

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[15:03] I know this is just setting a base from which it's gonna have to move up that much higher and I think um this is also true of oil

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Sprott Money 2026-05-21 2027-05-21 pending

Stephanie Pomboy Fed Funds Rate Fed Chair Warsh will not raise rates as his first action and will instead wait for oil-driven inflation to pass before cutting rates.

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[17:49] I have a very hard time imagining that Worsh would raise rates as his first um course of action. Um you know I think that they believe that this oil price situation is is going to be transitory... and that um once they wrap up this Iran thing, oil prices are going to come crashing downward... I I think that's probably what he'll do is he'll he'll expect that uh this is just short-lived and uh give it a minute and he'll have an opportunity to cut.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Sprott Money 2026-05-21 2026-12-31 pending

Stephanie Pomboy Inflation Rate Inflation will not subside enough to give the Fed a clear opportunity to cut rates, contrary to the prevailing expectation.

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[17:49] this idea that um you know the inflation will go away and that if Kevin Worsh just sits aside for a little while and gives it a minute, he'll have an opportunity to cut later is probably incorrect.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Sprott Money 2026-05-21 2026-12-31 pending

Stephanie Pomboy Treasury Yields Global bond market pressures will intensify, especially if the Fed attempts to shrink its balance sheet.

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[12:00] I expect we'll probably see more of those pressures, especially if wars actually endeavors to shrink the balance sheet.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Sprott Money 2026-05-21 2026-12-31 pending