Barry Knapp Predictions
Founder and Managing Partner, Ironsides Macroeconomics
Track Barry Knapp's public market predictions and forecast accuracy. Each prediction is recorded from the date it was published to its estimated deadline, then graded correct or wrong based on the outcome.
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[23:21] We're going to two and a half and that's where we're going to stabilize in my view for basically the reasons I described and that we're not going to have zero goods prices any longer.
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[22:53] by the time the Fed meets in September, they're likely to have very benign inflation readings. June was not the aberration. Uh June is probably what the numbers are going to look like. Not quite as negative on the headline, but the core numbers, all those measures I was talking about, rents, uh non-ousing services, those are basically all 0.1 point ones last month. That's likely to persist.
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[7:28] it's going to take about three to six months for them to um create the, you know, sort of academic political justification to do what I've just described, getting these outside experts to validate uh what Kevin Worsh believes, what I believe is the right thing to do, then they will be able to start implementing it. So, it's later this fall and as the inflation numbers come down, as I expect them to, they should be in a position to start this policy rebalancing
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[30:42] I've reduced my exposure to the technology sector. The index weight is 37%. I'm at 25. So remember I have institutional investors and individual investors that follow my work. Um that's a pretty big bet actually to be that much underweight.
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[29:01] my view on tech uh generally is not that the cycle is done, but that we've reached a point where the rate of change of capital spending growth is likely to slow. And my strongest evidence that that is likely to be the case is the performance of the four big spenders. So Google, Meta, Microsoft, and Amazon since they all reported curiously on the same day back April 29th and their stock prices just fell throughout the course of the quarter after raising capital spending.
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[33:04] Got a decent cash position because I think that rising real rates could cause, you know, a 10% draw down at any point. This is kind of the time you'd sort of expect it to happen. It happens in mid midterm years, most years. Uh, and when when those real interest rates rise, um, it it tightens financial conditions. It puts pre pressure on valuations, and I think we could have one of those August where a bunch of traders out in the Hamptons have to drive back to New York and deal with the problems.
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[35:38] the regional banks have done really well this year, but they still look pretty cheap to me. So, I don't think people fully appreciate how much this regulatory regime and steeping of the steepening of the yield curve will mean for their profitability. So, that's another one where I still think, yeah, okay, it's moved a bit, but there's a lot more um in the offing for these companies.
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[34:19] if you look at the staple sector, even though I've been underweighted and it's underperformed, the valuation of those staples companies are still really high. Mike, uh, Walmart's PE, for example, it's really an expensive stock for a company that I just, you know, margins are going to be under pressure. They're not growing rapidly. Growth in the staple sector, earnings growth is like five percent right now.
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[26:07] if the Republicans lose the House in November, which is sort of the betting markets expectation and polling, um, most likely we find ourselves in a 2018 scenario where the president has no choice in order to raise the debt ceiling, but to cut a deal with the Democrats. That probably means more spending.
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