Lacy Hunt Predictions

Economist, Hoisington Investment Management

Track Lacy Hunt's public market predictions and forecast accuracy. Each prediction is recorded from the date it was published to its estimated deadline, then graded correct or wrong based on the outcome.

4 forecasts 4 pending
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4 forecasts
Person Subject Forecast* Source Date Deadline** Outcome
Lacy Hunt Inflation Rate Inflation will gradually move upward from its prior 1.5–2.5% range into a 3.5–4.5% range over the coming years.
See quote
[31:49] the inflation rate which for a long time was between 1 and 1/2 to 2 and 1/2 is now gradually moving upward. And we're going to see it move up over time into a 3 and 1/2 to 4 and 1/2% range.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Thoughtful Money 2026-07-28 2031-07-28 pending
Lacy Hunt Interest Rates Long-term Treasury yields will trend higher over the foreseeable future as all three components of the Fisher equation (real rates, inflation expectations, and risk premium) rise.
See quote
[36:54] all three components of the Fisher equation point to higher rates. Now I not going to be steady, the environment is going to be very volatile. This is not going to be a subdued a subdued period like what we experienced from 1990 to 2020. It's going to be more volatile.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Thoughtful Money 2026-07-28 2031-07-28 pending
Lacy Hunt GDP The economy will experience a stagflationary environment of higher prices and lower real GDP growth for the foreseeable future.
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[23:46] I think that the general period will be one because what what's going to be happening is that the aggregate supply curve is going to be moving inward. The demand curve is downward sloping, so you're going to what you're going to do is you're going to get higher prices and lower real growth.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Thoughtful Money 2026-07-28 2031-07-28 pending
Lacy Hunt Recession Recessions will occur more frequently and be harder to avoid in the post-globalization era compared to the 1990–2020 period.
See quote
[29:27] you could have recessions from time to time. And and it's going to be more difficult to to avoid them, I believe, than during the favorable in the during the period of globalization.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Thoughtful Money 2026-07-28 2031-07-28 pending