Jason Hartman Predictions

CEO of Empowered Investor and Real Estate Tools, Economist and Market Forecaster

Track Jason Hartman's public market predictions and forecast accuracy. Each prediction is recorded from the date it was published to its estimated deadline, then graded correct or wrong based on the outcome.

5 forecasts 5 pending
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5 forecasts
Person Subject Forecast* Source Date Deadline** Outcome
Jason Hartman US Housing Market A housing price crash (decline of 20-25%) will not happen in the near term due to insufficient distressed sellers
See quote
[18:59] there is one ingredient you absolutely positively must have to have a housing crash and we should define crash. Okay, so that means prices declining by 20 maybe 25%. That would definitely be considered a crash to me... If you want to have a crash, you must have tens of millions... of home owners who become suddenly millions of distressed home sellers. There is just not enough distress to matter.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Thoughtful Money 2026-09-03 2027-09-03 pending
Jason Hartman Mortgage Rates Mortgage rates will fall to the mid-5% range
See quote
[32:31] I ultimately think uh we are going to see lower rates hopefully for mortgages in the mid5s. Um, you know, Trump would certainly like to see that.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Thoughtful Money 2026-09-03 2027-09-03 pending
Jason Hartman Mortgage Rates Rate relief (lower mortgage rates) will be delayed by approximately one year due to the Iran war
See quote
[32:19] I thought we would get some rate relief this year, but the Iran war probably pause that for another year.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Thoughtful Money 2026-09-03 2027-09-03 pending
Jason Hartman US Housing Market If mortgage rates fall to around 5.5%, bidding wars in the housing market will return
See quote
[35:19] if these people enter the market when you've got what give or take 8 900,000 homes for sale you can have bidding wars again it it's you know it's going to happen uh but we'll see

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Thoughtful Money 2026-09-03 2027-09-03 pending
Jason Hartman US Housing Market The housing market will face serious problems and become bearish in the mid-2040s due to demographic trends
See quote
[23:01] I will become very bearish on the housing market in the mid 2040s. Okay? That's when I get really bearish because we're going to have a problem there.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Thoughtful Money 2026-09-03 2045-12-31 pending