Interest Rates Predictions
Browse Interest Rates market predictions and forecasts from well-known financial commentators. Each prediction is tracked from the date it was published to its estimated deadline, then graded correct or wrong based on the outcome.
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[32:41] I think rates are headed up now in another big cycle. it's going to take them back to and above the levels we saw back in the 80s.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
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[9:26] Well then interest rates are still going to remain high.
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[12:58] I think that there is a a very important macro trade, if you will, that is emerging here, that could be quite significant, which is basically betting that rates are going to go substantially lower.
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[9:42] I've got interest rates actually going up quite a bit
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[7:25] We got to lower rates. There's no way around it. And you know the economy requires that rates need to be lower.
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[18:57] I think it's going to be very very hard for rates to go up from here. And so I think rates are going to be capped at this four or 5% max level for a long time and likely be suppressed lower
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[0:04] rates are still going to come down this year
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[22:16] if you have me estimate our interest rates going to go structurally up over the next say 10 years I would say probably not. Uh my base case would be choppy sideways for quite a while.
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[20:15] no matter what the Fed does in the short run, long-term interest rates are headed up back to the levels that they were in the early 1980s, which most people have forgotten, even the US government was paying 15, 16, 17% for for to sell tea bills. U back in the early 1980s, uh we're headed back there just because of the debasement of the currency.
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[3:46] I do think personally we will get a December rate cut.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points on December 10, 2025, lowering the federal funds rate target range to 3.50%–3.75%, confirming the prediction was correct. (https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20251210a.htm)
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[0:04] Interest rates will be zero by June of next year.
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[24:47] the markets are expecting a 3% funds rate by next spring, early summer. That's kind of the equilibrium rate that's already priced in.
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[5:17] we have bottomed in that cycle and we're expecting interest rates to go up over the next 5 10 15 years.
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[32:01] 2026, as you asked me the question, I think we're going to um you know, unavoidably lower rates in a big way.
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[47:07] Now the real interest rate actually has gone up to about 1.7% or something like that. And I I think I think it probably will go up to, you know, like two and a half or 3% something in that zone.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
The 10-year TIPS real yield (the standard benchmark for real interest rates) remained well below the predicted 2.5%–3% range throughout 2025. A November 2025 TIPS auction priced at 1.843%, and by end-of-year the rate was still around 1.8–1.9%, far short of the 2.5%–3% target. (https://tipswatch.com/2025/11/20/10-year-tips-reopening-auction-gets-real-yield-of-1-843-to-lukewarm-demand/)