Adrian Day Predictions
President of Adrian Day Asset Management and Portfolio Manager
Track Adrian Day's public market predictions and forecast accuracy. Each prediction is recorded from the date it was published to its estimated deadline, then graded correct or wrong based on the outcome.
- Rankings only reflect predictions tracked on this site and do not represent a predictor's full record.
- Grading involves judgment and may not always be clear-cut.
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[25:30] I think that outperformance is going to continue for the next several years so we are definitely looking and with the markets all down because of the of the uh Iran situation and the oil price, we are looking for opportunities in in foreign markets.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
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[17:16] the crop yields, uh, you know, 6 months from now will be undoubtedly softer. I'll use the word soft, which is a nice a nice um a nice neutral word, but they'll be softer uh than maybe anticipated.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
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[5:14] my base case would be 50, but I don't think 75 is off the table
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
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[0:18] I I truly find it difficult to envisage a scenario in the next 12 months where gold will be lower, and that makes me nervous
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
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[0:07] the gold stocks will do significantly better than bullion
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
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[25:51] I think the US stock market is is potentially reaching the point the tipping point where where it will where the leaders will roll over and we'll see a a correction in the S&P. Uh I'm not looking for a crash or collapse but we'll probably get rotation out of those leaders
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
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[17:54] I mean I think the dollar uh the dollar is going to continue to be weak
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
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[12:18] So I think a correction now is certainly in the cards. Uh is certainly you know uh a a strong possibil probability but I don't see I don't see it going back to where we started the year.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
The prediction claimed a dollar correction upward but not back to year-start levels ($109.39); the dollar did correct upward to a period high of $101.98 on 2025-05-12, which is above the prediction date price of $99.61, and this high ($101.98) remains below the year-start level ($109.39), so both conditions of the prediction were met.
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[12:33] I think in the near term the stock market is going to be strong.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
The prediction claimed the stock market would be 'strong in the near term' with a bullish sentiment, and the period high of $6532.65 represents a 16.0% gain from the prediction date price of $5631.28, exceeding the directional claim and demonstrating market strength during the 4-month window.
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[30:20] The question is when do they start QE? When do they start buying bonds? Um and I think that's coming soon.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
The Fed ended quantitative tightening (QT) on December 1, 2025, but did NOT restart QE (active bond buying). As Babypips noted, 'ending QT is not the same as restarting full-scale quantitative easing' and 'the Fed has not launched a new bond-buying spree.' The prediction specifically claimed the Fed would start 'buying bonds,' which did not occur within the target period. (https://www.babypips.com/news/explainer-2025-12-03-fed-ends-qt-why-it-matters)