Richard Smith Predictions
Executive Chairman of the Foundation for the Study of Cycles
Track Richard Smith's public market predictions and forecast accuracy. Each prediction is recorded from the date it was published to its estimated deadline, then graded correct or wrong based on the outcome.
- Rankings only reflect predictions tracked on this site and do not represent a predictor's full record.
- Grading involves judgment and may not always be clear-cut.
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[5:17] we have bottomed in that cycle and we're expecting interest rates to go up over the next 5 10 15 years.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
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[0:12] I am expecting a near-term rally in the dollar but longer term I think the dollar has structural problems
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[14:54] The daily data are suggesting down in the near term as well into October, November.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
The prediction claimed the S&P 500 would decline in the near term into October and November, but the period low of $6521.92 represents only a 2.8% decline from the prediction date price of $6711.2, while the index ultimately closed 2.1% higher on the target date, showing the market did not sustain a meaningful downward move as predicted.
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[10:50] you know the Federal Reserve may try to lower rates more but they're going to be struggling with sticky to higher inflation. And interestingly also there's a 67month cycle in the unemployment rate and we're also into a rising unemployment trend according to that cycle uh as well that still has some room to run. So yes, we are seeing higher pressures on unemployment and we've been we anticipated those a while ago. So there is pressure for the Fed to lower rates based on higher unemployment, but it's happening in the face of persistent and sticky and probably even rising inflation over the next 12 to 18 months.
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[11:06] And interestingly also there's a 67month cycle in the unemployment rate and we're also into a rising unemployment trend according to that cycle uh as well that still has some room to run.
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[30:14] And we're seeing it at a topping phase of the cycle right now. And again down here we see this is a proprietary uh momentum indicator. It's called the cyclic RSI. And we can see that we have a series of descending uh tops in momentum while we have an ascending series of prices. So this is a classic momentum divergence situation and um and the cycle is uh just past its peak. So on a weekly basis, uh, I'd say that's of concern.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.