Phil Streible Predictions
Chief Market Strategist, Blue Line Futures
Track Phil Streible's public market predictions and forecast accuracy. Each prediction is recorded from the date it was published to its estimated deadline, then graded correct or wrong based on the outcome.
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[8:36] I I think that gold has already seen much of the selloff that we're going to have. I don't see this really turning into a substantially larger move down on this market. We've come, you know, we've fallen $150 down in one day. We've got a little bit of an extension lower here today, but we've had a $600 run. Um, so $150 is just a correction.
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[9:01] What would change my mind? Maybe a close below like 4350. That's where you give back everything in August on that breakout. But until then, we're probably going to see buyers add on the dips here between um, you know, here and those lower levels.
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[28:41] I still like the gold market to the upside. I mean, if you look, September tends to be a little bit of a soft patch for the gold market. August, the last two weeks have seasonally been strong, up 13 out of the last 15 years. We've seen that closing out today. It'll be higher up. But then you go to September 29th and you go out into October, gold up about 13 out of 15 years. Then you go to about Thanksgiving on, it tends to rise up until January. So I like the seasonal tailwinds... it has all the makeup and the character there for um a nice rally until the end of the year.
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[23:06] we do see a scenario where we can recapture 5,000. And what that would be is that you would have to see some of this this inflation that's driven by some of these events start to die down. You would need the Fed to all of a sudden realize that, hey, we're not on as firm footing. We're not going to raise rates. And then ultimately some of the weakness that continues in consumer confidence, labor market, we get to finding inflation numbers. You all of a sudden get rate cuts starting to be priced into the market. And then that's where gold really accelerates higher
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[14:49] buyers are coming in at that silver market and that's why I believe that we are going to start moving consistently higher. you know, um the key levels you don't want to see it take out 60, the psychological level, the 50-day moving average, 6268. Um the Treasury announcement date, that was 6325. And then you go to the upside, that 100 day moving average, we couldn't close above it. So there's your resistance point. And if we can close above it, well, the 200 day moving average 7365, that would be my next upside call above that kind of breakout there
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[13:18] your levels in that piece that you wrote on kick co kind of 74 first then 90 then 100 before year end was 63 to 60 as the floor.
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[12:24] if I was running some kind of more balanced book where I was long gold and silver, I would look at the short side of platinum and palladium um on some key setups on there.
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[12:19] those two markets, they tend to fall much more dramatic than they do rise. So, if you know, if I was running some kind of more balanced book where I was long gold and silver, I would look at the short side of platinum and palladium um on some key setups on there.
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[3:54] we do believe that the Federal Reserve if they do raise rates that it will be a policy mistake here and ultimately it will need to be undone in the near future.
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[19:13] every time the Fed has hiked into a flattening curve. The curve has been right and the Fed has been, you know, too early on raising rates. So ultimately what would end up happening in that situation is the Fed will ultimately have to cut rates.
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[27:26] Bitcoin took off pushed on up to about 82,000 ran into some resistance. I do have some clients that are skeptical about it. Um, and they think that prices would pull back. So, they are picking up some of the put options that are like 60 days out.
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