Garey Aitken Predictions
Head of Canadian Equities, Franklin Templeton ClearBridge Investments
Track Garey Aitken's public market predictions and forecast accuracy. Each prediction is recorded from the date it was published to its estimated deadline, then graded correct or wrong based on the outcome.
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[3:13] I would expect that, you know, we'll we'll go through all-time highs here and you know, I think that, you know, there's still some multiple expansion, but you know, we're we're kind of getting into the the later innings of that that relative trade.
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[8:50] we're going to stick with it. And you know, we've really bought uh quite a bit of stock in in recent quarters. And... we still think that there's lots of you know, great years ahead of this business.
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[12:35] I think that it's another story where, you know, we will make a lot of money from here.
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[17:02] When we do our work, we think that we're buying Thompson at close to 50 cents on the dollar. So, if we're right, you know, we're going to make outsize returns probably for the next decade here.
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[5:43] as good as this has been um ultimately it sets up for probably you know a little bit less rosy scenario going forward just because of where valuations have gone. So, you know, there's no question that we're, you know, borrowing from the future a little bit, if you will. To the extent we've seen returns 15 20% for quite lengthy periods of time, think of that as being above trend.
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[9:21] I guess a little bit we are Amber and you know I I did see David Rosenberg's piece and I think there was a lot of validity to his thesis there. At the same time, you know, we're we're we're long um for for banks in particular. I would say that we're underweight banks and we've been using it at the margin as a source of cash. So our activity in banks in recent quarters has been to uh trim albeit modestly trim the banks
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[14:00] I'm probably a little bit more excited about energy still from here than banks. Um, it's an uncertain path to be sure, but I think that the riskreward is still, you know, for a pretty good setup and I can certainly see scenarios where oil is high for longer, not necessarily higher for longer. And in in you know that kind of world, I think that these oil stocks have room to go a fair bit higher even from where we are.
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[38:05] I think that there's more, you know, there there's more here on CN Rail. I would expect that, you know, we'll we'll go through all-time highs here. And you know, I think that you know, there's still some multiple expansion, but you know, we're we're kind of getting into the the later innings of that that relative trade.
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[42:51] This stock has seen a massive correction in terms of its multiple. We still think that there's lots of, you know, great years ahead of this business. I think that there's still acquisition opportunities... I think that we're going to see, you know, that a more consistent profile of organic growth or same store sales growth.
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