Bob Elliott Predictions
CEO and CIO of Unlimited
Track Bob Elliott's public market predictions and forecast accuracy. Each prediction is recorded from the date it was published to its estimated deadline, then graded correct or wrong based on the outcome.
- Rankings only reflect predictions tracked on this site and do not represent a predictor's full record.
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[3:25] I think we're seeing a pretty different circumstance right now which is expectations for future growth that are priced into the stock market are very high uh and remain very high and makes sense. you know, prices are basically at all-time highs, but at the same time, you're seeing a pretty rapid deceleration in the actual economic stats. And that sort of divergence suggests that we might be seeing uh a season of disappointment ahead when it comes to how the economy will perform relative to expectations.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
The prediction claimed a 'season of disappointment' due to growth expectations diverging from decelerating economic data, which is a bearish outlook expecting underperformance. However, the S&P 500 rose 10.3% from the prediction date to the target date close, and reached a period high of $6945.77 (11.6% gain), contradicting the bearish thesis that the market would experience disappointment.
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[17:32] Yeah, well I think we've got a long way to go uh in terms of adjusting the dollar to essentially where it's uh it's closer to being of fair value... we're likely entering a longer term phase where the dollar sees a lot of, you know, is sort of getting the short end of the stick in terms of, you know, global investment flows.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
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[11:32] Typically, hiring slowing of hiring leads layoffs. If you go back and look at the uh at the the 2008 cycle, uh hiring slowed ahead of the layoffs that eventually occurred. If you look at the 2000 cycle, you see the same thing. And so and that lead is usually something like 6 to 12 months um in in those past couple of cycles... you know, it probably won't be long. If there are signs of slowing demand, which is really what businesses respond to, right? If are they seeing sales or they not seeing sales, that's when you could start to see uh you could start to see layoffs start to pick up
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
The prediction was correct: layoffs surged sharply following the hiring slowdown, with annual layoffs and discharges increasing by 1.2 million (58% more than 2024) in 2025, the highest rate since the 2020 pandemic — consistent with the predicted 6–12 month lag pattern. (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-saw-pandemic-level-layoffs-140000874.html)
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[25:10] this is probably, you know, a later second half story before we can really uh make a good case or or or a good judgment about whether or not higher tariffs is actually flowing through to domestic prices. That being said, the idea that there's going to, you know, the idea there's going to be a sort of a more significant, you know, wage spiral or inflationary spiral here, we're it's probably not going to happen. And so, you know, it's almost certainly not going to happen. We're talking about 50 or 100 basis points on core PCE at the most in terms of the flow through of the tariffs
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
The prediction was broadly correct: tariff effects became apparent in H2 2025, with the St. Louis Fed estimating tariffs explained ~0.4 pp of core PCE annualized inflation through August, and Yale Budget Lab showing PCE core goods up 2.0% for 2025 through December — within or just at the upper end of the 50-100 bps range predicted. No wage/inflationary spiral materialized, consistent with the prediction. (https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2025/oct/how-tariffs-are-affecting-prices-2025)
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[37:21] I mean, maybe they cut once, but it's not, you know, this is not um I think a lot of people really popped up on this idea that that there's going to be, you know, a shadow fed chair and that the the Fed's going to be pushed into uh easing materially. Like, I'd probably describe it this way. If we get anything more than roughly, you know, zero or one cuts, um it's the type of conditions that you sure don't want to be holding equities in.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
The Federal Reserve cut interest rates three times in 2025 (starting in September), ending the year with the federal funds rate at 3.5%–3.75%. The prediction of 'zero to one cuts' was incorrect. (https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/markets-and-economy/economy/fed-meeting-january-2026)