Adam Parker Predictions
CEO and founder of Trivariat Research
Track Adam Parker's public market predictions and forecast accuracy. Each prediction is recorded from the date it was published to its estimated deadline, then graded correct or wrong based on the outcome.
- Rankings only reflect predictions tracked on this site and do not represent a predictor's full record.
- Grading involves judgment and may not always be clear-cut.
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[5:17] I think the skew is definitely still negative into April earnings.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
The prediction claimed negative skew (more downside risk) into April earnings, but the S&P 500 experienced a 4.56% decline from prediction date to period low followed by a strong 10% recovery to close, demonstrating positive upside momentum and lower realized downside risk than predicted, contradicting the bearish skew thesis.
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[11:32] Our top choice has been healthcare this year. Uh all year we haven't changed that recommendation.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
The prediction claimed healthcare would outperform in 2025, but XLV gained 16.7% while the S&P 500 (^GSPC) gained 35.2%, meaning healthcare significantly underperformed the broader market during the prediction period.
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[12:41] And then our least favorite this year all year has been consumer discretionary, which has worked
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.